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Měření finanční nákazy pomocí CAViaR metody: Aplikace na Evropu
Tomanová, Petra ; Zouhar, Jan (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to measure changes in dependencies among returns on equity indices for European countries in tranquil periods against crisis periods and to investigate their asymmetries in the lower and upper tail of their distributions. The approach is based on a conditional probability that a random variable is lower than a given quantile while other random variables are also lower than their corresponding quantiles. Time-varying conditional quantiles are modeled by the Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk via Regression Quantiles (CAViaR) method. In addition to the univariate conditional autoregressive models, the vector autoregressive extension is considered. In the second step, the conditional probability is estimated through the OLS regression. Moreover, the model which allows the distribution of returns in one country to lead or to lag the distribution of returns in another country, is defined and applied on European equity returns. Finally, the model measuring dependencies among more than two return series is derived and the relating dimensionality problems are discussed. The results document a significant increase in European equity return comovements in bear markets during the crisis in 1990s and 2000s. The explicit controlling for the high volatility days does not appear to have an impact on the main findings. For the comparison purposes, the results for Latin American countries are reported as well.
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The Impact of Migration on Economic Growth
Jančíková, Denisa ; Cahlík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
Human migration, the movement of people from one place to another with intention of settling there temporarily or permanently, is an integral part of development of human society. The beginning of the Industrial Revolution in late 18th century has resulted in economic growth and improvement of living standards. Countries, in which was industrialisation most intense attracted most immigrants. Second wave of migration was in second half of 20th century caused by development of communication technologies, which gave opportunities to less developed countries improve their economic development. This diploma thesis is aimed exactly on this period. Its goal is to research the impact of migration on economic growth and find out if the flow of migrants is beneficial for the economy or the exact opposite. The impact is examined by regression analysis on panel data for almost 200 hundred countries from whole world for time period 1955-2004.
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Application of the Time Series Analysis for Prediction
Nováčková, Monika ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis attempts to predict daily number of firefighter incidents in the Central Bohemia Region and in the Region of Hradec Králové to improve firefighter shift planning. The analysis is based on a dataset of firefighter incidents from the period between the years 2008 and 2012. Econometric models, capturing yearly and weekly patterns and weather impact were estimated and used for long-term prediction. The first part of the thesis provides a description of tests applied to residuals and other econometric tests used in this study. Then linear regression is applied to model weather impact and effects of days of week and months of year. In the next part regression with AR errors, (S)ARMA models and regression with (S)ARMA errors are estimated. All these models are compared according to properties of residuals and out-of-sample mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The most accurate models predict daily number of incidents two months ahead with MAPE slightly above 20% which is considerably better than the benchmark Holt-Winters method. Regression models with (S)ARMA errors produce relatively accurate long-term forecasts and its error terms are uncorrelated. Therefore, they can be considered suitable for long-term prediction of firefighter incidents.
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Econometric analysis of oil price
Novotný, Lukáš ; Formánek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Čížek, Ondřej (referee)
This bachelor thesis is focused on econometric analysis of oil price WTI. The purpose of the work is to find what factors have influence on the oil price. These factors are tested by econometric methods and after choosing the selected variables I tried to build up some models which describe the oil price WTI movements. In building up the models I am using econometric approaches to correct the models. The bachelor thesis is divided into 3 main chapters -- two of them are theoretical and the last chapter is practical. In the theoretic parts there is a summary of oil facts, extraction, processing of oil, oil market and there is a description of selected econometric methods. In practical part there are my own models and comments on the results. The resulting models show weaker effect of traditionally expected factors like supply and demand for oil and on the other hand greater influence of other factors like global financial crisis or oil stocks. The bachelor thesis leads to proving some thesis from the used literature. It also shows the complexity of creating oil price.
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Econometric Estimation of Loss Given Default
Jacina, Viktor ; Dlouhá, Zuzana (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
One of the most mentioned credit risk parameters in banking sector is loss given default (LGD). The regulatory framework allows to use own LGD estimation procedures after approval. The classification and regression trees are appropriate and flexible in this context and they offer some advantages comparing to the traditional approaches such as linear regression model. This work includes a theoretical background on tree based methods. In the last section, loss given default from debit accounts is estimated using the random forests which show the best performance in this case.
