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EVALUATION OF CONVERGENCE IN THE EU-EMPHASIS ON THE COMPARISON OF OLD AND NEW MEMBER STATES
Filip, Michal ; Čadil, Jan (advisor) ; Brožka, Michal (referee)
This thesis evaluates the convergence within the European Union, focusing on the old Member States compared to the new ones. The theoretical part deals with the background of convergence and other theories explaining economic growth. The following section assesses the macroeconomic indicators work within the community and an important determinant of economic performance of individual countries, as measured by GDP per capita in purchasing power parity, and the HDI index. The analytical part of the thesis examines the conditional convergence or divergence of each block based on the method Barone Sala i Martin, using regression analysis. This work also examines the coefficient of variation, sigma and beta convergence of the various blocks. Finally, evaluate the level and rate of convergence of the Czech and Slovak Republic at NUTS level 3
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Potential sources of currency and banking crises in emerging markets
Brožka, Michal ; Revenda, Zbyněk (advisor) ; Dvořák, Pavel (referee) ; Žák, Milan (referee)
The thesis examines potential sources of currency crisis, banking crisis and twin crisis in a region of Central Europe, Eastern Europe, South-Eastern Europe and Baltics. The text assumes some basic knowledge of the theories of financial crisis and, thus, ommits some relevant details in the theoretical parts. The thesis aids at fading variables, which could signal vurnerability of a country to a curency, banking and twin crisis. In the second chapter we introduce a financial crisis typology. The text also briefly shows the theoretical and empirical studies of the financial crisis and introduces definitions of currency, banking and twin crisis. In the third chapter we identify the periods of financial crisis in the given region. Then we introduce the explanatory variables. In the fourth chapter we estimate logit model to explain the conditional probability of all the three types of financial crisis. In the fifth chapter we estimate the out-of-sample conditional probability of occurring crisis. In the end we discuss the results and possible recommendation for economic policy or investors. We find that some macroeconomic variables are significant when explaining financial crisis. For all three types of financial crisis these variables were significant: Share of total foreign debt to foreign reserves, interest rate differential, excessive credit expansion (its share to GDP).
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