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Determination of the functional volumes of the reservoir considering input data uncertainties
Paseka, Stanislav ; Doležal, Petr (referee) ; Szolgay,, Ján (referee) ; Marton, Daniel (advisor)
Damaging changes and interventions in the water cycle in our landscape caused mainly in the last century together with uncertainties from climate change are the cause of more frequent occurrences of hydrological extremes. In Hydrology, the most urgent problem is that the values of the long-term mean flows are decreasing in rivers as well as the yield of groundwater sources, but on the other hand, we cannot forget to the problem of extreme floods. In these consequences developing methods and tools to uncertainty analysis of the reservoir yield and of the reservoir flood protection is very important, useful and desired. The main aim was to determine the functional volumes of the reservoir considering input data measurement uncertainties and to quantify them and was explained how uncertainty took into account in results. The active storage capacity was determined from the historical series of monthly flows that were affected by uncertainties, next were applied on water evaporation, seepage losses of the dam and morphological volume-area curves. The simulation-optimization reservoir model was developed and temporal reliability as reservoir yield performance measures was applied. This model will extend the existing UNCE_RESERVOIR software. The flood capacity was determined from random flood wave variations were obtained by repeatedly generating uncertainty on the flood hydrograph. Software was developed based on the modified Klemes method, which was able to transform flood waves. The measurement uncertainties of data inputs were created using Monte Carlo method in both softwares. By connecting two softwares, the functional volumes of the reservoir under conditions of measurement uncertainties were complexly determined. The case study was applied to the real water reservoir, in the Morava River Basin. The result will be whether the dam is resistant to the current conditions, or the optimal design of the functional volumes of reservoir under conditions uncertainties.
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Determination of the functional volumes of the reservoir considering input data uncertainties
Paseka, Stanislav ; Doležal, Petr (referee) ; Szolgay,, Ján (referee) ; Marton, Daniel (advisor)
Damaging changes and interventions in the water cycle in our landscape caused mainly in the last century together with uncertainties from climate change are the cause of more frequent occurrences of hydrological extremes. In Hydrology, the most urgent problem is that the values of the long-term mean flows are decreasing in rivers as well as the yield of groundwater sources, but on the other hand, we cannot forget to the problem of extreme floods. In these consequences developing methods and tools to uncertainty analysis of the reservoir yield and of the reservoir flood protection is very important, useful and desired. The main aim was to determine the functional volumes of the reservoir considering input data measurement uncertainties and to quantify them and was explained how uncertainty took into account in results. The active storage capacity was determined from the historical series of monthly flows that were affected by uncertainties, next were applied on water evaporation, seepage losses of the dam and morphological volume-area curves. The simulation-optimization reservoir model was developed and temporal reliability as reservoir yield performance measures was applied. This model will extend the existing UNCE_RESERVOIR software. The flood capacity was determined from random flood wave variations were obtained by repeatedly generating uncertainty on the flood hydrograph. Software was developed based on the modified Klemes method, which was able to transform flood waves. The measurement uncertainties of data inputs were created using Monte Carlo method in both softwares. By connecting two softwares, the functional volumes of the reservoir under conditions of measurement uncertainties were complexly determined. The case study was applied to the real water reservoir, in the Morava River Basin. The result will be whether the dam is resistant to the current conditions, or the optimal design of the functional volumes of reservoir under conditions uncertainties.
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