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Selected Models of Exchange Rate Determination
Vrubel, Tomáš ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
The aim of this Master Thesis is to summarize the modern theoretical models of fundamental determination of exchange rates. The Thesis contains of Introduction, four explanatory chapters and the conclusion. The first chapter provides the definition of traditional premises (PPP, IRP, expectations) and in the end of the chapter the 5-equation model is introduced. The second chapter focuses the attention on both equilibrium (Bilson-Frenkel) and non equilibrium (Dornbusch, Frankel) monetary models. In the end of the chapter there are also briefly mentioned Hooper-Morton's and Girton-Ropers models. The third chapter brings in the risk and it is focused on portfolio models. The last chapter describes the Lyons-Evans model of market microstructure based on order flow.
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How Commodity Prices Influence Over the Currency Movements
Pečeňa, Lukáš ; Karpová, Eva (advisor) ; Jelínek, Tomáš (referee)
The bachelor`s thesis describes intermarket correlation of foreign exchange market and commodity market. Intermarket correlation is demonstrated on example of movements of commodity prices and of commodity currencies. The bachelor`s thesis defines the commodity currencies as national currencies of states that tend to export commodities. Such description corresponds with countries like Australia, Canada and New Zealand. The aim of the bachelor`s thesis is to specify the basic factors that determinate a currency exchange rate, furthermore to give fundamental economic overview of Australia, Canada and New Zealand and above all to prove dependence of exchange rates of commodity currencies and a price of commodity that these countries mainly export. In the conclusion the author summed up all the evidences he had reached during the writing of the thesis. At last there is also an outline how use such evidences.
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External Economic Balance of the Czech Republic
Beran, Michal ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Jiránková, Martina (referee)
The thesis analyses the trend in external economic balance of the Czech Republic since 2000. The main instruments for the analysis were found in level of balance of payments and external debt statistics. The emphasis is also placed on exchange rate of Czech currency which is considered to be one of the leading determinants of external economic relations. The main goal of this paper lies in examination of past, present and also expected future trend in external balance with respect to various indicators and to comparison with other EU members, especially with Central Europe region (Poland, Slovakia and Hungary). The thesis should provide general overview of external economic relations of the Czech Republic in situation when some European countries are being threatened by deep debt crisis and in some cases the life-line from European union or International Monetary Fund must come.
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Methods of prediction of currency courses
Pour, Jiří ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Langer, Miroslav (referee)
The bachelor thesis deals with two methods of prediction of currency courses - the Power Price Parity theory and the Balance of Payments theory. At the begining there is a description of a currency course in general and basic methods of its prediction - fundamental and technical analysis. The main part of the thesis deals with the two methods of prediction mentioned above. Each theory is described, criticised and empirically compared with historical data from years 1999-2010 in separated chapters. The chapter about the balace of payments includes lots of charts illustrating the structures of balances of payments of the United States, the European Monetary Union and the Czech Republic.
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The Japanese yen in the composition of international foreign exchange reserves
Vařenka, Marek ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee)
This bachelor thesis mainly aims to characterizeofficial foreign exchange reserves, the reasons for holding reserves, its composition, optimal size and historical development.Impacts of balance of payments and foreign exchange rate regimes are also mentioned. Among other reasons for foreign reserve accumulation, foreign exchange interventions are very important and relatively frequent use of foreign exchange holdings in Japan, therefore there is included one whole chapter dedicated do them. Currencystability,well developed financial markets and other factors are necessary conditions for currency to play a role as a reserve currency. These conditions are listed in the chapter Reserve currency. Recent and also historical development of currency composition of the foreign currency reserves is specified in the last chapter.
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Currency pairs and their development
Kotrba, Lukáš ; Soukup, Jindřich (advisor) ; Makovský, Petr (referee)
The main objective of this work is to estimate and determinate methods to use when analyzing future development of exchange rate. The main goals have been achieved by a summary of past developements and listing of important elements that shaped the past and are shaping the present and also the future. Than followed the theoretical part, without that knowledge, we could not get through. I started from the definition of a currency pair, forex, macroeconomic effects, which are shapping the exchange rate more or less influence over the definitions of the market. This was followed by theoretical models of fundamental analysis, which aim to determine the exchange rate. I also added a technical analysis to fundamental analysis and in practical part. I fill real data in theoretical background and I try to determine the future exchange rate.
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Relations among balance of payments, exchange rate and foreign reserves
Daňhel, Tomáš ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Kunz, Tomáš (referee)
The bachelor thesis is focused on the relations among the balance of payments, exchange rate and foreign reserves in period from 1999 to 2009 in the Czech Republic. The first part presents the theory behind the balance of payments, exchange rates and foreign reserves. The analysis of each variable was performed by using both graphical interpretation and regression analysis. The time-series consisted of quarterly data. Lagged values were used to improve the describing power of econometric models. The models themselves were analyzed bilaterally by using OSL method. The results show that the exchange rates have higher influence on the balance of payments than vice versa.
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Internal exchange rate risk management techniques with application to import-oriented company
Malý, Jan ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
The work is focused on exchange rate risk, its description and typical situations in which firms have to face to the uncertainty caused by variability of exchange rates. It specifies selected internal (operational) techniques which are used to manage exchange rate risk as well. These methods are connected with financial management of companies and it is possible to apply these techniques to every size of company. The principle and the implementation of internal methods might be tighter to smaller companies. These companies do not know a lot about a wide scale of instruments of financial market, so hedging through external methods may not be suitable. Internal methods contrary to external are also suitable for hedging economic exposure (substantial part of the work is focused on economic exposure). In response to current events, exchange rate risk is also discussed in connection with continuing economic depression and pending fiscal situation of the countries which are part of euro area. In analytic part the work is focused on a Czech import-oriented firm which purchases machines from Taiwanese suppliers for euro and dollars and consequently sells these goods in the Czech market mostly in Czech koruna. In some cases the firm negotiates invoicing in euro. Currency mismatch of receipts and payments gives rise to exchange rate risk. In addition, firm's business contracts are specific to high nominal value and longer maturity. With the growth of these two parameters increases exchange rate risk.
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Methods and processes for managing exchange rate risks
Kliment, Martin ; Kuncl, Martin (advisor)
The development od international markets comes along with a price of risk changes in foreign exchange rates. The purpose of this bachelor thesis is to help the reader understand the methods for managing of foreign exchange risks. Foreign exchange risks are caused by development of exchange rates. It caues the danger of volatility in revenues as well as expenditures. The work is devided into several chapters in which I am trying to familiarize the reader with the world of foreign exchange risks. From the definitions and basic relations to primary hedging possibilities that are financial derivates. The last part I devoted to the assessing and practical findings emerging from the work itself.
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