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National Repository of Grey Literature

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Testing for the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis on the Czech stock market by linear and nonlinear methods Tran, Van Quang ; Musílek, Petr (advisor) ; Arlt, Josef (referee) ; Vošvrda, Miloslav (referee) Hypotéza efektivního trhu postuluje, že ceny akcií na efektivním trhu reflektují všechny informace a jsou dobrými odhady jejich hodnot. Platnost této hypotézy byla testována na řadách denních a hodinových výnosností indexu PX a dalších 3 nejlikvidnějších titulů na českém akciovém trhu lineárními a nelineárními metodami. Ověřovaly se také přítomnost deterministického chaosu v těchto řadách a možnost predikovat výnosnosti různými ekonometrickými modely. Bylo zjištěno, že výnosnosti nejsou nezávislé a lze je predikovat zvolenými modely přesněji než modelem náhodné procházky. Přítomnost chaosu nelze jednoznačně prokázat. Přes tato zjištění se však český akciový trh nechová neefektivně. Detailed record

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