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Analytic Network Process Method
Lesák, Petr ; Kalčevová, Jana (advisor) ; Černohous, Roman (referee)
The thesis is concerned with Multi-Criteria Decision Making, in particular the Analytic Network Process method. The introductory part is dedicated to compile all the theory necessary to understand the method and utilized throughout the paper. The Analytic Hierarchy Process method is described and later generalized in the form of the ANP. Part of the paper is a description of available software products that are able to solve the ANP models. The main focus is on the application of the method, the usability and efficiency of possible use in macroeconomics is tested. In the third chapter a macroeconomic forecasting model is developed in cooperation with experts. The results of this model are compared with the best available up-to-date forecasts by local and international institutions.
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Irrationality in the decision making process
Renner, Petr ; Švecová, Lenka (advisor) ; Vrbová, Lucie (referee)
The diploma thesis deals with the crucial aspect of manager's and leader's role in both public and private organizations -- decision making. It explains the different phases of the decision making process, and then challenges the classical concept based on the theory of rational choice with the results of many experiments outlining a slightly different picture of reality. It seems thought, that human decisions are not fully rational indeed. Despite the availability of advanced methods and tools, many of us instinctively rely on a variety of mental shortcuts and simplifications. Even worse, because they are rooted very deep into our minds and are rather non conscious, we tend to make the same mistakes again and again. To explore and to be fully aware of the danger of this psychological traps threatening the different phases of the decision making process, is the first important step on the way to weaken their influence. Tips and hints illustrated with many experiments and real-life examples from business in this thesis should help us to improve the quality of our decisions and achieve better results.
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Návrh strategie pro obchodování s futures kontrakty
Zeman, Jan
The paper considers by design of trading strategy for futures markets. The problem is defined as dynamic decision making task and it is solved using iteration spread in time and Monte Carlo method. The paper includes results on experiments with real data.
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