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The Czech Housing Market Through the Lens of a DSGE Model Containing Collateral-Constrained Households
Tonner, Jaromír ; Brůha, Jan
We incorporate a housing market with liquidity-constrained households into the Czech National Bank’s core forecasting model (g3) to analyze the relationship between housing market and aggregate fluctuations in a small open economy framework. We discuss the historical shock decomposition of house prices and interpret the results in the light of recent empirical work. For a wide range of model calibrations, the interaction between the housing market and the aggregate economy is weak and so the monetary policy implications of house price fluctuations for the Czech Republic are not strong. We interpret this – in line with recent empirical evidence – as an indication that the wealth effects stemming from house ownership are not significant in the Czech Republic. Nevertheless, we show that the collateral mechanism significantly improves the forecasting properties of the extended model, especially for private consumption. This indicates the importance of the collateral effect, which can be caused by assets other than houses.
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Central bank monitoring - June 2014
Česká národní banka
Latest monetary policy developments at selected central banks and news. Spotlight: „The Baltic states and the euro during the economic crisis“. Selected speech: „The future of monetary policy“ by Charlie Bean (Deputy Governor of the BoE).
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
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Human behaviour and economic crises
Šťastný, Jan ; Sirůček, Pavel (advisor) ; Breňová, Lubomíra (referee)
This bachelor thesis treats with the two longest economic crisis in last eighty years and the way how they were influenced by human behavior. Is it possible some subconscious aspects of human behavior were one of the causes of start of Great depression or Mortgage crisis? Under the influence of human trust or stories spread among people some acts significantly affects business cycle. The power of media and their specialists who are giving advices to us about investing is inconsiderable. But is it right?
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After-war economic crisis in the Weimar republic and the Dawes plan
Sodomka, Jaroslav ; Stellner, František (advisor) ; Soběhart, Radek (referee)
The subject of this thesis is purposed to characterize both economic and political progress in Weimar republic since the end of World War I till the middle twenties. In this respect, it is a period when Germany, after several years of war struggle ending up as a defeated country, was raving in economic and internal political crisis and also had to face up a diplomatic isolation connected with tough peace conditions from Versailles. The main focus of this study is to analyze German economic depression contextualized with crucial historic events against background of then international diplomacy. Economic analysis is connected especially with explanation of huge hyperinflation, synchronous theoretic hypothesis that formed economic policy of German governments and their comparison with modern monetary economics. Being analyzed are not only causes of depression based in long-term debt funding of war, uncovered money emission and necessity of high reparation payments, but also the process and the way of its termination and overall consequences both political and socioeconomic. After abandonment of inflation episode follows solution of reparation payments adjustment which was necessary for future stabilization of Weimar Republic and final termination of German crisis. The way to stability was provided by London Conference and Dawes plan which are both analyzed in the last part of this thesis.
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