Název: Leading, coincident and lagging indicators in the U.S. business cycles
Překlad názvu: Leading, coincident and lagging indicators in the U.S. business cycles
Autoři: Bon, Andrew ; Janíčko, Martin (vedoucí práce) ; Prokop, Jaromír (oponent)
Typ dokumentu: Bakalářské práce
Rok: 2015
Jazyk: eng
Nakladatel: Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze
Abstrakt: This thesis focuses mainly on analysing leading indicators of business cycles within the USA since the 1960s until the present, while providing theoretical background to the coincident and lagging indicators. United States is a country with incredibly rich amounts of data, which enable a thorough analysis of individual variables. First part is dedicated to different theories that explain the behaviour of cyclical fluctuations, such as a monetarist, Keynesian, or real business cycle approaches are included, followed by defining individual cyclical indicators with the provision of examples. Second part consists of actual analysis starting with dating post-war cycles and real GDP development. Three leading indicators are then analysed and evaluated, specifically the amounts of building permits issued, spread between a 10-year Treasury constant maturity bill and Federal funds rate and finally the unemployment insurance claims. Evaluation is based on individual success rates obtained from historical data. The third and final chapter attempts to forecast the economic outlook of the current business cycle using obtained data from the previous chapter. Conclusion provides an overall summary of individual parts along with pointing out the main findings.
Klíčová slova: Bussiness cycle; Economic fluctuations; Forecast recessions; Leading indicators; Business cycle; Economic fluctuations; Forecast recessions; Leading Indicators

Instituce: Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze (web)
Informace o dostupnosti dokumentu: Dostupné v digitálním repozitáři VŠE.
Původní záznam: http://www.vse.cz/vskp/eid/46712

Trvalý odkaz NUŠL: http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-194960


Záznam je zařazen do těchto sbírek:
Školství > Veřejné vysoké školy > Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze
Vysokoškolské kvalifikační práce > Bakalářské práce