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Teorie prospektu: Základní principy a pojmy
Fojtů, Kateřina
Klasická a neoklasická ekonomická teorie považuje člověka za racionální osobu, která se rozhoduje logicky a maximalizuje svůj užitek. Co když tomu tak není? Lidé, kteří se rozhodují v reálném světě, nikdy nebudou dokonale informováni o produktu či službě, kterou si chtějí koupit. V reálném světě není člověk racionální. Je ovlivněn svými emocemi, náladami, tím, jak mu byla informace podána. Vlivů, které člověka ovlivňují, je tedy mnoho. A rozhodně ani jeden z nich nevede k tomu, že by člověk maximalizoval svůj užitek na základě racionálních rozhodnutí. Naopak lidé se snaží nějakým způsobem eliminovat riziko, které podstupují. Každé rozhodnutí, které učiníme, s sebou nese jisté riziko. Toto riziko se snažíme eliminovat a to především informacemi, které se snažíme před učiněním rozhodnutí nashromáždit. Rozhodovací proces se vždy odvíjí od nashromážděných informací a způsobem prezentace těchto informací, ať už se rozhodujeme o tom, zda pojedeme na dovolenou, nebo který notebook si koupíme. Jedná z takovýchto teorií zabývající se rozhodováním v podmínkách rizika a nejistoty je teorie prospektu. Autory této teorie jsou Amos Tversky a Daniel Kahneman, kteří poprvé představili teorii prospektu v článku Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk (1979). Cílem tohoto článku je popsat seznámit čtenáře se základními principy této teorie a základními pojmy, které jsou s ní spojeny.
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How much are we afraid of losing? Analysis of risk aversion.
Vokounová, Tereza ; Dlouhá, Zuzana (advisor) ; Čermáková, Klára (referee)
The whole thesis is focused on exploring how individuals make decisions under conditions of risk and uncertainty. The first section describes several economic theories, regarding explanation of human actions. The study points to the fact that the method of maximization expected utility cannot explain some examples of human decisions (eg. Allais paradoxes or the four-fold pattern) and to explain these effects, it is preferable to use prospect theory or cumulative prospect theory. In the second section, also based on results from the survey, I investigate the actual risk aversion in different situations (willingness to take risk in general, car driving, financial matters, sport and leisure, career and health) based on various factors. Statistically significant factor in all situations is gender when women show greater risk aversion in comparison to men. Age is a significant factor only in the willingness to take risk in general and in car driving. While in the willingness to take risks in general is a positive relationship between age and risk aversion, in car driving the relation is exactly the opposite. Level of education influences risk aversion in three situations - at risk in general (risk aversion increases with higher education), sport (risk aversion increases with higher education) and health issues (risk aversion decreases with higher education). In the health issues are people studying or working in the construction industry more risk-averse compared to people studying or working in the field of economics/finance. In car driving are individuals studying or working in the field of law more risk-averse than students or workers in the field of economics/finance. Another important factor is whether a person is working in public or private sector. In car driving, financial matters, career and health are people working in public sector more risk-averse compared to students and to people working in the private sector. Willingness to take risk in general is influenced by average monthly income - with a rising average monthly income is also growing willingness to take risks (decreasing risk aversion). Willingness to take risk in general, financial matters and career is higher for people who invest. Sportsmen/women are generally more willing to take risk in car driving, sport and career. Entrepreneurs are more willing to risk in career.
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Behavioral Finance - Prospect Theory and impact of type of college education on the four-fold pattern
Karamonová, Petra ; Křížek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Havlíček, David (referee)
Thesis deals with Prospect Theory and with its findings when making decisions under risk which is called four-fold pattern. In theoretical part is shortly mentioned the field of Behavioral finance and further described original Prospect Theory and also its modified version called Cumulative Prospect Theory. The main goal of the practical part is to confirm on the basis of questionnaire between different kinds of college graduates the four-fold pattern, identify between 3 segments differences and make the final conclusion whether the type of college education has an impact on four-fold pattern.
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