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Is European monetary system cause of indebtedness?
Nikodym, Lukáš ; Hudík, Marek (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
The aim of this essay is to verify Hülsmann's thesis and to show that European monetary system is a possible cause of indebtedness. Hülsmann says that German membership in regime of fixed exchange rates has disabled the possibility of inflation in other member countries, so the debt started to grow. Cointegration analysis in time-series is used for testing his thesis. Hülsmann's thesis is verified and further extended with the influence of fiscal coordination. Monetary integration caused decrease in government revenue through inflation. Government spending has increased through fiscal coordination vice versa.
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Greek debt crisis: Olympic games as an accelerator?
Tůma, Jan ; Mičúch, Marek (advisor) ; Kovanda, Lukáš (referee)
The paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic aggregates in Greece on ability to sustain debt repayment for the years from 1981 to 2009. Theoretical framework is mapping a development of macroeconomic indicators in Greece during last 30 years emphasizing the indirect consequences of fast-growing public debt. The results in empirical part show a positive and significant impact in government's budget deficit and orientation of governing party on the debt repayment. The amount of investments put into organizing Olympic Games in Athens 2004 have not had consequently shown negative effect on public debt accumulation. Some flaws and limitations of analysis are discussed.
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The actual debt crisis and Czech republic
Šornová, Martina ; Bič, Josef (advisor) ; Machytka, Daniel (referee)
In globalized world where the individual national economies are strongly connected and where development of a State or an international integration influences the development of another entity, the debt crisis has become one of the most discussed topics in the European Union as well as all over the world.
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The influence of global economic crisis on monetary integration in Europe
Kosek, Martin ; Čajka, Radek (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to analyse the impact of economic crisis in 2008 on states that are already members of eurozone or states aiming to join it. This work is divided into 4 chapters. The first two chapters deal with the economic impact on selected members of European Union that were affected most by the recession. The second part mainly deals with the processes that were set off by the economic crisis in EU and that showed certain flaws, which have shaken the foundations of the ambitious unification.
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The influence of the current economic crisis on the process of monetary integration in Europe
Vojtovičová, Anna ; Čajka, Radek (advisor) ; Gajdušková, Kateřina (referee)
Goal of this thesis named "The influence of the current economic crisis on the process of monetary integration in Europe" is to determine to what extent present financial and economic problems, which are faced by European countries as a consequence of global financial crisis, influenced the direction of European monetary integration. In order to do so it is necessary to describe the process of this integration and steps and decisions which led to the creation of monetary union and common currency. Furthermore, global financial crisis will be analyzed, its causes, consequences and impact on Europe. This crisis and the economic problems it caused contributed to debt crisis in Europe, which led to situation, when some European countries found themselves in need of financial assistance from EU. The measures taken by EU will be mentioned in the end of this thesis which should result in stabilization of present situation and prevent these problems from happening again. I will also outline possible future development of monetary union.
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Advantages and disadvantages of memebership in Eurozone in present financial and economic crisis
Závadská, Jana ; Bič, Josef (advisor) ; Machytka, Daniel (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals particularly with disadvantages of membership in eurozone connected with present debt crisis. In the thesis are also shortly described advantages of membership. First charter describes creation of European Monetary Union, conditions that need to be fulfill in order to join the Union and also conditions that should be followed by members. Second charter is talking about the birth of Word crisis and it's outgrowth into the debt crisis in eurozone. It is also talking not only about the impacts on the member states of eurozone but also on all the member states of European Union. It contains also comparison of impacts on eurozone and impacts on USA, as the birthplace of world crisis. In this part are described reasons of creation of uncontrolled debt in southern states of eurozone. In third chapter are described safeguard measures adopted by eurozone in order to solve the crisis. This chapter is describing the help provided to the indebted countries and also the creation of safeguard mechanism. In the end of this chapter is outlined the vision of the future of eurozone.
