|
| |
|
|
Dopady měnové (dez)integrace na ČR
Semerák, Vilém ; Švejnar, Jan
Česká republika se při vstupu do EU oficiálně zavázala přijmout v budoucnosti euro. Ač změny EMU a současné problémy eurozóny mohou zpochybňovat reálný význam tohoto závazku, současná situace je pro českou ekonomiku natolik závažná, že je nutno analyzovat, jaké důsledky mají budoucí scénáře vývoje eurozóny na ČR1 a jaký postoj má ČR nadále zaujímat k měnící se EMU či k jejímu užšímu nástupci.
|
|
|
Evropská krize: špatná a ještě horší řešení
Semerák, Vilém ; Švejnar, Jan
Přežití eurozóny je ohroženo kvůli nedodržování vlastních pravidel a kvůli chybám, které byly v jejím designu od samého začátku. Přesto má reformovaná eurozóna stále ještě šanci na přežití, mimo jiné i proto, že většina alternativ má při současné míře vzájemné závislosti slabá místa a především obtížně odhadnutelné dopady. Skutečná stabilizace eurozóny však vyžaduje plán, který bude obsahovat nejen jasné informace o vypořádání se s dluhy a o použitelných zdrojích likvidity, ale i dlouhodobou strategii řešící nedostatky současné EMU.
|
|
|
Evropská krize a limity čínské podpory
Semerák, Vilém
Zájem mnoha evropských politiků se v posledních měsících upíná k Číně, která by mohla být investorem, který má dost prostředků ke stabilizaci eurozóny. Jakkoliv se jejich argumenty zdají být logické, Čína zřejmě nebude ochotna hrát roli spasitele Evropy, který by byl ochotný nakupovat obligace problémových zemí ve velkém rozsahu či dokonce investovat do společných evropských obligací.
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
Impact of education on long-term economic growth and pension system deficits
Münich, Daniel ; Ondko, Peter ; Straka, Jan
Long-term economic growth has a significant impact on the quality of life in a country. The education of its citizens is an important factor influencing the growth. Nevertheless, the relationship between economic growth and education is very long-term and not apparent at the first glance. However, this long-term relation can be illuminated with the help of quantitative projections. For this purpose, we use empirical estimates presented in the recent OECD report by Erik Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann. If the Czech Republic puts in place educational reform that leads to the increase of average cognitive skill level of 15 year old pupils (as measured by PISA survey) by a mere 25 points - hence only a fourth of the standard deviation, GDP in the current value is estimated to cumulatively increase by 12 trillion CZK over the next 80 years, thus 357 percent of the current annual GDP of the country. Unfortunately, the decrease in average cognitive skills levels that took place in the Czech Republic in the last decade leads to a similar GDP loss. If we were able to improve the average cognitive skills levels to Finnish standards, the additional production would even reach 707% of today’s GDP. If the average cognitive skills levels of the children of parents without high school degrees could be brought up to the level of those whose parents have high school degrees, it would increase production by 152% of the current GDP. The potential benefits recalculated in terms of annual budget exceed the current state budget deficit or budget for education. Finally, the higher GDP growth would significantly reduce the cumulated pension deficit.
|
|
|
Regional distribution of German-Czech multinationals on the domestic market
Moritz, M. ; Münich, Daniel ; Schäffler, J. ; Srholec, Martin
The article deals with the domestic location of German multinational firms which have affiliates in the Czech Republic. Due to the common border the Czech Republic represents an attractive target country for both vertical and horizontal direct investments. On the one hand, the still existing wage gap offers the opportunity to offshore activities abroad by reason of cost advantages. On the other hand, the increasing purchasing power of Czech customers provides favorable chances to acquire a new market. On the basis of a register of firms made available by the German-Czech Chamber of Industry and Commerce we present findings on the growing economic integration between the two countries. Almost 80% of the headquarters of German investors are located in the four federal states Bavaria, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Hesse and North Rhine-Westphalia. The eastern German New Laender are far less engaged in investments in the neigh-boring country. We use count data models in order to account for the distribution of the dependent variable, i.e. the number of investors in the German domestic regions. Controlling for several economic factors it can be concluded that the headquarters of German multinationals investing in the Czech Republic are preferably located in areas with high regional GDP. The distance to the common border plays an important role for the decision to enter the Czech market. In addition, regions that are situated directly at the German-Czech border are involved at an above-average rate in foreign direct investment. Thereby, location patterns differ between manufacturing firms and both trading and service companies.
|
|
| |
guest ::
