|
|
Regional yield forecasting for improved decision making in the plant production
Trnka, Miroslav ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Kudláčková, Lucie ; Balek, Jan ; Meitner, Jan ; Možný, Martin ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Bartošová, Lenka ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Bláhová, Monika ; Lukas, Vojtěch ; Žalud, Zdeněk
The methodology describes how to predict yields of key crops, and at the same time addresses reliability of the predictions and how these can be used. The ability to predict yield levels more than 2 months prior the harvest on the level of regions (NUTS3¨) and districts (LAU1) brings also new opportunities to mitigate impacts of adverse conditions. The methodology shows that the yield forecasts and yield anomalies in particular are consistent and usable in practices. In this methodology, the results of 2018 yield forecasts are presented as an example. The yield forecasting system for the Czech Republic is fully functional and is and will be available through www.vynosy-plodin.cz.
|
|
|
Using growth models to evaluate field crops management practices and influence on soil processes
Hlavinka, Petr ; Trnka, Miroslav ; Balek, Jan ; Dubrovský, Martin ; Pohanková, Eva ; Wimmerová, Markéta ; Žalud, Zdeněk
The publication describes the application of growth model for evaluation of different farming methods in the cultivation of selected field crops and their influence on selected soil processes and conditions. This publication focuses on complex simulations in the soil-plant-atmosphere-farmer interaction system using the HERMES model. The ability to simulate processes in crop rotation scheme continuously and uninterruptedly (e.g. over a period of more than 100 years) gives the opportunity to assess the long-term trends in soil processes, both due to different approaches to farming and combined with selected location and soil conditions. It is possible also for selected scenarios of climate change in future. This material presents both the outputs for weather conditions without any considered climate change and conditions reflecting the shift in climatic conditions during the 21st century based on 6 selected climatic scenarios. The expected impacts on the growth and yields of the target field crops are also quantified for the selected combination of conditions.
|
|
|
System for monitoring and forecast of impacts of agricultural drought
Trnka, Miroslav ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Chuchma, F. ; Možný, M. ; Bartošová, Lenka ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Balek, Jan ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Skalák, Petr ; Farda, Aleš ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Meitner, Jan ; Bláhová, M. ; Fiala, R. ; Žalud, Zdeněk
The methodology describes how to predict soil moisture and drought intensity, and at the same time addresses reliability of the predictions and how these can be used. The ability to predict soil moisture values over a period of up to 9 days is presented through using ensemble of models for numerical weather forecasts. This method brings also new opportunities to mitigate impacts during drought events by farmers using such forecasting tools. With regard to the relatively high predictability of soil moisture and drought intensity, the methodology introduces the basic procedures and provides necessary information for the users. In this methodology, the results of 2017 drought event are presented as an example. The drought forecasting system for the Czech Republic is fully functional and is and will be available through www.intersucho.cz.
|
|
|
Agroclimatic analysis of perspective changes of starting production conditions for agricultural entities and related impacts to land valuation system
Trnka, Miroslav ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Balek, Jan ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Dubrovský, Martin ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Žalud, Zdeněk
The aim of this report is to evaluate the analyses prepared within the contractual research collaboration implemented within the project number of the EEA-CZ02 1-039-2015-OV-called "Complex planning, monitoring, information and educational tools to adapt the territory to the impacts of climate change with major focus on agricultural and forest landscape management" funded by the EEA Fund 2009 - 2014 program CZ02 - Biodiversity and ecosystem services /. The study focuses on the South Moravian Region (SMR) and follows a report assessing the impact of expected climatic conditions prepared for the above-mentioned project in October 2016. Like the previous study, this part is processed based on the 5 selected global circulation models (GCMs) and for two emission scenarios and the period 2021-2040. Since a detailed description of the scenarios includes a previous report confines itself in this text only on the most important outputs relevant to SMR.
