|
|
Analysis of anti-crisis measures with the help of basic tools of economic theory
Marholtová, Lenka ; Fantová Šumpíková, Markéta (advisor) ; Dvořák, Pavel (referee)
The theoretical part describes and summarizes the causes and consequences of the crisis for the world especially for the ČR. It also describes the measures that should help the Czech Republic to cope with the crisis. The main point of the practical work is based on the planting of anti-crisis measures described in the theoretical part of the economic models and interpretation and prediction of the economic situation after the action. The main contribution of this work is mainly in the fact that after reading the reader should be able to understand what the implications might be measures for the economy of the ČR.
|
|
|
Analysis of Stock Exchange Data to UI Methods
Kutina, Michal ; Jelínek, Jiří (advisor) ; Dvořák, Pavel (referee)
The graduation thesis "Analysis of stock-exchange data using AI methods" is focused on the use of neural networks while predicating the exchange-rate movements on Change. The theoretical part is divided into three independent units. The Change matters and the related individual terms are described in the first part. In the second part, the two basic approaches to the stock-exchange data analysis are analyzed, these two approaches being the fundamental and technical analysis. The third, and the last, theoretical part forms an individual unit describing the Artificial Intelligence theory. Particularly the issue of the neuronal networks is described in detail. The practical part seeks the use for the chosen neuronal network GAME. It analyses the chosen YMZ9 market. It focuses on the prediction of the exchange-rate movements using the "sliding window" method. The last chapter summarizes the results and it proves that under certain circumstances it is possible to properly use the neuronal networks both for the prediction of the stock-exchange movements and as one of the corner-stones of the profitable trading system.
|
|
|
Actual economic position of USA and prediction to the future
Vlčková, Milada ; Janíčko, Martin (advisor) ; Mikuláštík, Robert (referee)
The aim of this work is to analyse the actual state of the U.S. economy (from the viewpoint of some basic economic indicators). Then I tried to predict a future trend of indicators in the next couple of years. By using statistical data, found at the websites of international organizations ( OECD,IMF etc.), I attempted to estimate the actual position of the U.S economy in the context of phase of economic cycle. Working with coincident, leading and lagging indicators, I was searching for the changes and fluctuations in economic situation. All the indicators I compared with actual real gross domestic product. With the respect for rational economic interpretation, I predicted the tendencies in the economy of the U.S in future time period. For modelling the future situation I used an econometric program GiveWin. Finally I tried to estimate the lenght of the period, in which the indicators will return to their long-term equilibrium.
|
|
| |
|
|
Possibilities of the tax yield predictions - theoretical aspects and factors influencing the revenue taxes yield
Stratil, Zdeněk ; Klazar, Stanislav (advisor) ; Schvábová, Andrea (referee)
My bachelor work considers the theoretical aspects of tax yield predictions. The main goal of the work is identification the factors, which are influencing these predictions and especially revenue taxes. The factors are divided according to measure of influencing the prediction. First group includes the general factors, for example political and technological influence. The factors in next group are directly entering the forecasting models, there are the main macroeconomical indicators like economic growth, inflation, structure of labour market, etc. The last part of the work analyses the particular factors influencing the prediction of the revenue taxes yield.
|
|
|
Revenue forecasting in municipal budgets
Talíř, Jan ; Sedmihradská, Lucie (advisor) ; Slintáková, Barbora (referee)
The focus of the thesis is set on different ways of analyses of revenue forecasts, their compilation and integration into budget procedure of a certain municipality, in this case Polička. The thesis aims to analyze the ability of the municipality to forecast its revenues as close as possible and to find out whether the forecast can be even more accurate with the help of several statistical methods. A certain part of the thesis is devoted to a description of a method how the municipality forecasts its revenues and what is done before the budget is approved. The result of the thesis shows that the forecasts of the tax revenues are relatively accurate. Futhermore, used methods of revenue forecast are not appropriate for all the revenues in the same way. Therefore it is not advisable to forecast particular revenue by the same method.
|
|
|
Finanční tíseň podniku a možnosti jejího řešení
Adamec, Tomáš ; Ducheček, František (advisor)
Práce se zabývá příčinami vzniku finanční tísně, možnostmi jejího měření a některými modely predikce finanční tísně. Dále obsahuje popis dodatečných nákladů finanční tísně a hodnotí stav konkurzního řízení v České republice. V závěru se práce věnuje možnostem řešení finanční tísně, konkrétně metodám záchovným i nezáchovným.
|
|
|
Structure and properties of GARCH(1,1) model
Maštalíř, Jakub ; Pígl, Jan (advisor)
The aim of this thesis is to introduce the reader an econometric approach to financial time series volatility modeling and scrutinize construction, properties and constraints of the popular GARCH(1,1) model when applying it on real market data and in wider sense than it's usually presented in reference literature. In the section 1 we'll repeat some important statistical terms of time series econometrics, which will be needed in next sections. We'll talk a little bit more generally about volatility of an asset, its modeling and measuring at all, because the true values are actually unknown and we observe just its demonstration on the markets. We'll mention some important statistical tools operating as an irreplaceable component of the GARCH(1,1) model, which will be introduce in the section 2. We'll scrutinize its specific properties, advantages, constraints and indeed the statistical inference. Because it's considered as a flexible model with rather general structure we'll also discuss some complications which can occur during its applications and convenient ways to solve them. Implementation of the model will be presented in the section 3. We'll use real market data and show clear demonstration of the scrutinized properties. At the end we'll verify how the model is significant when explaining the volatility of an asset.
|
|
|
Analýza vývoje federálního dluhu v USA
Cigler, Roman ; Izák, Vratislav (advisor)
Práce popisuje vývoj federálního dluhu ve Spojených státech amerických - stručně do roku 1981, poté podrobněji. Týká se prezidentů Reagana, Clintona, Bushe sr. a Bushe jr. V každém roce období 1981 - 2005 je analyzován federální rozpočet - zda vznikl přebytek či deficit, včetně analýzy vývoje federálních příjmů a federálních výdajů. V práci je také obsažen odhadovaný vývoj pro léta 2007 - 2012.
|
|
|
Usage possibilities of nontraditional quantitative methods for financial crises prediction.
Hájek, Petr ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Nováček, Jan (referee) ; Dvořák, Pavel (referee)
Práce je rozdělena na tři části. V teoretické části práce jsou přiblíženy významné krize za posledních několik set let, typologie krizí, selhání finančních trhů dle P. Krugmana, generační modely, cenové bubliny, souvislost kapitálových toků a dluhového problému, nákaza, prevence před krizemi a jejich management. V druhé části jsou v rámci popisu současného stavu bádání v oblasti predikce finančních krizí citovány desítky studií. Jejich výsledky jsou následně porovnány. Pozornost je také věnována definici finanční krize. Ve třetí části je provedena aplikace metody Latent Semantic Indexing (LSI) na úlohu predikce finančních krizí. Testovanou hypotézou je předpoklad, že akciové trhy dokáží během jednoho čtvrtletí (64 pozorování akciového trhu) reflektovat budoucí vývoj v měnové politice (během dalších 128 pozorování). Tato hypotéza byla na vzorku 39 zemí, intervalu let 1985 - 2007 a interpretace vývoje úrokových sazeb a měnového kurzu domácí měny vůči USD v disertační práci potvrzena. Uvedená metoda LSI a její studovaná aplikace na akciovém trhu, přestože dokázala nalézt několik krizí i přesně na den, je vhodná spíše pro specifikaci a analýzu křehkých období, kdy ke krizi může dojít, než přímo k předpovídání krizí.
|
guest ::
