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Business cycle and monetary policy: a modern Austrian approach
Komrska, Martin ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Zamrazilová, Eva (referee) ; Kadrmas, Tomáš (referee)
This dissertation presents the results of research focused on the Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT). The main part of the thesis is an econometrical test of five predictions based on ABCT. I used data on the US economy for period 1967 - 2016, which is the longest time period covered in the Austrian empirical literature so far. Since one of the most important variables for ABCT is so called interest rate gap (the difference between market interest rate and natural interest rate), I use three alternative models of this variable. The results of my empirical tests predominantly confirm theoretical predictions of ABCT. It can be shown that the interest rate gap influenced the relative structure of economic activity and resource allocation in a way predicted by ABCT. I also investigate whether the interest rate gap does have a significant impact on stock market valuations (in terms of aggregate level or relative structure), although the results are mostly statistically insignificant. In addition I also described several possible new distortions which may emerge due to unconventional monetary policy. I argue that these distortions should be of primary interest for researchers engaged in the Austrian research program. I devoted special attention to the specifics of monetary policy regime in Japan, where the Bank of Japan regularly intervenes on the stock market. Another theoretical contribution can be found in the second chapter where I respond to the White's (1999) claim that Hayek implicitly repudiated his own version of ABCT in later part of his career, when proposing free competition in money production. I attempt to show that White's conclusion stems from an inadequate interpretation of Hayek's writings. Finally I provide an alternative interpretation of Hayek's work that reveals the compatibility of his early and late theoretical contributions.
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Maturity mismatching and its impact on the yield curve
Němec, Petr ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Janíčko, Martin (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with a new discord in the Austrian economic theory about the effects of maturity mismatching practiced by banks on the shape of the yield curve and defines the not yet established concept of the natural yield curve. The conflicting contributions of Austrian authors are compared for that purpose. Based on this comparison, a coherent theory of the effects of maturity mismatching is presented in a framework of the loanable funds market. A definition of the natural yield curve is then produced by a synthesis of the above-mentioned findings and the Austrian theory of the natural rate of interest. Theoretical research leads to the conclusion that one form of maturity mismatching inevitably results in an Austrian business cycle. The empirical section examines the question of yield curve´s behavior under the influence of maturity mismatching. An explanation concerning the selected hypotheses and their lack of confirmation is given.
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Kapitál a monetární teorie hospodářského cyklu: Eseje o rakouské teorii kapitálu, úroku a hospodářském cyklu
Potužák, Pavel ; Ševčík, Miroslav (advisor) ; Holman, Robert (referee) ; Kubíček, Jan (referee)
This dissertation explores four big topics in the Austrian economic theory. Chapter 1 elucidates the Austrian theory of capital. It introduces basic tools that are further used in the analysis of the business cycle. It also clarifies some misunderstandings in this theory. Chapter 2 investigates the evolution of the interest rate over the business cycle that is predicted by the Austrian theory of economic fluctuations. Chapter 3 examines the pure time preference theory. It shows with the help of a simple neoclassical graphical and mathematical apparatus that there is a fundamental flaw in this theory. It suggests that the notions of want and good must be explicitly separated, and it concludes that the time preference as well as the subjective exchange ratio between present goods and future goods may take on any value. Chapter 4 explores the business cycle dynamics in the economy with permanently rising natural output. Simple monetary policy rule that was designed to eliminate economic fluctuations is discussed in detail.
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The Austrian business cycle theory: empirical evidence
Komrska, Martin ; Potužák, Pavel (advisor) ; Zemplinerová, Alena (referee)
The aim of this diploma thesis is to empirically investigate the explanatory power of Austrian business cycle theory. My dataset consists of US quarterly time series within the period between 1971 and 2009. As regards the NBER classification, this dataset covers six complete business cycles, including the recent global financial crisis. Following Wainhouse (1984), Keeler (2001) and Bjerkenes et al. (2010) I use Granger causality as one of the primary tools of the analysis. Moreover I also add Impulse response functions to discover the direction of observed relationships. As regards my primary group of hypotheses I found significant empirical evidence for the connection between changes in interest rate and structure of production. The secondary group of hypotheses is less successful; however I found the very first empirical illustration of Garrison's version of ABCT.
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