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Google Econometrics: An Application to the Czech Republic
Platil, Lukáš ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
This thesis examines the applicability of Google Econometrics - the use of search volume data of particular queries as explanatory variables in time se- ries modeling - in the case of the Czech Republic. We analyze the contribu- tion of Google data by comparing out-of-sample nowcasting performance and in-sample fit with control variables in three related areas: using an auto- regressive model for unemployment, vector autoregression and logit models for GDP and household consumption, and Granger causality test for consum- er confidence. The improvement in quality of unemployment nowcasting is modest but statistically significant; sentiment index based on Google queries shows reciprocal relationship with the official Consumer Confidence Indicator, and it also provides superior nowcasts for household consumption as well as in- sample fit in logit models; its performance in GDP nowcasting is average among control variables. These conclusions proved stable also on an extended dataset. In overall, the results suggest that Google Econometrics is applicable also to the Czech Republic, despite the fact that the internet penetration rate and Google popularity was lower over the analyzed period compared with developed economies where these methods were usually tested. In the future, Google data may be used...
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Reform of the systems of retirement pension in the founder states of European Union
Platil, Lukáš ; Hedbávný, Petr (advisor) ; Vančura, Matěj (referee)
The thesis deals with the pension systems in Germany, France and Italy. Its main subject is a description of the reforms of these systems during past twenty years - the description of the reasons to reform, of the reforms themselves and of the outlook for the future. In addition, the thesis deals with the indexation procedures in these countries and examines the relevance of using the consumer price index for these purposes. The thesis consists of three main sections. The first section briefly describes current pension systems in given countries. The second part describes the reasons leading to the necessity of reforms - increasing financial demands of these systems due to i.a. the demographic trends and the labor market developments. It also lists main components of the reforms during past twenty years, whose main objective was the financial consolidation and the move towards multi-pillar systems. The evaluation of the persistent problems and of the necessity to continue with reforms is also included. The third section describes the options for the pension indexation and the indexation procedures in given countries. It also discusses the relevance of the consumer price index for the measurement of the increase in the pensioners' cost of living - whether this index is a good measure for the...
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Google Econometrics: An Application to the Czech Republic
Platil, Lukáš ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
This thesis examines the applicability of Google Econometrics - the use of search volume data of particular queries as explanatory variables in time se- ries modeling - in the case of the Czech Republic. We analyze the contribu- tion of Google data by comparing out-of-sample nowcasting performance and in-sample fit with control variables in three related areas: using an auto- regressive model for unemployment, vector autoregression and logit models for GDP and household consumption, and Granger causality test for consum- er confidence. The improvement in quality of unemployment nowcasting is modest but statistically significant; sentiment index based on Google queries shows reciprocal relationship with the official Consumer Confidence Indicator, and it also provides superior nowcasts for household consumption as well as in- sample fit in logit models; its performance in GDP nowcasting is average among control variables. In overall, the results suggest that Google Econometrics is applicable also to the Czech Republic, despite the fact that the internet penetration rate and Google popularity was lower over the analyzed period compared with developed economies where these methods were usually tested. In the future, Google data may be used together with other leading and coincident indica- tors to...
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|
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Google Econometrics: An Application to the Czech Republic
Platil, Lukáš ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
This thesis examines the applicability of Google Econometrics - the use of search volume data of particular queries as explanatory variables in time se- ries modeling - in the case of the Czech Republic. We analyze the contribu- tion of Google data by comparing out-of-sample nowcasting performance and in-sample fit with control variables in three related areas: using an auto- regressive model for unemployment, vector autoregression and logit models for GDP and household consumption, and Granger causality test for consum- er confidence. The improvement in quality of unemployment nowcasting is modest but statistically significant; sentiment index based on Google queries shows reciprocal relationship with the official Consumer Confidence Indicator, and it also provides superior nowcasts for household consumption as well as in- sample fit in logit models; its performance in GDP nowcasting is average among control variables. These conclusions proved stable also on an extended dataset. In overall, the results suggest that Google Econometrics is applicable also to the Czech Republic, despite the fact that the internet penetration rate and Google popularity was lower over the analyzed period compared with developed economies where these methods were usually tested. In the future, Google data may be used...
|
|
|
Google Econometrics: An Application to the Czech Republic
Platil, Lukáš ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Červinka, Michal (referee)
This thesis examines the applicability of Google Econometrics - the use of search volume data of particular queries as explanatory variables in time se- ries modeling - in the case of the Czech Republic. We analyze the contribu- tion of Google data by comparing out-of-sample nowcasting performance and in-sample fit with control variables in three related areas: using an auto- regressive model for unemployment, vector autoregression and logit models for GDP and household consumption, and Granger causality test for consum- er confidence. The improvement in quality of unemployment nowcasting is modest but statistically significant; sentiment index based on Google queries shows reciprocal relationship with the official Consumer Confidence Indicator, and it also provides superior nowcasts for household consumption as well as in- sample fit in logit models; its performance in GDP nowcasting is average among control variables. In overall, the results suggest that Google Econometrics is applicable also to the Czech Republic, despite the fact that the internet penetration rate and Google popularity was lower over the analyzed period compared with developed economies where these methods were usually tested. In the future, Google data may be used together with other leading and coincident indica- tors to...
|
|
|
Reform of the systems of retirement pension in the founder states of European Union
Platil, Lukáš ; Hedbávný, Petr (advisor) ; Vančura, Matěj (referee)
The thesis deals with the pension systems in Germany, France and Italy. Its main subject is a description of the reforms of these systems during past twenty years - the description of the reasons to reform, of the reforms themselves and of the outlook for the future. In addition, the thesis deals with the indexation procedures in these countries and examines the relevance of using the consumer price index for these purposes. The thesis consists of three main sections. The first section briefly describes current pension systems in given countries. The second part describes the reasons leading to the necessity of reforms - increasing financial demands of these systems due to i.a. the demographic trends and the labor market developments. It also lists main components of the reforms during past twenty years, whose main objective was the financial consolidation and the move towards multi-pillar systems. The evaluation of the persistent problems and of the necessity to continue with reforms is also included. The third section describes the options for the pension indexation and the indexation procedures in given countries. It also discusses the relevance of the consumer price index for the measurement of the increase in the pensioners' cost of living - whether this index is a good measure for the...
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