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Estimating market probabilities of future interest rate changes
Hlušek, Martin
The goal of this paper is to estimate the market consensus forecast of future monetary policy development and to quantify the priced-in probability of interest rate changes for different future time horizons. The proposed model uses the current spot money market yield curve and available money market derivative instruments (forward rate agreements, FRAs) and estimates the market probability of interest rate changes up to a 12-month horizon.
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Selected questions of monetary policy in the Czech Republic
Jonáš, Jiří
This study deals with some issues of monetary policy in the period before the monetary shock after shock in connection with the entry into the European Monetary Union. There are discussed the causes of external imbalances, problems related to the election of a new monetary policy framework after leaving the fixed exchange rate, with the entry into the European Union.
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Evaluation of the Performance of CNB's Inflation Targets in 1998-2007
Česká národní banka
Yearbook was issued on the occasion of the tenth anniversary of the introduction of inflation targeting. Proceedings evaluates looting inflation targets and the factors that has caused inflation deviations from targets in various stages of inflation targeting. Conference contributions are extended and opposed by three renowned experts of czech monetary policy.
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The central banks' non-standard monetary policy: quantitative easing
Čáp, Daniel ; Koderová, Jitka (advisor) ; Osička, Štěpán (referee)
The thesis deals with non-standard monetary policies of three central banks throughout the global financial crisis. The reason for using non-standard measures was also liquidity trap when monetary policy becomes ineffective. An important milestone was collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008. The central banks carried out some non-standard measures before the collapse such as the emergence of new or expanding existing facilities. However, after the collapse there was panic at the financial and capital markets and market interest rate spreads rose. Central banks were forced to respond to expanding its balance sheet and reducing the monetary policy rate to zero. The main reason for increasing total assets was securities purchases by central banks. The measure, which is expanding the balance sheet is called quantitative easing. In the thesis I try to describe and compare the non-standard measures (with a focus on quantitative easing) taken by the three central banks (Bank of England, the Fed and the ECB) and answer the question whether the measures are effective and whether they can replace the standard monetary policy.
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