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Komparace využívání nástrojů Evropské centrální banky během ekonomických krizí
Harviščák, Erik
The diploma thesis compares the use of monetary policy tools by the European Central Bank during economic crises. Specifically, it compares the response to the economic crisis caused by the 2008 financial market crash and the economic crisis associated with the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. Since the establishment of the European Central Bank in 1998, these are the two most significant shocks in terms of economic development. The thesis analyzes the development of monetary policy tools used during the crisis based on available literature. Based on these tools, indicators for eurozone countries that reflect the use of monetary policy tools are analyzed and compared. These indicators include key interest rates, interbank interest rates, and interest rates for households and businesses, as well as an indicator of active loans in the eurozone and quantitative easing. Along with these indicators, macroeconomic indicators are analyzed in the thesis, including the development of the price level and prices on stock markets. Above all, indicators of interest rates and quantitative easing confirm the different response of the European Central Bank to the compared crises. During the first crisis, the focus was mainly on increasing interest rates, due the increasing price level. In contrast, during the pandemic, record-high funds were provided through quantitative easing programs to stimulate economic growth.
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PPI and CPI: What is the relationship?
Červený, David ; Polák, Petr (advisor) ; Havránek, Tomáš (referee)
This bachelor thesis examines the relationship between the PPI and the CPI in the Czech Republic and the euro area. The primary method used in this thesis is the Granger causality test. Granger causality between the price indices is tested for in a bivariate model and also conditional on other variables describing the development of real GDP, a given monetary aggregate and wages. The most apparent conclusion that can be drawn from the empirical results indicates that the PPI Granger-causes the CPI in the Czech Republic and that there is no Granger causality going from the CPI to the PPI in the euro area. These results are consistent with conventional economic theory, which suggests a pass-through effect in the production chain going from producer prices to consumer prices.
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Predikcia inflácie vybranými metódami strojového učenia v krajinách V4
Číriová, Nora
The thesis analyzes the accuracy of the multi-step inflation forecast using se-lected methods of machine learning through inflationary factors in the Visegrad group countries. The methods that were applied in the work analysis are the re-gression of tree methods and the algorithm method to the k-nearest neighbors. Based on the regression tree method, we are able to identify factors that are most prominent in price level development. The output of the analysis consists of 8 models, the suitability and accuracy of which are discussed. The results of the em-pirical analysis are compared with the assumptions that were presented before the analysis has begun. This suggests that methods are not suitable for multi-step inflation prediction.
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Analýza rozdílu harmonizovaného a národního indexu spotřebitelských cen v ČR
Vrabec, Václav ; Vltavská, Kristýna (advisor) ; Musil, Petr (referee)
Price indices belong to the most important topics in the economic statistics. The consumer price index and the harmonised index of consumer prices are the parts of the complex of price indices. The consumer price index belongs to the most important indicators of the price development in the Czech Republic. Relative changes of the final consumer prices of goods and services paid by inhabitants can be estimated in a representative way with the help of this index. The consumer price index for households (in total) is used for measuring inflation in the Czech Republic. The harmonised index of consumer prices is developed as the result of the need of comparable measurement of the inflation trends Member States of the European Union. The aim of this work is to find and analyse the differences between the national consumer price index and the harmonised index of consumer prices. These differences will be searched not only in the methodologies but in the final values as well. There is also shown development of the differences throughout the time. It will outline the development of the both indices in the future including their differences. This work should provide the clear and integral source of information about indices in general; the consumer price index, the harmonised index of consumer prices and their differences.
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Effects of entry into the Eurozone on the inflation and the perceived inflation
Karhanová, Michala ; Maleček, Petr (advisor) ; Mičúch, Marek (referee)
The main objective of this thesis is to find out on the example of the concrete EU countries how the admission into the Eurozone influenced both the real inflation measured by means of the HICP and the perceived and expected inflation. The first part of this work will explain the notions such as the meaning of the prceived and expected inflation and the way how to measure them. Then the reasons that might lead to the origin of the difference between the real and perceived inflation will be analysed. On the example of the selected EU countries the individual instruments that were used for decreasing the perceived inflation and preventing from an unauthorised price increase during conversion to the new currency will be examined.
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