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The impact of changing exchange rates on Czech companies
Klečka, Michal ; Baxa, Jaromír (advisor) ; Semerák, Vilém (referee)
This thesis analyses impact of exchange rate exposure in Czech Republic on sample of ten Czech companies. Empirical part of thesis builds on Nazl, Kar, Akel (2014) and through market-based approach states significant impact of exchange rate exposure for 40 % of companies. Higher robustness of results was achieved through improvements in the methodology which, contrary to related literature, eliminates endogeneity of market index through instrumental variable. Surprisingly, the correlations between exchange rates and stocks of Czech companies are positive. An alternative model considering ROA of individual companies as dependent variable was used to confirm these results. The resulting impact of exchange rate exposure of alternative model is opposite. This inconsistency of the results of both models is confusing. The sudden change in exchange rate policy of the Czech National Bank in November 2013 did not affect the sensitivity of the relationship between exchange rates and stocks. The reaction of stock market in November 2013 indicates that policy change made by CNB was not entirely expected. Contrary to the related literature, higher data aggregation decreases the significance of the exchange rate exposure, signifying higher ability of Czech companies to reduce exchange rate risk in longer...
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The exchange rate system and the exchange rate development of the Kazakh tenge
Pak, Irina ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Durčáková, Jaroslava (referee)
In my bachelor thesis we consider the exchange rate system in Kazakhstan and mainly deal with the basic historical stages of the exchange rate development. In this paper we make balance of payments analysis and empirical analysis of the exchange rate development in the country during 1993 - 2015. Our analysis describes the dependence of the nominal effective and the bilateral exchange rates KZT/USD on the balance of payments, the inflation rate, the gross domestic product and oil price. Empirical analysis, based on correlation and regression analysis, confirms our theoretical hypotheses. Because exchange rate depends on oil price development, tenge can be included among so-called commodity currencies. Also we confirm the expected relationships between the balance of payments, domestic inflation, gross domestic product and the exchange rate. In the last part of my work, we describe the influence of the exchange rate development on the national economy. In this thesis, we take into consideration the main goals of the central bank, current issues and its actions in order to prevent the occurrence of new economic crises.
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