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The empirical analysis of the project: Stáže ve firmách
Švarc, Michal ; Formánek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Čížek, Ondřej (referee)
This paper is dedicated to the empirical analysis of the pilot trainee project Stáže ve firmách, which is considered as treatment in this analysis. The main objective of the empirical analysis is estimation of average treatment effect(ATE) and average treatment effect on treated(ATET) for characteristics like socioeconomic status and wage. Counterfactual methods for policy impact evaluation like Difference in Differences Estimator(DiD), First Differences Estimator(FD) and Propensity Score Matching(PSM) are used to estimation mentioned effects. This paper contains extension of Assignment Problem that is used for people matching purposes as alternative for PSM. This way of matching provides better control over creation of couples. Resulting pairs are more similar in selected characteristics due to better control during couples creation process.
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Model realizované stochastické volatility v praxi
Vavruška, Marek ; Zouhar, Jan (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
Realised Stochastic Volatility model of Koopman and Scharth (2011) is applied to the five stocks listed on NYSE in this thesis. Aim of this thesis is to investigate the effect of speeding up the trade data processing by skipping the cleaning rule requiring the quote data. The framework of the Realised Stochastic Volatility model allows the realised measures to be biased estimates of the integrated volatility, which further supports this approach. The number of errors in recorded trades has decreased significantly during the past years. Different sample lengths were used to construct one day-ahead forecasts of realised measures to examine the forecast precision sensitivity to the rolling window length. Use of the longest window length does not lead to the lowest mean square error. The dominance of the Realised Stochastic Volatility model in terms of the lowest mean square errors of one day-ahead out-of-sample forecasts has been confirmed.
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Analysis of relation between macroeconomic indicators and economic results of a company
Scigel, Pavel ; Dlouhá, Zuzana (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
The Czech Republic's economic performance is measurable by some macroeconomic indicators which have made variable progress in recent years. Based on general economic conditions, economic development has impacted upon economic results of companies. Over time their progress is recorded by economic time series, which describe it. Through the agency of economic time series, economic development and mutual dependences among indicators can be researched. This problem can be solved by applying the methodology which helps describe and quantify relations among quantities. For the purpose of expression of a single time series, stochastic linear modelling is used, and for quantifying the strength of relation among time series, regression analyses and Granger causality testing are used.
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Econometric analysis of transmission mechanism in CZ
Plechatá, Zuzana ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
This diploma thesis presents results of analysis of monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic employing the vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The responsible authority for monetary policy is Czech National Bank that has been using the inflation targeting regime to conduct its monetary policy since 1998. The inflation rate changes, i.e. the changes in repo rate represent a monetary tool for steering actual inflation rate towards the projected or "target" inflation rate. The linear correlation between 2 weeks repo rate and 1 month PRIBOR rate is confirmed. The transmission mechanism is examined within the VAR framework and the relationships between the 1 month PRIBOR rate, gross domestic product and inflation rate are studied. The VAR model including 1 lag is considered as the best performing model. The relationships among variables are analysed by related approaches -- Granger causality, impulse response functions and cointegration. The ability of model to create forecasts is assessed and the ex ante forecasts are produced for one-year horizon. The effects of alternative monetary policies are the subject of scenario analysis.
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Simulation analysis of the impact of alternative rates of VAT
Lacinová, Věra ; Hušek, Roman (advisor) ; Formánek, Tomáš (referee)
This thesis is composed of free main chapters. The first two chapters of is a theoretical part. The first chapter is devoted to the theory of economic policy and analysis of economic indicators. The second chapter concerns the econometric theory and describes vector autoregression models theory and econometric forecasting. In the third, practical part, aims to find out with the help of real data of the Czech economy impacts of alternative VAT rates on selected indicators of the czech economy, these indicators are gross domestic product, unemployment rate and consumer price index. As a tool to determine the impact of using models and vector autoregression method scenarios.
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