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Banking and Currency Crises: Differential Diagnostics for Developed Countries
Joy, Mark ; Rusnák, Marek ; Šmídková, Kateřina ; Vašíček, Bořek
We identify a set of “rules of thumb” that characterise economic, financial and structural conditions preceding the onset of banking and currency crises in 36 advanced economies over 1970–2010. We use the Classification and Regression Tree methodology (CART) and its Random Forest (RF) extension, which permits the detection of key variables driving binary crisis outcomes, allows for interactions among key variables and determines critical tipping points. We distinguish between basic country conditions, country structural characteristics and international developments. We find that crises are more varied than they are similar. For banking crises we find that low net interest rate spreads in the banking sector and a shallow or inverted yield curve are their most important forerunners in the short term, whereas in the longer term it is high house price inflation. For currency crises, high domestic short-term rates coupled with overvalued exchange rates are the most powerful short-term predictors. We find that both country structural characteristics and international developments are relevant banking crisis predictors. Currency crises, however, seem to be driven more by country idiosyncratic, short-term developments. We find that some variables, such as the domestic credit gap, provide important unconditional signals, but it is difficult to use them as conditional signals and, more importantly, to find relevant threshold values.
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Currency and financial crises at the end of 20th century
Poláčková, Vitalie ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
This thesis deals with the issue of currency and financial crises, which came at the end of the 20th century. The first part gives attention to the theoretical definition of the currency crises. In the first chapter are defined the types of crises. The second chapter is focused on the causes and results of currency crises and the activity of IMF during it. The third chapter deals with the models of currency crises. The second half is focused on a characterization of chosen concrete cases of currency crises in the 90's. Specifically, their origination and impact on the affected countries.
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Analysis of Exchange Rate Regimes under Conditions of Economic Transition
Stejskal, Jan ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Plchová, Božena (referee)
This paper concentrates on the analysis of currency crises in economies undergoing economic transition. The papaer begins with a brief introduction of contemporary exchnage rate regimes, which is followed by an analysis of the history of the World monetary system. The following chapters concentrate on the analysis of the monetary development in selected transitional economies. In case of the the first one, The Czech Republic, the analysis includes the period from the times of the centrally planed economy, through the initial transformation and the currency crisis of 1997 to the present day. In case of the other countries included in this paper, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Icelnad, the analysis concentrates on the current critical development in these economies. Apart from the analysis of the selected currency crises, the objective of this paper is to draw conclusions relevant to the future development of currency policies in the transitional economies.
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The 90s Currency Crises of the 20th Century
Hrušková, Lenka ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
This work is concerned with the currency crises which occurred in the 90s. The first chapter of the work introduces the basic theoretical knowledge about the currency crises which is necessary to understand the issues relevant to currency crises, such as : types of crises, generations of crises, causes of the origin and impacts on the economy as well as inhabitants of the distressed area. Theoretical knowledge is applied to concrete examples of crises: crisis of EMS (1992-1993), crises in SE Asia (1997) and Russia (1998). The third chapter is a case study of the Mexican currency crisis in 1994. This chapter is focused on origin of the crisis in the early 80s, its course in December of 1994, impacts on social and economic sphere and spillover the other economies.
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Currency and financial crises
Kazlovich, Uladzimir ; Taušer, Josef (advisor) ; Černá, Iveta (referee)
This final thesis focuses on issues of currency and financial crises. It observes the main theoretical models of currency crises and their application to the currency crises of the nearest history and evaluates the causes and circumstances which, under certain conditions, lead to the occurrence of crises in the currency field. The thesis deals with the problematics, concerning funtioning of international institutions in the process of maintaining the stability of currency regres worldwide. The work examines the causes of global financial meltdown of 2008 and depicts the condition of U.S. financial markets.
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