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Index ekonomické svobody, případ České republiky
Shrbený, Filip ; Stroukal, Dominik (advisor) ; Máslo, Lukáš (referee)
We have identified number of possible advices for the Czech Republic to improve its rating for both Heritage Foundation and Fraser Institute Economic Freedom Index, which often leads to top 10 countries in the world. These advices range from cuts in government spending, betterment in judicial system, to the establishing healthier environment for startups and advices to combat corruption. We further noticed some divergence between above mentioned indexes and managed to evaluate those indexes, which showed the simplicity yet usefulness of Heritage EFI and flexibility and sensitivity of the Fraser EFI. Weak sides of the research were noted and ideas for further research were given.
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Empirical analysis of Okun’s law in Iceland
Zajíček, Zdeněk ; Slaný, Martin (advisor) ; Chytilová, Helena (referee)
This thesis deals with empirical analysis of Okuns law in Iceland. Okuns hypothesis of negative relationship between real GDP and the rate of unemployment is being tested on two models, difference and gap, using OLS estimation. Also there are two filtration methods used (Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King) for gap model estimation. The results of all models showed weak relationship of variables, but proved the hypothesis. In the following part, the same procedure is being used on Finlands data, to get comparison of coefficients. Results for Finland showed weaker bond of variables than in Iceland, but the Okuns hypothesis still holds. Last part is focused on finding the sensitivity of rate of unemployment to changes in added value of each economical sector in Iceland using the production approach model. This model gave inconclusive results due to insufficient data available.
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The effect of investment in tertiary education on gross wages in the region Prague
Diessner, Daniel ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Babin, Jan (referee)
The aim of this work is to determine whether and how higher education affects gross wages. The theoretical part focuses on the theory of human capital, especially investment in education. The theory posits that a higher investment in human capital leads to higher yield, higher wages. The validity of this concept will be tested on the group of respondents who entered the labour market at the turn of millennium. Concentration of candidates with tertiary education in this period has risen considerably, which could cause an imbalance in the labour market. The practical part is based on the work of Mincer (1974). I used Mincer Earnings Function as a basis to build regression model. Partial aim is to prove the declining rate of return on investment in tertiary education using Mincer Equation.
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Analysis of the Economic Development of BRICS Countries in 2007–2015
Berka, Kryštof ; Procházka, Pavel (advisor) ; Dyba, Karel (referee)
The aim of the bachelor's thesis is economic development assessment among and within BRICs countries in the context of developed world during 2007-2015. Based on yearly panel data, an analysis for following macroeconomic indicators was carried out: gross domestic product, inflation rate, unemployment rate, current account on the balance of payments, exchange rate. The profound analysis of selected indicators is instrumental in the comparison of member states and is supplemented by the comparison of BRICs and G6. Based on its evidence, I come to a conclusion that the BRICs as a whole succeeded in establishing as a strong global actor. That has been achieved with the help of global financial crisis, but also with regard to the economic policy implemented in 2007-2015. As a result, GDP of BRICs in terms of GDP of G6 achieved stable growth rate leading to its increase by 52 %. Besides providing main findings, outcomes of this thesis enable to identify main weaknesses and strengths of BRICs economies affecting the prospects for continuance of stable economic growth.
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Comparison of Selected Impacts of New Frontier and Great Society Programs in 1960s
Kojan, Christian ; Johnson, Zdenka (advisor) ; Fabianková, Klára (referee)
This thesis deals with New Frontier and Great Society programs and their impact on social policy of the United States in the 1960s. The main goal of the thesis is to compare impact of both programs on selected indicators of standard of living with primary focus on the poverty rate. Thesis describes antipoverty measures of both programs and analyzes their impact on the standard of living. Hypothesis stating that the Great Society was more successful than New Frontier at reducing the poverty rate could not be proven true because of the immense influence of strong economic growth in the 1960s. Thesis suggests that the biggest success of both programs was the positive impact of the Great Society on education.
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Fed's Easy Money Policy during Alan Greenspan's presidency in Board of Governors (1987-2006)
Mašek, František ; Johnson, Zdenka (advisor) ; Tajovský, Ladislav (referee)
The main theme of the work is the Fed's monetary policy during the time, when chairman of the Board of Governors was Alan Greenspan. The greatest attention is aimed at the influence of Fed's expansive monetary policy on the so-called dot-com bubble and later mortgage crisis, which subsequently developer into the financial crisis. Through a thorough analysis of many scientific papers written by known economists and my own analysis and evalution I opine that the effect of expansionary monetary policy on the bubble in technological assets and mortgage crisis is rather minor. Fed subordinated all actions to achieve its monetary policy objectives, so criticism of its conducted monetary policy is essentially a critique of these objectives as such. I consider the emergence of new technologies and the so-called theory of feedback as the main cause of dot-com bubble. In the mortgage crisis and subsequent financial crisis as main determinants I consider reluctance of goverment officials strongly regulate activities of investment banks and other investment companies, moral hazard, failure of rating agencies, and federal support for home ownership coupled with the deregulation of the financial sector.
