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Election Polls in Czech Republic: Methodological Optimalizations
Prokop, Daniel ; Krejčí, Jindřich (advisor) ; Soukup, Petr (referee)
Bibliographic record PROKOP, Daniel. (2012). Election polls in the Czech Republic: Methodological Optimization. Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institut of Sociological Studies. Thesis academic consultant: Mgr. Jindřich Krejčí, Ph.D. Abstract The thesis focuses on the election-polls and prediction of election results in the Czech Republic. Using data of research company MEDIAN s.r.o. from face-to-face (CAPI) and telephone interviewing (CATI) in election year 2010 it examines possibilities of methodological optimizations which could lead to reducing systematic bias and discrepancies of pre-election polls the election results. In particular, it discusses these methodological solutions: mix-mode data collection (combination of CATI and CAPI), data weighting focused on specific factors correlated with voting behavior, including preferences of undecided voters, prediction of the respondents' participation in elections, election-polls results time-series smoothing. Based on these analyses the thesis tries to articulate general findings which could be fruitful in discussion about Czech election-polls and their methodology in general. In the thesis, basic and advanced statistic methods (CART, exponential smoothing, etc.) are being used to achieve given research goals. Keywords: election...
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