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Subsidy competition for spillovers from inward foreign direct investment
Havránek, Tomáš ; Benáček, Vladimír (referee) ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor)
The first part conducts a meta-analysis of literature on intra-industry productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment. Apart from the traditional approach, robust meta-regression, random effects model, and probit meta-regression are employed. Results of combined significance analysis are mixed but it is apparent that papers published in leading academic journals tend to report rather insignificant results. Our findings suggest that cross-sectional and industry-level studies are likely to find relatively strong spillover effects, and that the choice of proxy for foreign presence is important. The pattern, however, seems to weaken over time. Contrary to previous studies, evidence for publication bias was not detected. The second part examines the microeconomic motivation of governments to provide tax incentives for foreign direct investment. The author applies the classical models of oligopoly to subsidy competition, endogenousing investment incentives, but leaving tax rates exogenous. According to the conventional wisdom, subsidy competition leads to overprovision of incentives. The results suggests that, in the oligopolistic framework, supranational coordination can either decrease or increase the supply of subsidies. Further, in the setting of subsidy regulation, the host country's corporate...
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Evaluating the Effect of 2014 Sanctions against Russia Using Synthetic Control Methods
Pchelintsev, Dmitriy ; Havránek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Víšek, Jan Ámos (referee)
THE ABSTRACT In the new global economy majority of the developed countries use imposition of sanctions in the case of some offences. I have applied the synthetic control methods on this particular case of political pressure to quantify the real costs of anti-Russian sanctions to the economy. Based on the results of this study it was identified, that real GDP growth rate of Russia was continuously reducing by about -1,19% per quarter on average. Reaching the highest value of sanction's effect of -2,8% in real GDP growth rate at the end of 2015. It was also revealed that sanctions had positive effect on current account balance of Russia, that indicator was increasing during the whole studied after sanction's period by about 3,15% per quarter on average. This thesis is presented as a research of interconnection the imposition of 2014 sanctions against Russia and indicators of economic development (GDP, inflation) using synthetic control methods. It was revealed that former economic and social mechanisms aren't capable to provide further development of economy of Russia, its self-sufficiency and safety. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords sanctions, synthetic control method, Russia, GDP growth rate, current account balance Author's e-mail 51375259@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail...
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Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say “Probably Not”
Havránek, Tomáš ; Sokolova, Anna
We show that three factors combine to explain the mean excess sensitivity reported in studies estimating consumption Euler equations: the use of macro data, publication bias, and liquidity constraints. When micro data are used, publication bias is corrected for, and the households under examination do not face liquidity constraints, the literature implies no evidence for the excess sensitivity of consumption to income. Hence little remains for pure rule-of-thumb behavior. The results hold when we control for 45 additional variables reflecting the methods employed by researchers and use Bayesian model averaging to account for model uncertainty. The estimates of excess sensitivity are also systematically affected by the order of approximation of the Euler equation, the treatment of non-separability between consumption and leisure, and the choice of proxy for consumption.
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Antikorozní ochrana ocelových konstrukcí
Havránek, Tomáš
The bachelor thesis is focused on description used corrosion systems which we currently use to protection steel structure as well as other products subject to corrosion. About corrosion we talk very often. The corrosion causes big damage to buildings, structures, machinery and other. Understanding the mechanism of corrosion may lead to the development of new and more effective methods of protection. The introduction of this work then speaks about corrosion. The work tries to explain the nature of corrosion. In the middle I describe a technology for the corrosion protection of steel and other materials. Closing part is concentrated on the use of corrosion tests for easy recognition of corrosion mechanisms and factors that cause corrosion and support. The result of these tests can be better estimate of aggression environment against materials and used anticorrosive protection.
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Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis
Havránek, Tomáš ; Horváth, Roman ; Zeynalov, Ayaz
An important question in development studies is how natural resource richness affects long-term economic growth. No consensus answer, however, has yet emerged, with approximately 40% of empirical papers finding a negative effect, 40% finding no effect, and 20% finding a positive effect. Does the literature taken together imply the existence of the so-called natural resource curse? In a quantitative survey of 402 estimates reported in 33 studies, we find that the effect of natural resources on growth is very small when potential publication bias and method heterogeneity are taken into account. Our results also suggest that three aspects of study design are especially effective in explaining the differences in results across studies: 1) including an interaction between natural resources and institutional quality, 2) controlling for the level of investment activity, and 3) distinguishing between different types of natural resources.
