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On the Link between Spot and Forward Power Prices: A Comparative Analysis of German and Hungarian Power Market Efficiency
Harnych, Pavel ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Doležel, Pavel (referee)
This thesis examines the impact of shocks in spot prices on long-term forward contracts in power markets. A unique comparison of efficiency of German and Hungarian power markets is provided. The risk premium on week-ahead forward contract is scrutinized by both data inspection and by unbiased forward rate hypothesis (UFRH) testing. Additionally, the ex-post market's prediction error for this product is explained by main drivers of spot electricity price, which are presented in section devoted to introduction to power markets. Expectedly, Hungarian forwards with longer time-to-delivery are found to react heavily on spot market shocks after controlling for changes in short-run marginal costs of conventional power plants. Such outcome applies both to intra-day and weekly time horizons. However, this evidence was not found for German market. These results point out to immaturity and the presence of inefficiencies in Hungarian power market. However, Hungarian risk premia on week-ahead and day-ahead forward products turn out to be considerably lower than for Germany. This was confirmed by UFRH tests on week-ahead forward contracts, where a significant risk premium was found in Germany as opposed to Hungarian risk premium. This finding is surprising since Hungarian spot prices are more prone to upward...
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Pokles cen akcií v ex-dividend den a efektivnost trhů s akciovými opcemi
Křížek, Tomáš ; Dvořák, Petr (advisor) ; Stádník, Bohumil (referee) ; Svoboda, Martin (referee)
This paper analyses options/warrants price behavior around an ex-dividend day of underlying shares. Both equity options as financial instruments traded on options exchanges, and warrants/certificates as OTC financial instruments are analyzed. First, the paper analyzes the ex-dividend day share price drop. Findings of this part are further used to analyze the impact of unexpected share price decline on options prices. Further, the paper focuses on volumes of traded options contracts and changes in options prices around the ex-dividend day. The paper focuses on European shares and related options and warrants. The options data was collected from the options exchange EUREX and also from several OTC sources -- Vontobel, Lang & Schwarz, Erste, and xMarkets by Deutsche Börse. The main aim of the paper is to identify market inefficiencies in trading in and valuation of equity options. There are two main conclusions that around the ex-dividend day there is a significantly increased trading activity and the call options depreciate whereas put options appreciate between the cum-dividend and the ex-dividend day. This shows insufficient implementation of the share price drops into options valuation models of options dealers or investors / speculators. Further an impact of unexpected share price behavior was analyzed but no particular pattern has been identified. The impact of the unexpected share price drop (either too high or too low) has ambiguous implications on the options prices. Finally, ways how to utilize on knowledge of inefficient trading in options around the ex-dividend day were suggested. The suggestions were done both from the perspective of an investor / speculator and of an options dealer.
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The Empirical Analysis of Efficiency of Wagering Market
Flegr, Jan ; Hronza, Martin (advisor) ; Koubek, Ivo (referee)
Aim of this diploma thesis is to provide empirical tests of market efficiency of tennis wagering market. In large dataset, which consists of nearly 47 thousands matches and 225 thousands odds, I am searching for anomalies, which can prove market inefficiency. Potentially profitable and exploitable betting strategies are also examined. Main tools of empirical analysis are linear probability models and logit models. Favorit-longshot bias is present in my data, this finding is consistent with results of other empirical works (Lahvička, 2013; Cain, Law, Peel, 2000). Major contribution of this paper is confirmation of home-away bias, the issue, which was not tested in tennis matches so far. The same holds for chart-bias. I am not able to find profitable wagering rules based on out-of-sample predictions of my models. Simple betting rule, which consists of betting systematically on overwhelming favorites, is derived from historical odds. This strategy yields a profit 0,0094, but it's applicability is very limited.
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Eseje o ekonomii sportu
Lahvička, Jiří ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Schwarz, Jiří (referee) ; Pertold Gebická, Barbara (referee)
This dissertation consists of five articles about economics of sports. The first three articles investigate various types of outcome uncertainty and how they relate to match attendance demand, while the remaining two articles test the efficiency of sports betting markets. The first article presents a new method of calculating match importance. Unlike the previous approaches in the literature, it does not require ex-post information and can be used for any type of season outcome. The second article shows that the additional playoff stage in the Czech ice hockey "Extraliga" lowers the probability of the strongest team becoming a champion and thus increases seasonal uncertainty. The third article demonstrates that the inconsistent findings in the literature about the link between match uncertainty and attendance could be explained by wrongly specified regressions, proposes a new approach to analyzing the effect of match uncertainty and shows that attendance demand is maximized if teams of the same quality play against each other. The fourth article examines the favorite-longshot bias in the context of betting on tennis matches. It shows that the favorite-longshot bias pattern is consistent with bookmakers protecting themselves against both better informed insiders and the general public exploiting new information. The fifth article investigates the supposedly profitable strategy of betting on soccer draws using the Fibonacci sequence. The strategy is tested both in a simulated market and on a real data set and found to lose money.