|
|
|
Drought monitor for the Czech Republic-www.intersucho.cz
Trnka, Miroslav ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Balek, Jan ; Možný, M. ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Hayes, M. ; Eitzinger, Josef ; Žalud, Zdeněk
Because drought and its impacts are among the worst hydrometeorological extremes (including also Central European conditions), the aim of this paper is to describe the core and use of the Integrated drought monitoring system for the Czech Republic. Land-use, information about soil, vegetation characteristics and meteorological data are used as inputs to validated water balance SoilClim model, which is applied for estimates of actual and reference evapotranspiration and water saturation of the soil profile in % or soil moisture content in mm. Moreover the prognosis of expected soil moisture (based on probabilistic analysis) is calculated for next 1, 2, 4 and 8 weeks. Main results are weekly updated in form of drought occurrence maps, which are published in spatial resolution 500 m for whole territory of the Czech Republic and for all its 76 districts separately. Final maps with detail comments are available at drought topic dedicated web page (ANONYM 3 2014).
|
|
|
Detection of drought events using combination of satellite data and soil moisture modelling
Semerádová, Daniela ; Trnka, Miroslav ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Balek, Jan ; Bohovič, Roman ; Tadesse, T. ; Hayes, M. ; Wardlow, B. ; Žalud, Zdeněk
The use of satellite data offers a potentially well usable tool to accurate drought monitoring. The study examines the space-time possibility of agricultural drought detection using freely available data from the MODIS instrument onboard Terra and Aqua satellites that reflects vegetation condition. Vegetation greenness metrics used in this study are based on the spectral reflectance curves in the visible red and near-infrared part of the spectrum and are expressed in relation to the average for the period of 2000-2014. The results are presented in weekly time step for the whole area of the Czech Republic, and are compared to the drought monitor system, based on the SoilClim dynamic model for soil water content estimates. These data, as well as other parameters, such as soil properties and land use, are integrated at 500 meters spatial resolution.
|
|
|
Balancing Assessment of Available Water Resources and Moisture Needs within Defined "Irrigation Districts”
Trnka, Miroslav ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Balek, Jan ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Dubrovský, Martin ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Vizina, A. ; Hanel, M. ; Žalud, Z. ; Lukas, V. ; Dumbrovský, M. ; Růžek, P. ; Daňhelka, J. ; Chuchma, F. ; Novák, P. ; Novotný, I. ; Pavlík, F.
This report is processing research results done within the contractual cooperation of the Institute of Global Change Research (as a research provider) and Státní pozemkový úřad - the Czech National Land Authority (demander), which was prepared in collaboration with other research partners. The report deals with balancing assessment of available water resources and moisture needs within defined "irrigation districts” of the Czech Republic with regard to the ongoing climate change
|
|
| |
|
|
Prediction of crop yields using satellite remote sensing
Lukas, V. ; Trnka, Miroslav ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Rajdl, Kamil ; Balek, Jan ; Štěpánek, Petr ; Zahradníček, Pavel ; Hlavinka, Petr ; Žalud, Zdeněk
Knowledge of the crop yield with sufficient lead time prior to harvest is crucial for both the farm management and the agro-food sector policy. The aim of this study was to test feasibility of developing crop yield forecasting model in Czech Republic for winter wheat, spring barley and oilseed rape based on 2000-2014 database of vegetation indices Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra satellite in form of 16-days composites. An average yield data were collected for 14 selected districts in the Czech Republic that represent the regions with more intensive agricultural production among varying climate and topographic conditions. The viability of the concept was proven in years with significant yield decline i.e. 2000, 2003, 2006 and 2012, when yields of cereals were significantly affected by occurred drought periods. More stable regression results were achieved in the most productive areas such as Olomouc and Prerov, whilst models in highland regions were influenced by lower acreage of three modelled crops and higher prevalence of fodder crops. In most cases, EVI2 showed higher correlations to the crop yield together with using an average value of all composites during vegetation period.
|
|
|
Remote sensing as support tool for agricultural drought assessment
Hlavinka, Petr ; Semerádová, Daniela ; Balek, Jan ; Žalud, Z. ; Tadesse, T. ; Hayes, M. ; Wardlow, B. ; Trnka, Miroslav
Very important information about vegetation condition within wide areas (through continents and states) or for local areas in resolution from hundreds to tens of meters could be obtained from satellites within remote sensing. The temporal and spatial continuity is big advantage of this method. Namely so-called vegetation indices are often used for vegetation cover condition assessment. The aim of submitted study is to present possibility of using EVI2 (Enhanced Vegetation Index) for assessment of drought impact within vegetation. The results for selected years of the period 2000-2015 achieved using MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) aboard Terra satellite are included. The data in weekly time step and for the whole Czech Republic are presented.
|
guest ::
RSS feed.