|
|
Price Level Convergence and Real Exchange Rate Determinants in the New Member States of the European Union
Pospíšilová, Andrea ; Holub, Tomáš (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
Differences in price levels as well as inflation rates among countries have been subject of discussion for a long time. More than the actual levels, however, the question of determinants of price levels in time and a possible convergence is key for the new member states with respect to the Maastricht criteria. The dynamics of price levels is crucial, and many suggestions have been put forward to explain the observed trends and changes. This thesis focuses on the determinants of relative price level, and hence real exchange rate, developments in the new member states of the EU and employs a regression analysis to examine their change in time. As most of the countries in focus are transition economies, structural variables are also included among the independent variables. We find that the Balassa- Samuelson effect is key to explaining real exchange rate developments as the effect of productivity differential has been significant over the whole period examined. However, in the recent years, marked by the onset of the crisis, other factors, such as the structure of trade and Euro area membership, have become more prominent.
|
|
|
Effect of the exchange rate CZK on the amount of revenues from toll and time-toll systems on the roads in the Czech Republic
Raštica, Marek ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
This thesis examines the impact of the real exchange rate on the amount of revenues from a system of tolled and time tolled roads in the Czech Republic in the years 1999-2014. This effect is investigated on monthly data using regression analysis on two systems of tolled roads separately, system of tolled roads and system of time-tolled roads. Based on available dataset was shown a statistically significant negative effect of the real exchange rate on toll revenues in the system of tolled roads. In the case of time-tolled roads system was demonstrated negative effect of real exchange rate on time-toll revenues, but this effect is questionable, since the influence has been demonstrated only in a model with limited explanatory power.
|
|
|
Exchange Rate Dynamics and its Effect on Macroeconomic Volatility in Selected CEE Countries
Audzei, Volha ; Brázdik, František
To understand the potential for forming an optimum currency area it is important to investigate the origins of macroeconomic volatility. We focus on the contribution of exchange rate shocks to macroeconomic volatility in selected Central and Eastern European countries. The contribution of the exchange rate shock relative to other shocks allows us to evaluate whether the Exchange rate is a source of volatility or a buffer against shocks as the theory suggests. The identification of the contributions is based on variance decomposition in two-country structural VAR models, which are identified by the sign restriction method. We identify countries where shocks are predominantly symmetric relative to the effective counterpart and countries where the contribution of real exchange rate shocks is strong. In general, for all the countries considered the results are consistent with the real exchange rate having a shock-absorbing nature. Finally, a significant role of symmetric monetary policy shocks in movements in real exchange rates is found for some of the countries.
Fulltext:  PDF
|
|
|
Analysis of the effect of natural resources extraction on the economy: Dutch disease effect in Norway and Venezuela between 1973 - 2013
Sachunský, Jaromír ; Doležal, Ondřej (advisor) ; Ševčíková, Michaela (referee)
The aim of this bachelor thesis is to examine the impact of the consequences of the Dutch disease effect on the economy of Norway and Venezuela between 1973 -- 2013. How is it possible that Norway was able to accumulate the oil revenues in the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world while Venezuela has been long economically troubles? The introductory part defines the theoretical framework of the Dutch disease, the usual course outline and the most common consequences. While Norway serves as a textbook example of a country that managed to honourably overcome the disease effects Venezuela, on the contrary, cannot emerge of its consequences. In the last part of the thesis empirical comparisons of selected data are made, which further confirm the theoretical foundations.
|
|
|
Global Imbalance of Savings and Investments and US Current Account Dynamics
Ševec, Vladimír ; Hurník, Jaromír (advisor) ; Chytilová, Helena (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to find a reason why the US current account is in deficit, which is in contradiction of theoretical expectation. Prevailing discusion is about savings glut and defects in monetary policy. In our opinion both sides ignore China`s rising influence and real exchange rate. Balassa-Samuelson`s effect predict real exchange rate appreciation in converging economies, as long as their real GDP grows. Analysis of real exchange rate of Renminbi shows contradiction with Balassa-Samuelson effect, which is attributed to conditions on Chinese labour market. Chinese internal imbalance has impacts on global economy and nonappreciating real exchange rate of Renminbi deforming international trade is one of the factors that causes US current account deficit.
|
guest ::
