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Prediction of solar activity in the 24th and 25th cycles
Střeštík, Jaroslav ; Mikulecký, M.
In the half of nineties we prepared a prediction of solar activity in cycles No 23 to 26. For this prediction we used the data from 1500-1995 representing 10 significant period lengths with lowest p-values. Using the superposition of these sine waves the data of 1500-1995 were excellently fitted. The prediction for 1996-2040 was constructed as an extrapolatlon of this course. We predicted that cycles No 23 and 24 wtll be longer and the value of sunspot numbers in the maximum will be lower than that in the cycle No 22. These predictions have been so far roughly fulfilled, except only the maximum of the 23rd cycle appeared in reality a little earlier. This is why the descending part of the 23rd cycle observations found itself closely under the 957o tolerance corridor of our prediction. Using now the data since 1500 till 2010 and the same prediction method we prepared anew prediction for the cycles No 24 and 25. Both cycles should be also longer, similarly as the cycle No23 in our first predlction as well as in the reality. Values of sunspot numbers in maxima should be even lower.
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A completion of the catalog of polar aurorae observed in lower latitudes in 1001-1779
Střeštík, Jaroslav
In 1985 Křivský and Pejml published a catalog of polar aurorae observed in 1001-1900 in latitude lower than 55°N. In 1996 Křivský published a supplement to this catalog. This common catalog collects all data concerning the aurorae published earlier and it was in its time the most complete one. In 2004 appeared till now unknown data about polar aurorae observed in Korea in 1001-1779, These dta are, only with a few exceptions, not included in the catalog of Křivský, and vice versa. here the comprehensive catalog is presented, containing the Křivský's data s well as those from Korea. Further some regularities in the occcurrence of aurorae are presented using the comprehensive catalog. The distribution of aurorae in time agrees well with the reconstructed series of sunspot numbers and displays similar periodicities, especially the long-term ones.
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