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A lawmaker for life. Czech members of the Austrian House of Peers (1879-1918) between politics and prestige
Pavlíček, Tomáš ; Galandauer, Jan (referee) ; Velek, Luboš (advisor)
The author of this paper researches a subject new to Czech historiography - that of Czech life peers in the Austrian parliament between 1879 - 1918. He attempts to do it not only on the level of archive research, but also parliamentarism (the idea, foundation and operation of the House of Peers), political strategies (nominating candidates for peers), social stratification (social classes represented), social promotion (acquiring symbolic capital), political culture (perception of politics and the position of the peers by themselves and the society), and methodology. The author asks the question of what approach to choose for the research of the peers' lifestyle and their parliamentary identities. The latter differed from the political thinking and political behaviour of the members of the lower house in the following respects: less active up to completely uninvolved parliamentary career, apolitical activity in one's own occupation, office and one's own nation, appreciation of the individual's career and his merits to the society by being awarded an order, becoming a nobleman, and gaining political power in the form of the peer's prestige. Attention is drawn to the introduction of the general, equal and direct voting rights in Cisleithania in 1906, which remarkably increased the House of Peers' political...
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Intraday Dynamics of Euro Area Sovereign Credit Risk Contagion
Komárek, Luboš ; Ters, Kristyna ; Urban, Jörg
We examine the role of the CDS and bond markets during and before the recent euro area sovereign debt crisis as transmission channels for credit risk contagion between sovereign entities. We analyse an intraday dataset for GIIPS countries as well as Germany, France and central European countries. Our findings suggest that, prior to the crisis, the CDS and bond markets were similarly important in the transmission of financial shock contagion, but that the importance of the bond market waned during the crisis. We find flight-to-safety effects during the crisis in the German bond market that are not present in the pre-crisis sample. Our estimated sovereign risk contagion was greater during the crisis, with an average timeline of one to two hours in GIIPS countries. By using an exogenous macroeconomic news shock, we can show that, during the crisis period, increased credit risk was not related to economic fundamentals. Further, we find that central European countries were not affected by sovereign credit risk contagion, independent of their debt level and currency.
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Insurance contracts clustering to risk homogenous groups
Martínek, Jan ; Zimmermann, Pavel (advisor) ; Justová, Iva (referee)
In the present work we study classes of homogenous policy contracts by CEIOPS definition and its specified risk characteristics. First part of the thesis study the risk measures and the methods used to measure these risks. As the main risk categories we study underwriting and reserve risk. In the second part of the thesis we analyse these classes by its risk characteristics and cluster them in homogenous groups. At the end we outline the characteristic features of each group for better understanding the result of presented cluster analysis.
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Portfolio diversification
ŠÍP, Martin
The goal of this bachelor thesis is to show how the choice of stocks impacts the portfolio diversification in relation to risk and return. The risk was calculated as standard deviation and historical return rate was considered. The theoretical part explains basic terms related with portfolio diversification, Markowitz model, capital stock and most important factors that lead to the optimal portfolio creation such as return, risk and covariance. The practical part explains in detail, how to create an optimal portfolio. Ten companies from different sectors were randomly chosen for this bachelor thesis. These companies' shares are traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The covariance of these shares is lower than one. The next step was to calculate historical return rate and historical risk of portfolios. The highest value of historical return rate was 2.31 % and the lowest value of historical risk achieved 22.77 %. Subsequently, the efficient frontier was determined. The efficient frontier is the set of optimal portfolios that offers the highest expected return for a defined level of risk or the lowest risk for a given level of expected return. The lowest value of portfolio risk was 2.97 % with a return of 1.38 % and the highest value of portfolio risk was 4.03 % with a return of 2.13 %. The investor chooses the portfolio which maximizes his expected benefit.
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Predictive Modeling in Credit Risk Management
Švastalová, Iva ; Dlouhá, Zuzana (advisor) ; Bouda, Milan (referee)
The diploma thesis is focused on predictive modeling in credit risk management. Banks and financial institutions are mainly interested in it to estimate the probability of client's default in order to make a decision about which client will be accepted and which client will be rejected. The theoretical part includes an introduction of credit scoring and a description of discrete choice models. The linear probability model, the probit model and the logit model are described in detail. The logit model is afterwards used for the prediction of client's default. The practical part is focused on a statistical description of the dataset and a description of how to work with it before we start with the development of the credit scoring model. After that follows the estimation of the model on testing sample, its testing and the estimation of the model on full sample with a description of individual steps of calculation and outputs of the program SPSS.
