|
|
Electoral volatility in European Parliament Elections in V4 Countries: 2004-2019
Mertlík, Arnošt ; Linek, Lukáš (advisor) ; Dvořák, Tomáš (referee)
This diploma thesis focuses on changes in voting behaviour among voters in the Visegrad Group states (V4), specifically electoral volatility between the European Parliament elections and the national elections in the particular state. The approach to examining electoral volatility in this work is based on the second-order national elections theory, which divides elections into less and more important ones. The aim of the work is first to describe the overall electoral volatility in the V4 states in a cross-section of all European elections based on individual data from post-election questionnaire surveys. Subsequently, I find out what are the specific causes and motivations for changes in electoral behaviour. The analysis shows that there are several different patterns of volatile behaviour in the V4 countries, but the consistent and general pattern is a high degree of electoral demobilisation in the European elections. This may be due to political attitudes or the level of trust in the European institutions. I then analyze voters' demobilization among government and opposition voters, who differ mainly in their views of the national political situation. Keywords Electoral volatility, vote switching, electoral behaviour, second-order national election theory, European Parliament elections,...
|
|
|
Legitimacy of Democracy in the Czech Republic: Support for Democracy by Young People and Older Generations
Znamenáčková, Alena ; Císař, Ondřej (advisor) ; Dvořák, Tomáš (referee)
The aim of this diploma thesis was to analyze support for democracy and find out whether there are differences in democracy support by younger and older generations. Furthermore, differences in democracy support were determined for subgroups defined by socio- demographic factors (education, gender, size of the place of residence) and political attitudes (the left-right scale of political orientations, sympathy for the KSČM, satisfaction with the economic situation and the Czech government) and was analyzed the influence of these factors on democracy support. For the needs of this work were used secondary data from the 4th wave of the research Transformations of Czech Society from 2018. Attitudes towards democracy and support for democracy in subgroups were analyzed through descriptive statistics and pairwise comparisons. The influence of selected factors on democracy support was analyzed by binary logistic regression. The results show a relatively high level of support for democracy, but also differences in the level of support according to the type of question which was used. In the evaluation of regime types, democracy was evaluated as the best regime. But exists a group of people who would support alternative forms under certain conditions, or who are resigned to the type of regime in which they...
|
|
|
Electoral volatility in European Parliament Elections in V4 Countries: 2004-2019
Mertlík, Arnošt ; Linek, Lukáš (advisor) ; Dvořák, Tomáš (referee)
This diploma thesis focuses on changes in voting behaviour among voters in the Visegrad Group states (V4), specifically electoral volatility between the European Parliament elections and the national elections in the particular state. The approach to examining electoral volatility in this work is based on the second-order national elections theory, which divides elections into less and more important ones. The aim of the work is first to describe the overall electoral volatility in the V4 states in a cross-section of all European elections based on individual data from post-election questionnaire surveys. Subsequently, I find out what are the specific causes and motivations for changes in electoral behaviour. The analysis shows that there are several different patterns of volatile behaviour in the V4 countries, but the consistent and general pattern is a high degree of electoral demobilisation in the European elections. This may be due to political attitudes or the level of trust in the European institutions. I then analyze voters' demobilization among government and opposition voters, who differ mainly in their views of the national political situation. Keywords Electoral volatility, vote switching, electoral behaviour, second-order national election theory, European Parliament elections,...
|
|
| |
|
|
Models of binary time series
Kunayová, Monika ; Zichová, Jitka (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with the time series of binary variables that exist in many social spheres. The indicator may denote a certain value being exceeded or a phenomenon occurring. We study a model of logistic autoregression and its properties, partial likelihood function which allows us to work with dependent data, and derive useful relationships for a practical application that consists of time series simulation and real data analysis using free software R.
