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Fuzzy and interval-probabilistic methods of risk assessment of the investment project implemented by public private partnership
Ostrouško, Viktorie ; Synek, Miloslav (advisor) ; Ivánek, Jiří (referee) ; Scholleová, Hana (referee)
The result of my dissertation justifies the use of fuzzy-sets theory to make a prediction of cost risk of a PPP project, when there is not enough information available to clearly describe the project, and, when the probability distributions of the variables that characterize the project are unknown. I showed that fuzzy-sets theory and linguistic variables may be effectively used in such a case. In this thesis were classified different types of uncertainty and investigated traditional methods for estimating efficiency of a investment project in conditions of uncertainty. On the basis of the analysis were offered new ways of conducting risk analysis for PPP projects with use of fuzzy sets theory. The main goal was to create an application model for risk assessment of the PPP project which, with a high degree of reliability, suggests a general assessment of situation. The goal set in my work was met. Model of risk assessment of the project proposed by me gives more stable results in comparison with the probabilistic model. For comparison were used different types of probability distribution functions and membership functions. The following conclusions and statements describe the novelty of the work on fuzzy logic and economic theory: develops a method of cash-flow (future expenditure connected with the appearance of risk) modeling of investment project in fuzzy environment, demonstrates the use of fuzzy sets theory in projects analyses and describes how to calculate and interpret this value, demonstrates example of the use of results applied to the analysis of infrastructure development project in Moscow, Russia. The possibility of using this method is not only in the analysis of infrastructure development projects, but also in realization of non-commercial projects by social institutes and government agencies.
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How business cycle affects marriage rate?
Kouklík, Jakub ; Houdek, Petr (advisor) ; Bolcha, Peter (referee)
The thesis finds out how business cycle (expressed as unemployment rate) affects marriage rate. The regression analysis has been done using fixed effects method with inclusion of robust errors on panel data of European Union countries from 2000 to 2010. Analysis confirmed significance of researched relationship. 1% increase in men's unemployment rate is connected with 0, 08% decrease in growth rate of marriage rate, which is caused by decreasing of demand for men because of lower incomes. On the contrary increase of women's unemployment rate about 1 % is connected with 0, 06% increase in growth rate of marriage rate, which indicates confirmation of women's economic independence hypothesis. Other significant variables were ratio of women to working population and income ratio. Whereas an increasing proportion of women in labor population causes decline in growth rate of marriage rate, women's catching up with men's income raises growth rate of marriage rate.
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Programming tools for creation expert systems
Hrbek, Filip ; Berka, Petr (advisor) ; Svátek, Vojtěch (referee)
This bachelor thesis is going to explore the supply of programming tools for creation expert system and compare these tools by established criteria. This document is divided into theoretical and practical part. The first one is trying to describe expert system topic including division of programming tools into general programming language, programming language for artificial intelligence and development toolkits for expert system. The reader can imagine general model, which will be compared by practical applications. In the practical part I have written something about established criteria. The study describes programming tools. Information about them I have found in the manuals, tutorials, information from manufacturer, testing these tools. In conclusion I have compared them in tables. I have chosen only few examples of programming tools, because the offer on now day market is too wide.
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Morphisms of Dempster's Semigroup: A Revision and Interpretation
Daniel, Milan
Analyzing three new approaches to interpretation, definition, and measurement of conflicts of belief Functions (BFs), we previously observed a possibility of expression of a BF Bel as Dempster's sum of non-conflicting BF Bel0 with the same plausibility decisional support as the original BF Bel has and of indecisive BF BelS which does not prefer any of the elements of frame of discernment. Based on this observation, the theory of homomorphisms of Dempster's semigroup (the algebra of non-extremal BFs on 2-element frame of discernment with Dempster's rule as its binary operation) is updated in the present contribution. New homomorphisms are introduced; their interpretation and relation to the original ones are presented.
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Can We Consider Inflation as a Suitable Indicator of Inflation?
Kloudová, Dana ; Hudík, Marek (advisor) ; Mičúch, Marek (referee)
Output gap belongs to standard indicators of inflationary pressures used in central banks. The aim of this paper is to find the answer to the question, whether we can consider output gap as a suitable indicator of inflation for the Czech economy. First hypothesis, which we analysed is that we can estimate output gap only with uncertainty. For confirmation or refutation of this hypothesis we used ten models of estimation of output gap. The second hypothesis is that output gap can be used as suitable indicator of inflation. For testing of this hypothesis we chose gap model from Coe, McDetmott (1997) -- with the level of output gap and the change (difference) of output gap. All tests confirmed, that central bank can use inflation as a useful indicator of inflation.
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Classification of strategical plans under conditions of the risk {--} decision making of investment by the apparatus of decision trees
JÍCHOVÁ, Romana
In my thesis I dealt with the capital decision making, with the methods to classification of the investments and with decision making under risk and uncertainty. The aim of the thesis was the application of mathematical methods by selection the options of the investments. The main task was to show the possibility of using decision trees, which are the graphical instruments for describing actions available to the decision maker. In the practical part there is described the process of making a decision tree on the example of the sale of real properties and on the example of the extraction of coal oil.
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Assessments of the investment projects efficiency in the sphere of the tourist trade
FALTUSOVÁ, Jana
The object of the bachelor work was to assess several item tools for efficiency analyse of capital projects, to make a classifications of capital projects, capital costs, investment risks and financial resource for long life property. The another object was to make a monitoring of possibilities for financing capital projects in the sphere of tourist trade from grants of European union and other institutions. After it I worked up a case study in classification specific investment in several parts of realization.
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