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Bank Efficiency and Interest Rate Pass-Through: Evidence from Czech Loan Products
Havránek, Tomáš ; Iršová, Zuzana ; Lešanovská, Jitka
An important component of monetary policy transmission is the pass-through from financial market interest rates, directly influenced or targeted by central banks, to the rates that banks charge firms and households. Yet the available evidence on the strength and speed of the pass-through is mixed and varies across countries, time periods, and even individual banks. We examine the pass-through mechanism using a unique data set of Czech loan and deposit products and focus on bank-level determinants of pricing policies, especially cost efficiency, which we estimate employing both stochastic frontier and data envelopment analysis. Our main results are threefold: First, the long-term pass-through was close to complete for most products before the financial crisis, but has weakened considerably afterward. Second, banks that provide high rates for deposits usually charge high loan markups. Third, cost-efficient banks tend to delay responses to changes in the market rate, smoothing loan rates for their clients.
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Dynamic Elasticities of Tax Revenue: Evidence from the Czech Republic
Havránek, Tomáš ; Iršová, Zuzana ; Schwarz, Jiří
Tax revenue elasticities with respect to tax bases are key parameters for the modeling of public finances. Yet the existing studies estimating these elasticities for post-transition countries disregard the effects of tax reforms on tax revenue, which renders their estimates inconsistent. We use a unique data set from the Czech Republic to account for the effects of reforms and estimate both short- and long-run tax revenue elasticities. Our results suggest that the long-run elasticities are 1.4 for wage tax, 0.9 for value added tax, 1.7 for profit tax, and 1 for social security contributions. The adjustment process for value added tax and social security contributions is fast, but for the remaining two categories it is important to distinguish between the short- and long-run elasticities: the initial response of revenue to changes in the bases is weak. In the case of wage tax it takes half a year for the elasticity to surpass unity.
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Habit Formation in Consumption: A Meta-Analysis
Havránek, Tomáš ; Rusnák, Marek ; Sokolova, Anna
We examine 567 estimates of habit formation from 69 studies published in peer-reviewed journals. In contrast to previous results for most fields of empirical economics, we find no publication bias in the literature. The median estimated strength of habit formation equals 0.4, but the estimates vary widely both within and across studies. We use Bayesian model averaging to assign a pattern to this variance while taking into account model uncertainty. Studies using micro data report consistently smaller estimates than macro studies: 0.1 vs. 0.6 on average. The difference remains large when we control for 21 other study aspects, such as data frequency, geographical coverage, variable definition, estimation approach, and publication characteristics. We also find that estimates of external habit formation tend to be substantially larger than those of internal habits, that evidence for habits weakens when researchers use higher data frequencies, and that estimates differ systematically across countries.
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Bank Competition and Financial Stability: Much Ado about Nothing?
Havránek, Tomáš ; Žigraiová, Diana
The theoretical literature gives conflicting predictions on how bank competition should affect financial stability, and dozens of researchers have attempted to evaluate the relationship empirically. We collect 598 estimates of the competition-stability nexus reported in 31 studies and analyze the literature using meta-analysis methods. We control for 35 aspects of study design and employ Bayesian model averaging to tackle the resulting model uncertainty. Our findings suggest that the definition of financial stability and bank competition used by researchers influences their results in a systematic way. The choice of data, estimation methodology, and control variables also affects the reported coefficient. We find evidence for moderate publication bias. Taken together, the estimates reported in the literature suggest little interplay between competition and stability, even when corrected for publication bias and potential misspecifications.
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Do Borders Really Slash Trade?: A Meta-Analysis
Havránek, Tomáš ; Iršová, Zuzana
National borders reduce trade, but most estimates of the border effect seem puzzlingly large. We show that major methodological innovations of the last decade combine to shrink the border effect to a one-third reduction in international trade flows worldwide. The border effect varies across regions: it is substantial in emerging countries, but relatively small in OECD countries. For the computation we collect 1,271 estimates of the border effect reported in 61 studies, codify 32 aspects of study design that may influence the estimates, and use Bayesian model averaging to take into account model uncertainty in meta-analysis. Our results suggest that methods systematically affect the estimated border effects. Especially important is the level of aggregation, measurement of internal and external distance, control for multilateral resistance, and treatment of zero trade flows. We find no evidence of publication bias.
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