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Model predicting the evolution of the prison population (PRISMOD)
Dušek, Libor ; Buonanno, Paolo ; Vávra, Jan
The certified methodology describes the newly developed PRISMOD simulation model and the software that implements it. The main purpose of the model is to project the evolution of the sentenced prison population in the Czech Republic over the next 10 years. The model adopts the inflow-outflow approach and models the prison population as a function of the underlying parameters that are estimated from statistical data. The key parameters are the number of crimes recorded, the probability of charges and conviction, probability of a prison sentences, the sentence length, and the probability of parole release from prison. The model also takes into account the prisoners that enter prison upon the probation, parole, or community service violations. The prison population is modeled separately by nine crime categories and by high-security and low-security prisons.
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Does prison overcrowding loom again? Predicting the prison population in the Czech Republic
Dušek, Libor
The study presents a projection of the prison population in the Czech Republic based on a\nnewly developed simulation model. It also points out the main trends in the criminal justice\npolicy and quantifies their impact on the past growth in the prison population.\nCzech prisons currently house 18,609 sentenced inmates. Unless crime rates and criminal\njustice policy change, we estimate that by the end of 2016 this number will reach 20,000 and\nthen level off at 20,360 inmates. If the current trends in the crime rates and criminal justice\npolicy continue, the sentenced prison population will steadily grow and will surpass 21,740\nby 2024.
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Where to look for the causes of overcrowded prisons
Dušek, Libor
In the past 10 years, the number of prisoners increased rapidly from 13,000 to 20,500 and the insufficient capacity of prisons became a serious problem. The study shows that the main reasons for the overcrowding of prisons are the immense increase of the probability that a detained offender is convicted together with the increase of the share of convicts receiving a prison sentence. These factors increased the number of prisoners by 3,300 and 3,100, respectively. Another less important reason for the growth of prison population is that the length of sentences has increased in the last two years. Furthermore, the prisoner numbers are affected by the declining crime rate. If crime did not decline in the previous years, the prisons would have to accommodate nearly 24,000 inmates. The study concludes that the current crime policy will lead to even further increase of prisoners. This is because of the dynamics of prisoners’ arrival and release. Due to recent tightening of crime policy, we have not yet reached a balance in the number of prisoners. The study suggests that a potential amnesty would bring only short-term relief and prisons would very quickly be filled again. At least a partial solution would be to use alternative penalties more frequently. If the crime policy continues on the same track, however, the capacity of prisons needs to be extended.
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