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Exchange rate prediction using fundamental analysis
Parmová, Jana ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
Bachelor project is focused on forecasting of exchange rate development. There are used basic economic fundamentals for this prediction: price level, inflation, interest rate and balance of payments. Models of exchange rate determination, based on these fundamentals, are introduced in the project. There are described concretely: purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, international Fisher effect and balance of payments theory. Validity of these theories is analyzed in practical part of this project. There are used economic dates from Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. Analysis is processed according to methods described in theoretical part. Results show, that using of methods based on inflation or interest rate is incorrect. Balance of payment theory seems to hold, but prediction of exchange rate development through this method is very complicated. Central banks of analysed countries present in financial stability reports, that exchange rate is determined by a lot of factors. So it is very difficult to comprise the factors into one model.
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Methods of prediction of exchange rate and analysis of the exchange rate of selected country
Burdeláková, Ingrida ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with possibilities of prediction of future development of exchange rate. The exchange rate is shortly characterized at the beginning together with approaches of its determination like technical and fundamental analysis. Further three methods of long-time forecasting like purchasing power parity, interest rate parity and balance of payments theory are explained in more details. Practical part begins with description of the euro and real development of its exchange rate to U.S. dollar from the implementation of the euro in 1999 till the end of the year 2009. The validity of individual theories from the theoretical part is verified through formulas and other methods based on information about inflation rate, interest rate and balances of payments. Results of selected approaches are summarized in conclusion together with suitability of their practical application and possible reasons of differences between theory and reality.
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An assessment of prediction ability of prediction models based on accountancy data of companies Jitex a.s. and Moira CZ a.s.
Vlasáková, Soňa ; Strnad, Lucien (advisor) ; Smrčka, Luboš (referee)
The main goal of this bachelor thesis is to assess the prediction ability of prediction models. The prediction ability is tested on 2 companies. One is considered to be failed and the other one non-failed and successful. Therefore Jitex a.s. and Moira CZ a.s. have been chosen. This bachelor thesis is also aiming to provide with sufficient theoretical basis connected with a prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Along with this it contains adequate facts, which are necessary for an application of prediction models. The end of this bachelor thesis leads to a clear assessment of all selected prediction models and it aims to identify a model, which is the most suitable for an application in the Czech business environment.
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The Access of Czech companies to Eastern Markets
Krutiš, Martin ; Petříček, Václav (advisor) ; Čajka, Radek (referee)
The bachelor thesis deals with the development of bilateral economic relations between the Czech Republic and the Russian Federation and analyzes potential eastern markets for Czech companies, with main focus on the huge Russian market. The first chapter deals with the history of trade between the two countries since the Second World War to the new millennium. The second and third chapter examine the export opportunities in various sectors of the emerging Russian market and the obstacles and barriers to trade, which the Czech companies have to deal with. In the fourth chapter the thesis presents the success of Czech companies on the Russian market. In the final chapter, the thesis deals with predictions of further developments on the Russian market and prospects of Czech companies in this territory.
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Analysis of anti-crisis measures with the help of basic tools of economic theory
Marholtová, Lenka ; Fantová Šumpíková, Markéta (advisor) ; Dvořák, Pavel (referee)
The theoretical part describes and summarizes the causes and consequences of the crisis for the world especially for the ČR. It also describes the measures that should help the Czech Republic to cope with the crisis. The main point of the practical work is based on the planting of anti-crisis measures described in the theoretical part of the economic models and interpretation and prediction of the economic situation after the action. The main contribution of this work is mainly in the fact that after reading the reader should be able to understand what the implications might be measures for the economy of the ČR.
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Analysis of Stock Exchange Data to UI Methods
Kutina, Michal ; Jelínek, Jiří (advisor) ; Dvořák, Pavel (referee)
The graduation thesis "Analysis of stock-exchange data using AI methods" is focused on the use of neural networks while predicating the exchange-rate movements on Change. The theoretical part is divided into three independent units. The Change matters and the related individual terms are described in the first part. In the second part, the two basic approaches to the stock-exchange data analysis are analyzed, these two approaches being the fundamental and technical analysis. The third, and the last, theoretical part forms an individual unit describing the Artificial Intelligence theory. Particularly the issue of the neuronal networks is described in detail. The practical part seeks the use for the chosen neuronal network GAME. It analyses the chosen YMZ9 market. It focuses on the prediction of the exchange-rate movements using the "sliding window" method. The last chapter summarizes the results and it proves that under certain circumstances it is possible to properly use the neuronal networks both for the prediction of the stock-exchange movements and as one of the corner-stones of the profitable trading system.
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Actual economic position of USA and prediction to the future
Vlčková, Milada ; Janíčko, Martin (advisor) ; Mikuláštík, Robert (referee)
The aim of this work is to analyse the actual state of the U.S. economy (from the viewpoint of some basic economic indicators). Then I tried to predict a future trend of indicators in the next couple of years. By using statistical data, found at the websites of international organizations ( OECD,IMF etc.), I attempted to estimate the actual position of the U.S economy in the context of phase of economic cycle. Working with coincident, leading and lagging indicators, I was searching for the changes and fluctuations in economic situation. All the indicators I compared with actual real gross domestic product. With the respect for rational economic interpretation, I predicted the tendencies in the economy of the U.S in future time period. For modelling the future situation I used an econometric program GiveWin. Finally I tried to estimate the lenght of the period, in which the indicators will return to their long-term equilibrium.
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Possibilities of the tax yield predictions - theoretical aspects and factors influencing the revenue taxes yield
Stratil, Zdeněk ; Klazar, Stanislav (advisor) ; Schvábová, Andrea (referee)
My bachelor work considers the theoretical aspects of tax yield predictions. The main goal of the work is identification the factors, which are influencing these predictions and especially revenue taxes. The factors are divided according to measure of influencing the prediction. First group includes the general factors, for example political and technological influence. The factors in next group are directly entering the forecasting models, there are the main macroeconomical indicators like economic growth, inflation, structure of labour market, etc. The last part of the work analyses the particular factors influencing the prediction of the revenue taxes yield.
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Structure and properties of GARCH(1,1) model
Maštalíř, Jakub ; Pígl, Jan (advisor)
The aim of this thesis is to introduce the reader an econometric approach to financial time series volatility modeling and scrutinize construction, properties and constraints of the popular GARCH(1,1) model when applying it on real market data and in wider sense than it's usually presented in reference literature. In the section 1 we'll repeat some important statistical terms of time series econometrics, which will be needed in next sections. We'll talk a little bit more generally about volatility of an asset, its modeling and measuring at all, because the true values are actually unknown and we observe just its demonstration on the markets. We'll mention some important statistical tools operating as an irreplaceable component of the GARCH(1,1) model, which will be introduce in the section 2. We'll scrutinize its specific properties, advantages, constraints and indeed the statistical inference. Because it's considered as a flexible model with rather general structure we'll also discuss some complications which can occur during its applications and convenient ways to solve them. Implementation of the model will be presented in the section 3. We'll use real market data and show clear demonstration of the scrutinized properties. At the end we'll verify how the model is significant when explaining the volatility of an asset.
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