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Comparison of Currency Board and Crawling Peg exchange rate arrangements in transition economies
Štolc, Michal ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
This bachelor thesis discusses the issue of adopting appropriate exchange rate arrangement in transition economies of Eastern Europe during the 90's of 20th century. It more closely focuses on two of those arrangements, Currency Board and Crawling Peg. In the theoretical part, it describes the division of exchange rate regimes, problems of transition economies and specific features of Currency Board and Crawling Peg regimes. In the following analytical part, it compares the effects of adoption of one of these exchange rate regimes in Estonia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Poland and Hungary.
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Methods of prediction of the exchange rate and exchange rate analysis of selected countries
Shchehlyuk, Oleksandr ; Brůna, Karel (advisor)
In this thesis the author deals with the exchange rate prediction methods, namely the theory of purchasing power parity, interest parity theory and the theory of balance of payments. At the beginning of the work, all these methods briefly described in the next section are applied to the currency pair USD / JPY. The analysis was performed on 20 years period between 1990 and 2010. For the analysis of the theory of rates, purchasing power and interest were used monthly data for the analysis of balance of payments authors used annual data, given the length of the period under review more detailed breakdown would be unclear. At the end of the analysis, I analyzed the different factors and explanations that could affect the currency pair USD / JPY over the period. In this section I emphasized the official institutions intervention in the foreign exchange market. In conclusion, I summarize the identified knowledge and express their own opinions on the matter.
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The movement of the tenge exchange rate depending on macroeconomic variables.
Tussupbekov, Anuar ; Kuncl, Martin (advisor)
In this bachelor work I tried to describe the movement of the tenge exchange rate depending on the macroeconomic variables : GDP, inflation, import,export, current account balance of payments. The first part contains the general theory of exchange rate and it`s determinants. The second part describes the movement of the tenge exchange rate during the period from creation to 2009. The third part contains an explanation of the theory of Resouce Curse and its relation with the movement of the tenge exchange rate.
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Does appreciation of the Czech crown lead to growth of the unemployment rate in the Czech Republic?
Svobodová, Lucie ; Mičúch, Marek (advisor) ; Lahvička, Jiří (referee)
The paper investigates the impact of changes in the exchange rate of the Czech crown against the Euro on the rate of unemployment in the Czech Republic. The survey is using time series from 2000 to 2010 and there are used two models. A brief theoretical framework discusses several papers on this topic. The results of empirical testing confirm the hypothesis of the work. Appreciation of the Czech crown against the Euro by 1 crown causes an increase in the unemployment rate by 0.028% and by 0.023% with inclusion of average real wage into the model. Moreover German GDP, Czech import, labour productivity and average real wage have statistically significant effect (at least on the 10% significance level) on the growth of unemployment.
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Hedging currency risks in the context of Czech export
Renč, Jan ; Žamberský, Pavel (advisor) ; Šaroch, Stanislav (referee)
The main focus of this work is on hedging of currency risks with special emphasis on the case of Czech export. In the first chapter, I create a motivation for further studying of the problem. I describe the state of export industries and the economy as a whole and how these aspects are connected to the exchange rates. In the second chapter, I explain how firms create their assumptions about future exchange rates. I also run a Monte Carlo analysis on historical data and come with predictions of my own. In the third chapter, I am discussing the relevance of using VaR models for estimating the maximum possible loss of funds due to unwanted moves in the exchange rate. Furthermore, I describe various instruments usable for hedging of currency exposure including forwards, options, swaps and other derivatives. In the final chapter of this work, I am asking financial and sales directors of 51 Czech firms about how currency risks influence their businesses and how they protect themselves against these threats.
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Exchange rate prediction using fundamental analysis
Parmová, Jana ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
Bachelor project is focused on forecasting of exchange rate development. There are used basic economic fundamentals for this prediction: price level, inflation, interest rate and balance of payments. Models of exchange rate determination, based on these fundamentals, are introduced in the project. There are described concretely: purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, international Fisher effect and balance of payments theory. Validity of these theories is analyzed in practical part of this project. There are used economic dates from Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. Analysis is processed according to methods described in theoretical part. Results show, that using of methods based on inflation or interest rate is incorrect. Balance of payment theory seems to hold, but prediction of exchange rate development through this method is very complicated. Central banks of analysed countries present in financial stability reports, that exchange rate is determined by a lot of factors. So it is very difficult to comprise the factors into one model.
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Methods of prediction of exchange rate and analysis of the exchange rate of selected country
Burdeláková, Ingrida ; Brůna, Karel (advisor) ; Čermáková, Daniela (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with possibilities of prediction of future development of exchange rate. The exchange rate is shortly characterized at the beginning together with approaches of its determination like technical and fundamental analysis. Further three methods of long-time forecasting like purchasing power parity, interest rate parity and balance of payments theory are explained in more details. Practical part begins with description of the euro and real development of its exchange rate to U.S. dollar from the implementation of the euro in 1999 till the end of the year 2009. The validity of individual theories from the theoretical part is verified through formulas and other methods based on information about inflation rate, interest rate and balances of payments. Results of selected approaches are summarized in conclusion together with suitability of their practical application and possible reasons of differences between theory and reality.
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