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Comparison of basic characteristics (income, risks, degrees of effectiveness) in selected sectors and industries Stock Exchange
SAIKO, Michaela
The aim of this diploma work was to analyze a selected segment of the stock exchange market using the theory of market efficiency and the methods of technical and fundamental analysis, to form an optimal investment strategy on the basis of the findings. The American stock exchange market was analyzed. Six different segments of the capital market were selected ? gold, oil and gas pipelines, steel and iron, car parts, food and telecommunication services. Each segment was represented by eight companies. The general characteristics of the companies were compared according to their profits, degree of risk, alpha and beta coefficients. Fundamental analysis was used to monitor the correlation between future profits for 2012 and alpha coefficients for the period 2007 ? 2011. The theory was proven ? at low levels of future profits, high levels of alpha coefficients were measured and vice versa - at high levels of future profits, low levels of alpha coefficients were measured. During efficiency tests, runs tests and correlation tests were monitored. During runs tests, the number of turns of a real file was compared with the number of runs of a simulated file; no distinctive variances were identified in the monitored stock titles. Forms of market efficiency were proven during the correlation tests and runs tests. The methods of technical analysis used were sliding averages, RSI indicators and Momentum. Trading on the basis of technical analysis is not completely possible because we did not succeed in finding an existing optimal strategy. If an optimal strategy works out it is regardless of the segment?s characteristics. I recommend a passive strategy with regards to the fundamental analysis.
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Analysis of securities to capital markets (inter-industry comparison of the amount and structure of each type of risk and return on the selected stock exchanges)
WEISSOVÁ, Kateřina
The main objective of this thesis is to analyze selected sectors of the European capital market by means of methods of technical and fundamental analysis. Based on the results obtained for each frame exchanges, industry sectors and the best investment strategy. The first part deals with the theoretical description of securities to capital markets, investment strategies, methods of assessment of the securities in the capital markets, the theory of efficient markets, market testing and evidence of their effectiveness. On the European stock market index, including the German DAX30 randomly selected ninety nine companies with data for the period 2006 {-} the 2011th The work on the basis of a confirmed capital market inefficiencies can be found active investment strategy to achieve above average returns.
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Use of technical analysis in FOREX trading
Vítovec, Josef ; Žilák, Pavel (advisor) ; Stádník, Bohumil (referee)
The paper reacts to tremendous increase in popularity of FX trading among retail investors in recent years, caused mainly by easy accessibility through numerous online trading platforms and dramatic fall in trading costs. One of the accompanying trends along with increasing trading speed is a departure from fundamental analysis and shift towards more technical approach. In reaction to that, the paper aims to review the most popular technical trading rules and puts the findings in contrast with existing empirical literature and efficient market hypothesis. Although being far from discovering an ultimate trading formula, the paper concludes that selected trading strategies do demonstrate a certain degree of predictability of future exchange rate movements.
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Market efficiency and technical analysis on foreign exchange
Obergruber, Petr ; Pošta, Vít (advisor) ; Pikhart, Zdeněk (referee)
The dissertation name is: "Market efficiency and technical analysis on foreign exchange". The major goal is to explain the basic assumptions for technical analysis to be in operation and these assumptions are applied in the theory first for collecting general datas. Then these datas are applied on a historical datas. The dissertation divedes in 3 major parts. In the first one there is market efficiency in theory from few important economic experts. In the second part dissertation works with general knowledge of the technical analysis from efficient market hypothesis. The last part obtains general informations about foreign exchange called FOREX, it also contains the practical use of the technical analysis and their aplication on a diagram of the prices.
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Limits to the Efficiency of the Capital Market
Vyhlídka, Jan ; Pošta, Vít (advisor) ; Lopušník, Ondřej (referee)
The aim of this study is to gather insights into market efficiency and mechanisms that work in the financial markets. It provides a framework with an emphasis on liquidity and the failure of arbitrage that deepens our understanding of various financial crises. Described mechanisms are particularly relevant for the last financial crises - including 2007-2009, LTCM, and dot-com bubble. In the first chapter the concept of efficient markets is introduced. In the second chapter it is challenged from the point of view of noise trader theory and limits of arbitrage. The third chapter deals with market microstructure and liquidity. Last chapter shows importance and adverse effects of externalities, particularly of those causing liquidity spirals.
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Building savings
Konupková, Lenka ; Blahová, Naděžda (advisor)
This bachelor thesis deals with the macroeconomic view of the building savings. Readers should be made familiar with the basic principles of operation and a part of the history of this product. The core of the work consists of two parts. The first one describes the key changes in legislation and their impact on the efficiency of building society and the state budget. The second one is focused on the development of the basic indicators of building savings in the Czech Republic, especially in relation to changing economic and legislative conditions. It also includes a brief forecast of future development of building savings and other possible legislative changes and their consequences, not only in this specific segment.
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