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Souvislosti vývoje akciových indexů a HDP států G8
Brychtová, Tereza
The aim of the thesis is to reveal the relationship between stock indices and GDP of selected countries. The theoretical part explains the concepts of financial mar-kets, the essence of a functioning of public limited companies and earlier studies dealing with this theme are also included. The practical part is focused on an ac-tual relationship between the variables, both in terms of its existence, its strength and direction. To reveal the relationship between variables and its strength, the correlation analysis is used. Then In case of direction of this relationship a multivariate time series analysis is used in a form of the VAR model using Granger causality.
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Ukazatele trhu práce ČR v období devizových intervencí ČNB
Nováková, Michaela
The diploma thesis focuses on the development of the Czech labour market in the period of the CNB monetary interventions that took place in 2013-2017. Within the VAR models, the causal relationship between the labour market indicators and the GDP growth is verified. The delayed effect of the change in GDP on the labour market indicators was found. The thesis also pays attention to the trend models of the selected time series. Within them the presence of the structural break indicating the start of using CNB foreign exchange interventions was detected. In conclusion the possible solutions of the long-term unemployment of disadvantaged groups in the labour market are presented.
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Impact of crude oil price on macroeconomic indicators in major oil producing countries
Tůmová, Eva
The diploma thesis investigates the effect of oil price fluctuations on selected macroeconomic indicators for a set of four oil-producing countries. It provides a general overview of the development in oil prices as well as the oil production and presents a more thorough analysis of the oil production, consumption and trade in the selected countries. It utilizes the methods of Vector Autoregression, Granger causality and Impulse response via the econometric software Gretl in the analysis of the effects and compares the current literature with quantitative results.
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Důsledky zrušení mléčných kvót pro ceny mléka v České republice a okolních státech
Stehlík, Jaroslav
This bachelor thesis deals with the results of the abolition of milk quotas in European union on the milk prices from the producers in Czech Republic, Germany, Slovakia, Poland and Austria. In thesis there are used VAR models to test Granger causality between prices in particular countries. There are also used descriptive statistics for understanding the prices before and after quotas abolition. There are calculated basic characteristics of all time series, which are used for period between January 2008 and December 2017.
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Faktory ovlivňující ceny mléčných výrobků v České republice
Slanařová, Barbora
This bachelor thesis deals with effects influencing prices of milk and dairy products. Using the VAR models are investigated relations between the average monthly purchase price for milk from producers and the average monthly customers prices for milk, yoghurt and butter. The influence of the average monthly customer price for milk in the Czech Republic and Slovakia is also rated. Using the ARIMA model are made forecasts of purchase price for milk for next two years.
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Contribution of space R&D expenditures to the economic growth of the EU
Perić, Silvija
The thesis explores quantitative relationship between space R&D expenditures and economic growth of the EU Member States. So far, there hasn’t been done quantitative research on the causal relationship of these two variables in Europe. The paper attempts to compose appropriate review of the previous research and to find the best method to evaluate the aforementioned relationship. It presents limitations in available literature in this field, as well as limitations in suitable methodology and available data. For our panel dataset we chose Granger causality. The results of the research show that there is no significant quantitative relationship - space expenditures per capita don’t Granger cause real GDP per capita, and vice versa. In the end, we provide recommendations for the EU policy, as well as for the national policies. Researchers should try to use unified time periods as well as corresponding type of data, measures, and methodology.
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Provázanost vývoje akciových trhů a výkonnosti ekonomik států V4
Kubíček, Michal
The aim of the thesis is to verify the interdependence of stock markets with the development of the national economies of the V4 countries and on basis of the established links, to assess possible forecasting of the future development of GDP and the development of V4 stock markets. Literary overview of the diploma thesis describes the economic development of the V4 countries with a focus on the eco-nomic indicator of GDP, the critism of the GDP indicator and its possible alternati-ves measuring the efficiency of the economy. In addition, there are described indi-vial stock exchanges of V4 countries, theory of efficient markets together with possible anomalies in the financial markets. The last part of the literky review contains previously Publisher studies dealing with the issue. The work itself is dividend into main parts, namely the correlation analysis and the compilation of VAR models according to which the direction of the relationship will be tested within Granger causality.
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Ekonomické predstihové indikátory budúceho vývoja ekonomiky v ČR
Rudinská, Helena
The aim of this thesis is to verify the predictive ability of selected economic and financial leading indicators of future economic development in the Czech Republic. Economic development is expressed through GDP. The literary part deal with GDP and an alternative indicator of economic development. The literary section also presents a cross-section of empirical studies by various authors dedicated to leading indicators. The empirical part is focused on the relationship between GDP and leading indicators in terms of its existence, strength and direction. Correlation analysis is used to reveal the relationship and strength. Multi-dimensional time series analysis in the form of VAR models is used to reveal the direction, followed by Granger causality.
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Factors affecting economic growth in Serbia
Papić, Danijela
This diploma thesis evaluates the impact of selected factors on economic growth in Serbia. The existence of the relationship between economic growth and chosen macroeconomic indicators is tested with the use of cointegration test, Vector Error Correction model (VECM) and Granger causality test during the period 2007-2017. When it comes to long-run dynamics, results show positive impact of inflation, while the exports have negative influence. In the short-run, positive effect is observed by inflation and exports and negative by FDI. No effect of government expenditures is revealed in both short-run and long-run.
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