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National Repository of Grey Literature 2 records found  Search took 0.00 seconds. 
Explanatory power of inflation forecasts and their effect on the monetary policy of inflation targeting
 Frýbová, Kateřina ; Pfeifer, Lukáš (advisor) ; Řežábek, Pavel (referee)
The goal of this work is to prove poor explanatory power of inflation forecasts, which monetary policy regime of inflation targeting depends on. Actual inflation is significantly different from its forecast especially during unstable periods of economic cycle. The paper compares inflation forecasts and actual inflation in the Czech Republic, Switzerland, the United States and Great Britain from 1999 to 2011. Central banks use similar inflation targets and monetary policy regime in selected countries, however there are significant differences among them. The results for all the countries are almost identical despite these local specifics. The explanatory power (especially conditional forecasts) was found to be minimal. This hypothesis is proved by the regression analysis of actual inflation and inflation forecasts.
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Inflation targeting as a monetary policy in the world and Czech Republic: Appraisal of quality of the unconditional forecasts of CNB
 Pivoluska, Jakub ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Brůna, Karel (referee)
The aim of the paper is a research of monetary policy based on the concept of inflation targeting in countries including Czech Republic. It systematically monitors the evolution in thinking of policy makers, which led into definition of price stability as the final goal of the monetary policy. It contains a description of transformation of transmission mechanisms in 20th century concluding to inflation targeting mechanisms. The paper defines the main theoretical elements of inflation targeting, surveying some special features of implementation in Czech Republic. The main focus of the paper is assessment of unconditional inflation forecast regularly released by the Czech National Bank. The naive forecast founded on previously known inflation is considered as referential group opposing the CNB forecast. The main conclusion from the analysis is that the CNB has been more successful in long term inflation forecasting than in forecasting of short term changes in inflation dynamics. The analysis did not identify statistically significant deviation of the forecast. This fact was enabled by short term of considerable overshooting of the forecast in 2008. At the same time I have come to conclusion that the CNB forecast is significantly more accurate than naive forecast and that the CNB forecast has an indisputable positive influence on the shape of inflation expectations in the economy.
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