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Analysis of Migration and Crime: Evidence from the Czech Republic
Kubů, Vít ; Šoltés, Michal (advisor) ; Pertold-Gebicka, Barbara (referee)
This bachelor's thesis studies the impact of the Ukrainian refugee wave in 2022 on the crime rate in the Czech Republic. There are many articles on the effect of migration on crime, but because migration waves differ in many circumstances (motives for migration, migrants' characteristics), it is necessary to examine each migration wave separately. To identify the effect, the thesis relies on geographical variations in migrants' destinations and on a Bartik shift- share instrument to address potential endogeneity concerns. Our findings show a small positive and statistically significant effect of the migration wave on the number of committed overall crimes, property crimes, violent crimes, and misdemeanors. When transformed to the crimes per capita, a more accurate measure of criminal activity, the effect remains statistically significant only for property and a total number of crimes, but the effect is again close enough to zero. Based on these results, it can be concluded that the Ukrainian refugee wave did not lead to a substantial increase in crime. JEL Classification C21, C26, K14, O15 Keywords migration, crime, refugees, regional distribution Title Analysis of Migration and Crime: Evidence from the Czech Republic Author's e-mail 20020339@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail mich.soltes@gmail.com
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