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Analysis of Economic Indicators Using Statistical Methods
Fürst, Lukáš ; Šroler, Jakub (referee) ; Novotná, Veronika (advisor)
This thesis inquires into history of selected investment tools and provides technical analysis of them. As the source of information, real official results of given tools are used. The goal is to analyze the data of past years in order to compare the tools using magic triangle. The thesis consists of several parts. It starts with theoretical part that describes the reasons for this questioning, as well as the methods that are used in the rest of the thesis. Then there is the practical part, where real results are processed and compared and some conclusions are made of them. The final part of the thesis is a script in Visual Basic that acts as a utility for investors. Based on his preferences and expectations, it can propose the fittest investment.
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Value-at-risk forecasting with the ARMA-GARCH family of models during the recent financial crisis
Jánský, Ivo ; Rippel, Milan (advisor) ; Seidler, Jakub (referee)
The thesis evaluates several hundred one-day-ahead VaR forecasting models in the time period between the years 2004 and 2009 on data from six world stock indices - DJI, GSPC, IXIC, FTSE, GDAXI and N225. The models model mean using the AR and MA processes with up to two lags and variance with one of GARCH, EGARCH or TARCH processes with up to two lags. The models are estimated on the data from the in-sample period and their forecasting ac- curacy is evaluated on the out-of-sample data, which are more volatile. The main aim of the thesis is to test whether a model estimated on data with lower volatility can be used in periods with higher volatility. The evaluation is based on the conditional coverage test and is performed on each stock index sepa- rately. Unlike other works in this eld of study, the thesis does not assume the log-returns to be normally distributed and does not explicitly select a partic- ular conditional volatility process. Moreover, the thesis takes advantage of a less known conditional coverage framework for the measurement of forecasting accuracy.
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Value-at-risk forecasting with the ARMA-GARCH family of models during the recent financial crisis
Jánský, Ivo ; Rippel, Milan (advisor) ; Seidler, Jakub (referee)
The thesis evaluates several hundred one-day-ahead VaR forecasting models in the time period between the years 2004 and 2009 on data from six world stock indices - DJI, GSPC, IXIC, FTSE, GDAXI and N225. The models model mean using the AR and MA processes with up to two lags and variance with one of GARCH, EGARCH or TARCH processes with up to two lags. The models are estimated on the data from the in-sample period and their forecasting accuracy is evaluated on the out-of-sample data, which are more volatile. The main aim of the thesis is to test whether a model estimated on data with lower volatility can be used in periods with higher volatility. The evaluation is based on the conditional coverage test and is performed on each stock index separately. Unlike other works in this field of study, the thesis does not assume the log-returns to be normally distributed and does not explicitly select a particular conditional volatility process. Moreover, the thesis takes advantage of a less known conditional coverage framework for the measurement of forecasting accuracy.
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Value-at-risk forecasting with the ARMA-GARCH family of models during the recent financial crisis
Jánský, Ivo ; Rippel, Milan (advisor) ; Seidler, Jakub (referee)
The thesis evaluates several hundred one-day-ahead VaR forecasting models in the time period between the years 2004 and 2009 on data from six world stock indices - DJI, GSPC, IXIC, FTSE, GDAXI and N225. The models model mean using the AR and MA processes with up to two lags and variance with one of GARCH, EGARCH or TARCH processes with up to two lags. The models are estimated on the data from the in-sample period and their forecasting ac- curacy is evaluated on the out-of-sample data, which are more volatile. The main aim of the thesis is to test whether a model estimated on data with lower volatility can be used in periods with higher volatility. The evaluation is based on the conditional coverage test and is performed on each stock index sepa- rately. Unlike other works in this eld of study, the thesis does not assume the log-returns to be normally distributed and does not explicitly select a partic- ular conditional volatility process. Moreover, the thesis takes advantage of a less known conditional coverage framework for the measurement of forecasting accuracy.
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Analysis of Economic Indicators Using Statistical Methods
Fürst, Lukáš ; Šroler, Jakub (referee) ; Novotná, Veronika (advisor)
This thesis inquires into history of selected investment tools and provides technical analysis of them. As the source of information, real official results of given tools are used. The goal is to analyze the data of past years in order to compare the tools using magic triangle. The thesis consists of several parts. It starts with theoretical part that describes the reasons for this questioning, as well as the methods that are used in the rest of the thesis. Then there is the practical part, where real results are processed and compared and some conclusions are made of them. The final part of the thesis is a script in Visual Basic that acts as a utility for investors. Based on his preferences and expectations, it can propose the fittest investment.
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Stock Exchanges in the Czech Republic and in Some of Other EU Member Countries
FIALA, Jakub
The bachelor thesis titled The Stock Exchange Market in the Czech Republic and Selected EU Member States deals with the establishment and development of the capital market in the Czech Republic, Hungary and the United Kingdom. The main objective of the thesis is to evaluate the development of stock exchange indicators in 2006 and a few more years in the past. The theoretical part, explaining the basic concepts, is followed by the presentation of the main stock exchange index for the stock market and bond market respectively, on each of the stock exchanges separately. Subsequently, all the indexes were mutually compared. Efficiency, liquidity and the risk level were examined on all the individual markets separately. The comparison of all the indicators and outcomes resulted in a clear conclusion that the London Stock Exchange is the most developed among the currently compared ones, belonging to the group of the world{\crq}s major stock exchanges. Both stock exchanges from the Central European region should, in theoretical terms, have similar results. However, the reality is different. As regards the volumes of trades, in this case, a larger volume in 2006 was traded on the Prague Stock Exchange. However, if we look at the results of the other indicators, the Budapest Stock Exchange achieved better figures in almost all the other cases.
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International stock markets in conditions of financial crisis
Otýpková, Michaela ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Plchová, Božena (referee)
This diploma thesis deals with trading in the international stock markets in conditions of financial crisis. The theoretical part covers basic definitions associated with stock markets, followed by a chapter dedicated to business cycles, which are significantly related to the stock markets. The first goal of the thesis is numerical comparison of the extensions of the actual financial crisis with the most meaningful financial crisis over last one hundred years. The second aim of the work is to effectuate the technical analysis using selected technical indicators and evaluate its results in chosen periods.
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