|
|
|
Comparison of Heuristic and Conventional Statistical Methods in Data Mining
Bitara, Matúš ; Žák, Libor (referee) ; Bednář, Josef (advisor)
The thesis deals with the comparison of conventional and heuristic methods in data mining used for binary classification. In the theoretical part, four different models are described. Model classification is demonstrated on simple examples. In the practical part, models are compared on real data. This part also consists of data cleaning, outliers removal, two different transformations and dimension reduction. In the last part methods used to quality testing of models are described.
|
|
|
Risk factors affecting endometriosis in women of reproductive age, ALSWH Study
Olšarová, Karolína ; Dzúrová, Dagmar (advisor) ; Pikhart, Hynek (referee)
This thesis adapts a life course approach in epidemiology to endometriosis. Endometriosis is a highly prevalent chronic disease affecting women in reproductive age. Firstly, the topic of this disease is introduced, the situation and current knowledge in Australia is discussed. Positive changes in a national level are presented. Secondly, early life exposers and maternal behaviour are investigated as possible risk and protective factors. A systematic review of early life factors identified a low birthweight and formula feeding of infants as risk factors for the development of endometriosis. Lastly, the relation of birthweight, weight at childhood and endometriosis was analysed using data of Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Other risk and protective factors were evaluated and included into the analysis. Logistic regression was used for determination of statistical significance. High weight at 10 years old was found to be a protective factor against endometriosis.
|
|
|
Relation between Economic Situation and Political Stability
JAKLOVÁ, Kamila
The political parties use the economic situation of the state as one of their arguments in their electoral strategy. The aim of the thesis is to depict the impact of the economic situation in selected European countries on voters' decision making. Selected economic indicators, such as gross domestic product, unemployment, inflation, tax on personal income, balance of trade and debt are compared with the impact on voters' decision making in these countries with the application of Logistic Regression. This method determines the degree of impact of individual economic indicators on the political stability of selected countries. The data used in this work are based on the publicly available database of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in years 2007-2017. The result of the analysis determines appropriate economic indicators for political election strategies.
|
|
|
Neural networks and tree-based credit scoring models
Turlík, Tomáš ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Fanta, Nicolas (referee)
The most basic task in credit scoring is to classify potential borrowers as "good" or "bad" based on the probability that they would default in the case they would be accepted. In this thesis we compare widely used lo- gistic regression, neural networks and tree-based ensemble models. During the construction of neural network models we utilize recent techniques and advances in the field of deep learning, while for the tree-based models we use popular bagging, boosting and random forests ensembling algorithms. Performance of the models is measured by ROC AUC metric, which should provide better information value than average accuracy alone. Our results suggest small or even no difference between models, when in the best case scenario neural networks, boosted ensembles and stacked ensembles result in only approximately 1%−2% larger ROC AUC value than logistic regression. Keywords credit scoring, neural networks, decision tree, bagging, boosting, random forest, ensemble, ROC curve
|
|
|
Landslide susceptibility analysis of Czechia
Racek, Ondřej ; Blahůt, Jan (advisor) ; Klimeš, Jan (referee)
In geosciences modelling is rather quickly developing discipline. Statistical modelling of landslide susceptibility is relatively more traditional approach. Nevertheless, more complicated statistical methods are being developed and applied on larger areas. This development is caused especially by increasing computational capacity and software. This diploma thesis summarises existing statistical landslide susceptibility modelling approaches. In the following part, several landslide susceptibility models were created for the area of Czechia. These models were created using logistic regression, naive Bayes and artificial neural network (ANN). Additionally, two more models were created using expert driven approach. All models were made using thirteen conditioning factors, i.e.elevation, slope, engineering geological regions, climatic areas, mean annual precipitation, topographic wetness index (TWI), aspect, orogenetic class, distance from confirmed fault, distance from watercourse, internal relief, land cover and slope shape. Models driven by statistical approach were created using Orange software. Landslide inventories that were used for construction of all models are based on two databases: "Registr svahových nestabilit" and "Registr sesuvů-Geofond". Using validation by SRC, PRC and ROC curves...
|
guest ::
