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Banking and Currency Crises: Differential Diagnostics for Developed Countries
Joy, Mark ; Rusnák, Marek ; Šmídková, Kateřina ; Vašíček, Bořek
We identify a set of “rules of thumb” that characterise economic, financial and structural conditions preceding the onset of banking and currency crises in 36 advanced economies over 1970–2010. We use the Classification and Regression Tree methodology (CART) and its Random Forest (RF) extension, which permits the detection of key variables driving binary crisis outcomes, allows for interactions among key variables and determines critical tipping points. We distinguish between basic country conditions, country structural characteristics and international developments. We find that crises are more varied than they are similar. For banking crises we find that low net interest rate spreads in the banking sector and a shallow or inverted yield curve are their most important forerunners in the short term, whereas in the longer term it is high house price inflation. For currency crises, high domestic short-term rates coupled with overvalued exchange rates are the most powerful short-term predictors. We find that both country structural characteristics and international developments are relevant banking crisis predictors. Currency crises, however, seem to be driven more by country idiosyncratic, short-term developments. We find that some variables, such as the domestic credit gap, provide important unconditional signals, but it is difficult to use them as conditional signals and, more importantly, to find relevant threshold values.
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Potential sources of currency and banking crises in emerging markets
Brožka, Michal ; Revenda, Zbyněk (advisor) ; Dvořák, Pavel (referee) ; Žák, Milan (referee)
The thesis examines potential sources of currency crisis, banking crisis and twin crisis in a region of Central Europe, Eastern Europe, South-Eastern Europe and Baltics. The text assumes some basic knowledge of the theories of financial crisis and, thus, ommits some relevant details in the theoretical parts. The thesis aids at fading variables, which could signal vurnerability of a country to a curency, banking and twin crisis. In the second chapter we introduce a financial crisis typology. The text also briefly shows the theoretical and empirical studies of the financial crisis and introduces definitions of currency, banking and twin crisis. In the third chapter we identify the periods of financial crisis in the given region. Then we introduce the explanatory variables. In the fourth chapter we estimate logit model to explain the conditional probability of all the three types of financial crisis. In the fifth chapter we estimate the out-of-sample conditional probability of occurring crisis. In the end we discuss the results and possible recommendation for economic policy or investors. We find that some macroeconomic variables are significant when explaining financial crisis. For all three types of financial crisis these variables were significant: Share of total foreign debt to foreign reserves, interest rate differential, excessive credit expansion (its share to GDP).
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Evaluation Of Exchange Rate Regimes During And After Currency Crises
Zadák, Miroslav ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (advisor) ; Mandel, Martin (referee)
Currency crises have become an essential part of one's economy life. The periodicity of currency crises and its implications towards the real economy is an issue which the international economics should bear in mind. The thesis which I am presenting tries to give an overview how the exchange rate regimes interact with the currency crises. Firstly, the Market Pressure Index (MPI), which is used for catching the crises, is introduced. Then after the introduction chapters I use gathered data to analyze the observed crises. The last chapter is there to give a summary about obtained knowledge. The most valuable information, regarding the currency crises, is that the stricter the monetary regime after the currency crises is the less of the output occurs. This is the main finding emerged from the pre and post analysis of monetary regimes. Another finding is that the loss of output is primarily connected with a shift from any pegged arrangement to a floating arrangement. The shifts which took place under the pegged arrangements completely do not seem to have an impact towards the real output. Finally, Real Exchange Effective Rate seems to be an element which connects all the studied crises. This opinion reflects the current research topic in international economics.
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Currency crises and the role of International Monetary Fund
Dostálek, Marek ; Helísek, Mojmír (advisor) ; Sedláček, Petr (referee)
Thesis analyses role of International Monetary Fund in currency crises its proceedings and instruments and thereof arising criticism. In the first chapter there are stated definitions of currency crises, described their causes and possibilities of prevention. Short description of the Fund and used instruments in its operations are also included. The main focus is on analysis of the approach of the IMF to significant currency crises since 1990's. Mexican, south-east Asian, Argentinean and Icelandic crises are analyzed. As a practical aspect of the thesis approach of the IMF to currency crisis in the Czech republic in 1997 is examined as well. In analysis there is always stated overall description of the crisis, approach of the IMF to mitigation of the crisis and thereof arising experts' criticism. In the last chapter there is analysis of certain reports and commissions that dealt with Fund's operations and suggested reforms. Experts' opinions (Kenen, Sedlacek, Jonas) of the IMF's functioning and its summary are also part of the chapter.
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Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes under Conditions of Economic Transition
Stejskal, Jan ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Plchová, Božena (referee)
This paper concentrates on the analysis of currency crises in economies undergoing economic transition. The papaer begins with a brief introduction of contemporary exchnage rate regimes, which is followed by an analysis of the history of the World monetary system. The following chapters concentrate on the analysis of the monetary development in selected transitional economies. In case of the the first one, The Czech Republic, the analysis includes the period from the times of the centrally planed economy, through the initial transformation and the currency crisis of 1997 to the present day. In case of the other countries included in this paper, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Icelnad, the analysis concentrates on the current critical development in these economies. Apart from the analysis of the selected currency crises, the objective of this paper is to draw conclusions relevant to the future development of currency policies in the transitional economies.
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The 90s Currency Crises of the 20th Century
Hrušková, Lenka ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
This work is concerned with the currency crises which occurred in the 90s. The first chapter of the work introduces the basic theoretical knowledge about the currency crises which is necessary to understand the issues relevant to currency crises, such as : types of crises, generations of crises, causes of the origin and impacts on the economy as well as inhabitants of the distressed area. Theoretical knowledge is applied to concrete examples of crises: crisis of EMS (1992-1993), crises in SE Asia (1997) and Russia (1998). The third chapter is a case study of the Mexican currency crisis in 1994. This chapter is focused on origin of the crisis in the early 80s, its course in December of 1994, impacts on social and economic sphere and spillover the other economies.
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Currency and financial crises
Kazlovich, Uladzimir ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
This final thesis focuses on issues of currency and financial crises. It observes the main theoretical models of currency crises and their application to the currency crises of the nearest history and evaluates the causes and circumstances which, under certain conditions, lead to the occurrence of crises in the currency field. The thesis deals with the problematics, concerning funtioning of international institutions in the process of maintaining the stability of currency regres worldwide. The work examines the causes of global financial meltdown of 2008 and depicts the condition of U.S. financial markets.
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