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The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Old Vs. New Europe
Plocek, Tomáš ; Stankov, Petar Valeriev (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
This work analyses fiscal sustainability and position of old and new members of EU and offers some fiscal policy implications to deal with debt reduction in the aftermath of the current fiscal crisis in the EU. Fiscal policy of Old European countries is different from fiscal policy of the new members. Due to different historical development New European members have lower debt and lower GDP per capita. Many policymakers in New Europe tried to increase GDP of their countries by generating government deficits. On the other hand Old European countries are already having large debts and current fiscal crisis is one result of this fact. The recent fiscal crisis in Europe raised the question what is sustainable fiscal policy and how to achieve it. Sustainability of the policy can be divided into three groups: short term, medium term, and long term. In short term, fiscal policy is sustainable, when government is able to issue and sell government bonds. Otherwise it defaults. In medium term, fiscal policy is sustainable when debt to GDP ratio is constant or decreasing. Situation in long term is very similar to situation in medium term. The difference is in time. Long term fiscal policy is sustainable if debt to GDP ratio converges to some finite number. All the definitions are problematic and problem arises basically from fact that variables that are part of the definitions are volatile. Fiscal policy that might seem to be sustainable in times of economic expansion may become unsustainable even in short time. Exactly this thing happened in Ireland. Ireland shows another problem of sustainability definitions. The problem is that private debt can increase public debt and even threaten its sustainability. Many countries were saving their financial sector which was very expensive and this practice is increased the debt in those countries very fast. Probably the most important indicator of fiscal sustainability is interest rate on government bonds. Reason is that price of the bonds is based on different risks that are in the assets. Countries with sustainable fiscal policy are paying lower interests than countries with unsustainable. This is reason why we tried to explain variation of interest rate on 10 years government bonds by empirical models. Two models were based on fixed effects panel data estimations and one model was based on ordinary least squares model. The panel data model showed that there was and still is huge difference between Old European and New European countries. Old Europe was viewed by markets as one segment which is relatively risk free. This lead to situation, that most important factor driving interest rates in Old Europe is the risk free rate on the German bonds. On the other hand, interest rates in New European countries are influenced by many more indicators. Most important indicator in New Europe is GDP growth and sustainability of foreign exchange reserves. Based on results of the model we came to conclusion that there is high chance that markets will start to differ among Old European countries and this could lead to increase of interest rates in some Old EU members, a conclusion which is to some degree being verified by the increased spreads between German government bonds on one hand, and Italian and Spanish bonds on the other hand in the first few weeks of August 2011. Our conclusions also suggest that the position of New Europe may stand similar in current situation. If it is true policymakers may try to adapt policy of New European countries to increase its sustainability and improve the key variables. The conclusions from this work bring several policy recommendations for improving the fiscal sustainability in Europe. First and probably the most important recommendation to fiscal policy is that policymakers should not underestimate the indicators of fiscal sustainability, which was a common practice in recent history. Countries with high GDP growth were generating large deficits and debt to GDP ratio was constant. Problem is that in recession indicators that were influencing interest rate changed and fiscal policy become unsustainable in many cases. Conclusion for fiscal policy is that policymakers should run responsible fiscal policy in good times to avoid troubles in bad times. Governments should also understand full price of deficits, because increased deficits also increase interest rate that governments have to pay on existing debt.
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Financial crises, identification, causes and precautions
Valeš, Tomáš ; Půlpánová, Stanislava (advisor) ; Hradil, Dušan (referee)
The main goal of this paper is to provide complete view about financial crises. Paper is di-vided into the six chapters whereas we explore the definition of crises, than history, causes, indicators and anti-crisis precautions. In last chapter we apply all theoretical observations to case study of Nordic banking crises from the beginning of the 90s in last century. We can't expect the crises to vanish completely because they are natural part of both finan-cial system and whole economy but for which they are extremely dangerous too and that's why the crisis, when it breaks out, must be at every moment managed and under control.
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Příčiny finančních krizí v Mexiku a jihovýchodní Asii
Buldrová, Monika ; Štěpánek, Pavel (advisor) ; Rybáček, Václav (referee)
Práce se zabývá analýzou příčin finančních krizí v Mexiku a jihovýchodní Asii. Finanční krize v Mexiku (1994) byla první svého druhu v novodobé historii a zasáhla mnoho dalších ekonomik především v Latinské Americe. Krize, která propukla v roce 1997 v Asii, byla naprosto neočekávaná. Cílem práce je tedy identifikovat příčiny vzniku krize, porovnat kritické faktory u obou krizí a pokusit se odpovědět na otázku, proč byly varovné příznaky v případě Asie většinou přehlíženy.
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