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Legalizace výnosu z trestné činnosti- mikroekonomická a makroekonomická perspektiva
Danková, Diana ; Šíma, Ondřej (advisor) ; Kováč, Michal (referee)
The primary objective of this diploma thesis is to comprehensively present the issue of money laundering not only on a macro level but also in terms of commercial bank and its microeconomic response to it. The main contribution of this diploma thesis is to identify the global indicators, which should be considered when drafting strategies in the fight against the legalization of proceeds from crimes. This diploma thesis addresses the changes caused by current globalization and highlights the dangerous effects it has on evolution of this consequent criminal activity together with evaluation of its potential in the future. Due to the tense situation in Europe caused by the series of terrorist attacks, part of the work is dedicated to the explanation of the relationship between terrorist financing and money laundering.
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Leading, coincident and lagging indicators in the U.S. business cycles
Bon, Andrew ; Janíčko, Martin (advisor) ; Prokop, Jaromír (referee)
This thesis focuses mainly on analysing leading indicators of business cycles within the USA since the 1960s until the present, while providing theoretical background to the coincident and lagging indicators. United States is a country with incredibly rich amounts of data, which enable a thorough analysis of individual variables. First part is dedicated to different theories that explain the behaviour of cyclical fluctuations, such as a monetarist, Keynesian, or real business cycle approaches are included, followed by defining individual cyclical indicators with the provision of examples. Second part consists of actual analysis starting with dating post-war cycles and real GDP development. Three leading indicators are then analysed and evaluated, specifically the amounts of building permits issued, spread between a 10-year Treasury constant maturity bill and Federal funds rate and finally the unemployment insurance claims. Evaluation is based on individual success rates obtained from historical data. The third and final chapter attempts to forecast the economic outlook of the current business cycle using obtained data from the previous chapter. Conclusion provides an overall summary of individual parts along with pointing out the main findings.
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Application of Problems of Macroeconomic Disequilibrium: Outline of Run of Business Cycle in the Economy of Germany in the Years 1990 - 2006
Kloudová, Dana ; Janíčko, Martin (advisor) ; Hudík, Marek (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with the business cycle phenoma. First part is theoretical and is focused on characteristics of business cycles, especially on investigating causes of economic fluctuations (demand and supply shocks), types, phases, and history of business cycles. Then, monitoring and analysis of business cycle follow, when the indicators of internal and external disequilibrium is to analysed. From indicators of the internal disequilibrium a very special focus is put on inflation rate, difference between real output and potential output (output gap), and unemployment rate. External disequilibrium is analysed through the current account balance as a percentage of GDP. Next chapter of the theoretical part is dedicated to aggregate demand and its components, aggregate supply and macroeconomic (dis)equilibrium. In this work the attention is paid to both fiscal and monetary policy, which can substantially influence length and behaviour of a business cycle. Second part is analytical and addresses business cycle in the economy of Germany since its reunification (1990) to 2006. This time period is separated into several parts. Every part is specific and will be analysed separately. Selected macroeconomic indicators are also to analysed by econometric models, and then their influence on the behaviour of the business cycle is evaluated. In conclusion, a broad prospect of the future business cycle development is outlined.
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