| |
|
Global Economy Outlook - June 2016
Česká národní banka
The June issue of Global Economic Outlook presents the regular monthly overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. In this issue, we also assess the accuracy of the forecasts for 2015 published in Global Economic Outlook in 2015 and 2014. The institutions under comparison forecasted GDP growth relatively accurately (except for an unexpectedly deep GDP contraction in Brazil and Russia) and overestimated their inflation forecasts and consequently also their interest rate forecasts (again with the exception of Brazil and Russia).
Fulltext:  PDF; PDF
|
|
The evolution of the commodity trade of France between 2001 and 2011
Španihelová, Zdeňka ; Karpová, Eva (advisor) ; Procházková Ilinitchi, Cristina (referee)
Thesis deals with commodity trade of France between 2001 and 2011. Its aim is to analyze its evolution during the selected period including forecasts of possible progress. The work is divided into three parts. The first one describes the commodity trade of the country between 2001 and 2007, the second part continues until 2011. Trade in goods is analyzed by commodity and territorial structure, but also in relation to the current account and some of its items. The third part evaluates the effects of three economic crises on the French foreign commodity trade and possibilities of its evolution until 2021.
|
| |
|
Labour Market Modelling within a DSGE Approach
Tonner, Jaromír ; Tvrz, Stanislav ; Vašíček, Osvald
The goal of this paper is to find a suitable way of modelling the main labour market variables in the framework of the CNB’s core DSGE model. The model selection criteria are: the predictive ability for unemployment, the change in the overall predictive ability in comparison to the baseline model and the extent of the required model change. We find that the incorporation of a modified Galí, Smets and Wouters (2011) labour market specification allows us to predict unemployment with an acceptable forecast error. At the same time it leads to a moderate improvement in the overall predictive ability of the model and requires only minor adjustments to the model structure. Thus, it should be preferred to more complicated concepts that yield a similar improvement in predictive ability. We also came to the conclusion that the concept linking unemployment and the GDP gap is promising. However, its practical application would require (additional) improvement in the accuracy of the consumption prediction. As a practical experiment, we compare the inflation pressures arising from nominal wages and the exchange rate in the baseline model and in alternative specifications. The experiment is motivated by the use of the exchange rate as an additional monetary policy instrument by the CNB since November 2013 in an environment of near-zero interest rates and growing disinflationary pressures. We find that the baseline model tends to forecast higher nominal wage growth and lower exchange rate depreciation than the models with more elaborate labour markets. Therefore, the alternative models would probably have identified an even higher need for exchange rate depreciation than the baseline model did.
Fulltext: PDF
|
|
Global Economy Outlook - April 2015
Česká národní banka
The November issue of Global Economic Outlook presents its regular overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. Analysis "How consensus has evolved in Consensus Forecasts".
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
|
|
Assessing the Impact of Fiscal Measures on the Czech Economy
Ambriško, Róbert ; Babecký, Jan ; Ryšánek, Jakub ; Valenta, Vilém
We build a satellite DSGE model to investigate the transmission of fiscal policy to the real economy in the Czech Republic. Our model shares features of the Czech National Bank’s current g3 forecasting model (Andrle, Hl´edik, Kamen´ık, and Vlˇcek, 2009), but contains a more comprehensive fiscal sector. Crucial fiscal parameters, related mainly to the specified fiscal rule, are estimated using Bayesian techniques. We calculate a set of fiscal multipliers for individual revenue and expenditure items of the government budget. We find that the largest real GDP fiscal multipliers in the first year are associated with government investment (0.4) and social security contributions paid by employers (0.3), followed by government consumption (0.2).
Fulltext: PDF
|
|
Predikce spotřeby pomocí systému ELVÍRA
Pelikán, Emil ; Šimůnek, Milan ; Brabec, Tomáš
There is no need to emphasize strongly the economical aspect of gas consumption forecasting in current conditions of price formation for distributive companies. One of the ways how to improve forecasting quality is the use of computer systems both for automatic time series forecasting, and also for decision support systems with an interactive feedback connection that can help experts (dispatchers, economists) in their decision, planning and control processes.
|
|
Valuation of company Sokolovská uhelná, právní nástupce, a.s.
Dobrovický, Martin ; Kislingerová, Eva (advisor) ; Štamfestová, Petra (referee)
The purpose of this diploma thesis is to estimate objectivised value of company Sokolovská uhelná, právní nástupce, a.s. on valuation date 31 December 2011. Thesis starts with introduction and overview of basic information about the company. Key part, strategic analysis, deals with analysis of sectors in which company operates, defines relevant markets, indentifies company's position on the market, forecasts prices of commodities and at the end presents forecasts of sales. In part financial analysis, complex financial health is verified. In Part generators of value and financial plan prediction of financial statements is forecasted. On these bases, discounted free cash flow valuation method is used to determine the value of company.
|
|
The Evaluation of the Heavy Convective Precipitation Forecast
Zacharov, Petr ; Řezáčová, Daniela (advisor) ; Brechler, Josef (referee) ; Pešice, Petr (referee)
The thesis deal with the evaluation of the quantitative convective precipitation forecast and its uncertainty. Five convective events that produced heavy local rainfall in the Czech Republic were studied. The nonhydrostatic local model LM COSMO was run with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km and an ensemble of 13 forecasts was created by modifying the initial and boundary conditions. Forecasts were verified by gauge-adjusted radar-based rainfalls. Ensemble skill and ensemble spread were determined using the Fractions Skill Score (FSS). The spread represents the differences between the control forecast and the forecasts provided by each ensemble member, while the skill evaluates the difference between the precipitation forecast and radar-based rainfalls. The numerical experiments used the FSS-skill and spread values related to four events to estimate the skill-spread relationship. The relationship was applied to a fifth event to estimate the QPF ensemble skill given the ensemble FSS-spread. A couple of test of FSS computing were performed. The analysis of these events proved, that the application of the new fuzzy verification scores in high resolution QPF is highly advisable. The new scores are more suitable then the traditional verification scores based on the contingency table. In order to asses the...
|
guest ::
