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Measuring Welfare Effects of the US-China Trade War Using General Equilibrium Models
Kim, Ha Eun ; Semerák, Vilém (advisor) ; Vacek, Pavel (referee)
This study analyzes the trade war between the United States (US) and China using the GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model. Five scenarios focused on economic decoupling are ana- lyzed: 1. Mutual tariff levels increased to 25%, 2. Mutual tariff levels increased to 45%, 3. Bilateral export levels decreased by 25%, 4. Bilateral export levels decreased by 45%, and 5. Trade efficiency decreased by 10%. The analysis shows both the US and China's consumer welfare and GDP decreased across all scenarios, with a larger decrease in China. In addition, when exports from China and the United States decrease, there is an increase in exports from the ASEAN region. JEL Classification C68, F13, F11, Keywords Trade war, CGE, General Equilibrium Title Measuring the Welfare Effects of the US-China Trade War Using a Computable General Equi- librium Model Author's e-mail hehaeunk@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail vilem.semerak@fsv.cuni.cz
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The economic development and international trade of North Korea using the factor analysis method
Kim, Ha Eun ; Chytilová, Julie (advisor) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (referee)
In this paper, after reviewing the characteristics of North Korean statistics, I examined how North Korea's trade affects its growth using empirical analyses. There have been many studies that have shown trade has affected economic growth, but there have been few empirical studies on North Korea's case. Cointegration test, regression analysis, and factor analysis were used. The empirical results suggest that even considering economic fluctuations, North Korea's trade has not shown a significant impact on growth. Keywords North Korea, Growth, Trade, Cointegration test, Factor analysis
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