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Selected Methodical Approaches to Regional Population Forecast: A case study in the South Bohemian Region
Říha, Vojtěch ; Hulíková Tesárková, Klára (advisor) ; Habartová, Pavlína (referee)
Selected Methodical Approaches to Regional Population Forecast: A case study in the South Bohemian Region Abstract The aim of this thesis is to introduce selected methodological approaches to population forecasts, focusing on the regional level and considering different lengths of time series. Specific procedures are applied to create a population forecast for the South Bohemian Region. In the theoretical part of this thesis, the stages of population forecasts processing are determined. The Cohort Component method with migration, which can be used to create population forecast, is characterized. Another part describes selected analytical models and functions for partial mortality, fertility and migration forecasts, including Indirect estimation of net migration. To extrapolate parameters, selected trending functions and the Box-Jenkins methodology are characterized in the part of the time series analysis. The analytical part of this thesis focuses on the creation of the South Bohemian Region forecast from short initial time series and long initial time series. From short initial time series, the partial forecast of mortality is analyzed by the Heligman-Pollard model, the partial forecast of fertility is analyzed by the Beta function and the partial forecast of migration is analyzed by 25%, 50% and 75%...
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Families and households in census data with a focus on the methodological aspects of the data
Habartová, Pavlína ; Rychtaříková, Jitka (advisor) ; Kraus, Jaroslav (referee) ; Čtrnáct, Pavel (referee)
Families and households in census data with a focus on the methodological aspects of the data Abstract Over the past few decades, significant changes in the family and household structure have been observed. Nevertheless, demographic behaviour does not have to be the only factor affecting these changes. Therefore, the thesis brings a comprehensive look at the family and household and focuses more on the methodological aspects of its structure and development evaluation. The first part of the thesis is rather a methodological work and introduces a detailed household methodology of one of the most important data source on families and households. Over the last half- century, the population and housing census has allowed a monitoring of household formation in the Czech Republic. Despite the efforts, new technologies, data collection and processing methods have required a change of the household concept in the last census. Since then, the time series have not been fully comparable. For the first time, household type derivation was based on automated process only, using a predefined algorithm. This algorithm, drafted by the author of the thesis, is also introduced in a separate chapter. The thesis also includes analytical chapters discussing the long-term development of the family and household structure...
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