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The Controlling Study
Herda, Tomáš ; Mikovcová, Hana (advisor) ; Herda, Zdeněk (referee)
The main goal of this Diploma´s Thesis is to make a model for calculation of water and sewer rates for the company Vodovody a kanalizace Náchod, a.s. when sticking to the set criteria both from the side of VaK Náchod, a.s. and law regulations. Based on the theoretical part an analysis of customer sensitivity to the price changes using the data for last 20 years follows. Findings from the first two parts are used in risk analysis in next part. The created model calculates the water and sewer rates based on the information from the company accounting system in the way to generate sufficient financial resources to fulfill the renovation plan of infrastructural property plant and equipment and to transfer given amount to the company funds. In addition, the model monitors whether the legal condition of maximal allowable increase of profit per m3 is met. In the customer sensitivity to the price changes part the price elasticity of demand for water and sewer rates is calculated based on the data from 1995 to 2015. The assumption of inelastic demand is confirmed. Risk analysis part is deals with potential risk regarding the demand and prices. Potential impacts for the most significant risk are quantified. The analysis uses knowledge gained in the first two parts. It was confirmed that potential risks are exiting but do not have any significant impact on the going concern of VaK Náchod, a.s. The created model has been already used for the calculation of prices for the year 2017. Customer sensitivity analysis to the price changes and link to the potential risks is an additional information for VaK Náchod, a.s. which validates that nowadays, there are no significant threats which could affect the demand and water and sewer rates significantly.
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Use of Interest Rate Models for Interest Rate Risk Management in the Czech Financial Market Environment
Cíchová Králová, Dana ; Arlt, Josef (advisor) ; Cipra, Tomáš (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee)
The main goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to interest rate risk modeling in the Czech financial market environment in various situations. Three distinct periods are analyzed. These periods, which are the period before the global financial crisis, period during the financial crisis and in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and calming subsequent debt crisis in the eurozone, are characterized by different evaluation of liquidity and credit risk, different relationship between financial variables and market participants and different degree of market regulations. Within this goal, an application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment is crucial. Use of the BGM model for the purpose of predicting a dynamics of a yield curve is not very common. This is firstly due to the fact that primary use of this model is a valuation of interest rate derivatives while ensuring the absence of arbitrage and secondly its application is relatively difficult. Nevertheless, I apply the BGM model to obtain predictions of the probability distributions of interest rates in the Czech and eurozone market environment, because its complexity, direct modeling of a yield curve based on market rates and especially a possibility of parameter estimation based on current swaptions volatilities quotations may lead to a significant improvement of predictions. This improvement was also confirmed in this thesis. Use of swaptions volatilities market quotations is especially useful in the period of unprecedented mone- tary easing and increased number of central banks and other regulators interventions into financial markets that occur after the financial crisis, because it reflects current market expectations which also include future interventions. As a consequence of underdevelopment of the Czech financial market there are no market quotations of Czech koruna denominated swaptions volatilities. I suggest their approximations based on quotations of euro denominated swaptions volatilities and also using volatilities of koruna and euro forward rates. Use of this approach ensures that predictions of the Czech yield curve dynamics contain current market expectations. To my knowledge, any other author has not presented similar application of the BGM model in the Czech financial market environment. In this thesis I further predict a Czech and Euro area money market yield curve dynamics using the CIR and the GP models as representatives of various types of interest rates models to compare these predictions with BGM predictions. I suggest a comprehensive system of three criteria, based on comparison of predicti- ons with reality, to describe a predictive power of selected models and an appropria- teness of their use in the Czech market environment during different situations in the market. This analysis shows that predictions of the Czech money market yield curve dynamics based on the BGM model demonstrate high predictive power and the best 8 quality in comparison with other models. GP model also produces relatively good qua- lity predictions. Conversely, predictions based on the CIR model as a representative of short rate model family completely failed when describing reality. In a situation when the economy allows negative rates and there is simultaneously a significant likelihood of their implementation, I recommend to obtain predictions of Czech money market yield curve dynamics using GP model which allows existence of negative interest rates. This analysis also contains a statistical test for validating the predictive power of each model and information on other tests. Berkowitz test rejects a hypothesis of accurate predictions for each model. However, this fact is common in real data testing even when using relatively good model. This fact is especially caused by difficult fulfilment of test conditions in real world. To my knowledge, such an analysis of the predictive power of selected interest rate models moreover in the Czech financial market environment has not been published yet. The last goal of this thesis is to suggest an appropriate approach to obtaining pre- dictions of Czech government bonds risk premium dynamics. I define this risk premium as a difference between government bond yields and fixed rate of CZK IRS with the same length. I apply the GP model to describe the dynamics of this indicator of the Czech Republic credit risk. In order to obtain a time series of the risk premium which are necessary for estimation of GP model parameters I firstly estimate yield curves of Czech government bonds using Svensson model for each trading day since 2005. Resulting si- mulations of risk premium show that the GP model predicts the real development of risk premiums of all maturities relatively well. Hence, the proposed approach is suitable for modeling of Czech Republic credit risk based on the use of information extracted from financial markets. I have not registered proposed approach to risk premium modeling moreover in the Czech financial market environment in other publications.
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Application of Monte Carlo simulations in banking
Boruta, Matěj ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Fučík, Vojtěch (referee)
Currently, banking is exposed to huge market risks. One of those risks is occurrence of negative interest rates in the EU. Nowadays, it is important to use sophisticated and modern measurement tools and approaches to measure and manage banking risks. One of those methods is Monte Carlo simulation. This bachelor thesis is aimed at analysis and prediction of 3-month maturity Prague Interest Offer Rate (PRIBOR) for 3, 6 and 12 months with using Monte Carlo simulations. It was found that this method is suitable for prediction market variables with low volatility. If anybody uses this method, it is necessity to have in mind all pitfalls and assumptions, that this method includes, as an adequate random generated number of scenarios, approximation of correct probability distribution, independence of dataset and not least, as far as possible, to focus on factors generating randomness of market variable and not the prices, that express rather consequences of randomness than its cause. Further, the Monte Carlo prediction was compared with prognosis of the Czech Nation Bank and it was found that Monte Carlo prediction is more accurate for short term predictions. 12-month prediction of Monte Carlo simulation discovered also possible occurrence of negative interest rate at 0,05% level of probability in compare to the Czech National Bank prognosis, where was no negative interest rate predicted.
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