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Sufficient Number of Providers of Primary Prevention of Risky Behaviour in the Town of Příbram
ŠVŮGEROVÁ, Hana
My bachelor thesis is called ?Sufficient Number of Providers of Primary Prevention of Risky Behaviour in the Town of Příbram?. The aim of the primary prevention is to prevent occurrence of risky behaviour or to postpone the first experience with it as latest as possible. The aim is to prevent from increasing occurrence of risky behaviour. Primary prevention is provided by school methodologists of prevention who choose prevention activities which are used to improve social skills at schools for their pupils and learners. Risky behaviour is such behaviour leading to increase in social, health and other risks. Primary prevention should focus on the following areas, in particular: addictive drug use, bullying and cyber-bullying, netolism, gambling, HIV/AIDS and eating disorders. Other phenomena that should be prevented are political and religious extremism, manifestations of racism and xenophobia. Schools use services rendered by providers offering prevention of various forms to ensure primary prevention. In order primary prevention is efficient it should be long-term and continuous. It should be started with the prevention 2 ? 3 years before the first contact with a particular phenomenon. Single activities such as lectures or discussions which do not use the potential of the target group within the programme are less efficient. The goal of my bachelor thesis is to find out whether there are a sufficient number of providers of primary prevention of selected risky behaviour and to do evaluation of primary prevention at the schools in Příbram. The research in question was conducted on a quantitative basis and completed with the method of questioning using a semi-structured interview in order to verify the data on a qualitative basis. The main part of the research was done using content analysis of data of the minimum preventive programmes at the selected primary and secondary schools. I consider the fact that the schools in Příbram do not implement prevention of all types of risky behaviour in accordance with the guideline of the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sport of the Czech Republic as the fundamental result. It is most common to ensure prevention in the area of addictive drug use and diseases of HIV/AIDS. On the contrary, the minimum prevention is implemented in case of cyber-bullying, netolism, gambling and eating disorders. Prevention is dealt at the primary schools late with. The interviews with the school methodologists of prevention suggest that the most common reason for not doing prevention in these areas at schools is the assumption the matter is not necessary or image of uselessness and late impact of preventive activities. Only two methodologists of prevention notified of lack of providers of primary prevention, which relates to the issue of bullying and cyber-bullying, alcohol and racism and xenophobia in particular, in Příbram. On the basis of this I believe that the fact the schools do not do primary prevention of all types of risky behaviour is not caused due to lack of providers. In my opinion, an eventual solution to the current situation at schools could be, in particular, if primary prevention is embodied in the laws of the Czech Republic more firmly. The results of my thesis can be used as a basis for improving the quality of primary preventive activities at the individual schools in Příbram, for the needs of further research, or as material for lay public interested in prevention.
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Economical evaluation of investments and risk analysis in real enterprise
Götz, Miroslav ; Fotr, Jiří (advisor) ; Špaček, Miroslav (referee)
The aim of the work is to introduce various ways of economical evaluation of investments and present their practical application for industry branch of electrical devices. The work is divided into two parts: theoretical and practical one. The introductory part presents framework of economical evaluation and describes basics of economical evaluation and terms such as NPV, discount rate, investment decision) The work focuses on the most favorite approach -- discounted cash flow method - of economical evaluation of investments in detail. However, practical experiences show that conventional approach does not take probability distributions of input variables into account. When the higher risk is implied to discount rate, promising project could be rejected. That is why DCF concept is complemented by Monte Carlo risk modeling application.
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Essays on International Currency Markets
Poghosyan, Tigran ; Kočenda, Evžen (advisor) ; Orlowski, Lucjan (referee) ; Kutan, Ali M. (referee)
1 ABSTRACT Essays on International Currency Markets By Tigran Poghosyan This dissertation consists of three essays on foreign exchange risks in international financial markets and financial integration in the new EU member countries. The first essay focuses on the determinants of foreign exchange risks in post-transition economies. Using a unique dataset on foreign and domestic currency denominated deposit rates in Armenia, we estimate excess returns on foreign exchange operations, which are free from the impact of country risk and transaction costs. The calculated excess returns are largely positive (existence of the premium for risk) and exhibit substantial variation over time. The two-currency interdependent factor affine term structure model captures the time- variability of the risk premium and predicts that the Central Bank interventions in the foreign exchange market and ratio of volumes of foreign and domestic currency denominated deposits (proxy for external shocks) are important explanatory variables driving the premium. The GARCH-in-Mean approach supports the previous conclusion and suggests that the Central Bank interventions (policy factor) are significant for the premium on the short horizon, while deposit ratios (fundamental factor) are more influential on the long horizon. It was also found...
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Assessment forms of collateral payments and exchange rate risks for companies in selected sectors
Hrazdíra, Adam ; Pavlík, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Baluchová, Daniela (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with the problem of securing payments and exchange risks in international trade. Financial derivatives, documentary letters of credit and documentary collection were selected as the main financial instruments for hedging. The aim of this work is to choose the most appropriate combination of these instruments for companies in a particular sector and economic areas. The second part of this thesis focuses on the Czech engineering company that uses all these financial instruments listed above for hedging. The company's strategy for exchange and payment security will be presented, based on the data of analysis. Following this strategy recommendation arises for other companies in this sector.
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Modeling and simulation of public investment project risk
Pavelková, Martina ; Hromádka, Vít (referee) ; Lacko,, Branislav (referee) ; GŐTZOVÁ,, Dagmar (referee) ; Korytárová, Jana (advisor)
The results of the investment projects are dependent on the quality of project preparation in the pre-investment stage and well-executed implementation. High-quality preparation of the projects, their evaluation and selection of require key risk factors and uncertainties, the impact of these factors on the results of the project and consider measures on their elimination or reduction. The purpose of the risk management of the project is therefore in advance to know the sources of possible threats to the project and to prepare measures that would lead to a reduction in the potential impacts for the project to an acceptable value. The basic aim of project risks management is then increase the likelihood of their success and to minimize the risk of such failure, including their rejection of the venture project too, which could threaten the financial stability of the investor and lead to its decline. The thesis is focused on the examination of the different approaches to identification of risks and uncertainties and their subsequent evaluation on investment project of public corporations, including the impact of the preparation of the project on its own implementation and subsequent operation. At the same time they recommended possible measures to reduce the risk of this project in terms of their costs and the size of the risk reduction. Part of the work is also an analysis of the risks and benefits of the projects planned, realized and terminated by The South Moravian Region and the draft Project Risk Register and the Project Opportunities Register, where appropriate, the risk management process for The Regional Authority of The South Moravian Region.
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