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Modeling of football matches results and efficient-market hypothesis in sports betting
Augustin, Michael ; Korbel, Václav (advisor) ; Opatrný, Matěj (referee)
01 Abstract Betting on sporting events can be perceived by the general public as a game of chance. In the professional literature, however, betting on football matches is treated in the same way as other financial markets, where in the event of a violation of the theory of efficient markets due to the occurrence of inefficiency, there are opportunities for investors to obtain abnormal returns. The main goal of this work is to create a model capable of predicting the results of football matches on the basis of historical data better than bookmakers are able to do and test the effectiveness of the Czech betting market for football matches of the Czech highest football league. The first part of the thesis contains a more detailed presentation of the theory of efficient markets, a comparison of financial and betting markets and sources of possible inefficiency in betting markets. The second and third parts present data, models and their possible modification to increase the accuracy of estimates. The fourth part describes the results of testing individual models and subsequent simulations of betting strategies. The fifth part contains a conclusion and discussion of the results, including an indication of possible alternatives to follow-up research. The results of simulations of betting strategies confirm...
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The hot hand fallacy
Augustin, Michael ; Korbel, Václav (advisor) ; Šťastná, Lenka (referee)
The "hot hand" effect describes the phenomenon when an athlete makes a considerable in his performance following a series of successes. In the professional literature was the "hot hand" effect considered a fallacy until 2014, when a substantial bias was discovered in the original test method, and a new set of statistics, which controlled for the bias, was introduced. The aim of this work is to test the occurrence of "hot hand" using new methods and to create a performance analysis of both genders. Furthermore it will be proven that the "hot hand" is not a privilege of the best NBA players in the world, but can also occur in semi-professional leagues such as the Czech NBL. The first part of the thesis presents the theory of "hot-hand fallacy" and its important implications in the world of economics and finance. There is also a key review of the "hot hand" literature. In the second and third parts, the biased data and the methodology of the "hot hand" literature are presented, and a new method for controlling this bias is introduced. The results of individual analyses confirm the significant findings of the "hot" and "cold" hand and demonstrate the effectiveness of the new unbiased test. Results discussing the performance test according to gender and the possibilities of further testing are to be...
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