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Granular loss models in reserving
Bílková, Kristýna ; Pešta, Michal (advisor) ; Mazurová, Lucie (referee)
Claims reserving methods usually use data aggregated into development triangles, therefore a lot of information that insurance companies possess remains unused. This thesis shows a triangle-free approach using granular information from a claim by claim database. A statistical model for claims development which can further be used for estimation of reserves is built. The statistical model consists of a counting process that drives claims occurrence, distribution of reporting delay and distribution of claims severity. Several suitable distributions are presented, as well as methods for obtaining their parameters from data. Theoretical apparatus is used for real data. The thesis also pursues comparison of the IBNR reserve estimation using the triangle free approach and distribution free Chain ladder method for real data as well as for simulated data sets. For the data used in this thesis the complexity and data requirements of the triangle free approach are in favor of more preciseness and versatility. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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Micro-level stochastic claims reserving
Rathouský, Marek ; Pešta, Michal (advisor) ; Vitali, Sebastiano (referee)
This thesis covers, in detail, theoretical background of micro-level stochastic model, which includes definition and properties of non-homogeneous Poisson process. This the- ory is then applied to real data generated by MTPL portfolio. Estimates of provisions under micro-level stochastic model are calculated using ordinary Monte Carlo simula- tion method. Results obtained from micro-level stochastic model are compared to Mack Chain-ladder estimates. 1
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Loss reserving for individual claim-by-claim data
Bednárik, Vojtěch ; Pešta, Michal (advisor)
This thesis covers stochastic claims reserving in non-life insurance based on individual claims developments. Summarized theoretical methods are applied on data from Czech Insurers' Bureau created for educational purposes. The problem of estimation is divided into four parts: occurence process generating claims, delay of notification, times between events and payments. Each part is estimated separately based on maximum likelihood theory and final estimates allow us to obtain an estimate of future liabilities distribution. The results are very promising and we believe this method is worth of a further research. Contribution of this work is more rigorous theoretical part and application on data from the Czech market with some new ideas in practical part and simulation. 1
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Loss reserving for individual claim-by-claim data
Bednárik, Vojtěch ; Pešta, Michal (advisor) ; Hurt, Jan (referee)
This thesis covers stochastic claims reserving in non-life insurance based on individual claims developments. Summarized theoretical methods are applied on data from Czech Insurers' Bureau for educational purposes. The problem of estimation is divided into four parts: oc- curence process generating claims, delay of notification, times between events and payments. Each part is estimated separately based on maximum likelihood theory and final estimates allow us to obtain an estimate of future liabilities distribution. The results are very promis- ing and we believe this method is worth of a further research. Contribution of this work is more rigorous theoretical part and application on data from the Czech market with some new ideas in practical part and simulation. 1
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Granular loss models in reserving
Bílková, Kristýna ; Pešta, Michal (advisor) ; Mazurová, Lucie (referee)
Claims reserving methods usually use data aggregated into development triangles, therefore a lot of information that insurance companies possess remains unused. This thesis shows a triangle-free approach using granular information from a claim by claim database. A statistical model for claims development which can further be used for estimation of reserves is built. The statistical model consists of a counting process that drives claims occurrence, distribution of reporting delay and distribution of claims severity. Several suitable distributions are presented, as well as methods for obtaining their parameters from data. Theoretical apparatus is used for real data. The thesis also pursues comparison of the IBNR reserve estimation using the triangle free approach and distribution free Chain ladder method for real data as well as for simulated data sets. For the data used in this thesis the complexity and data requirements of the triangle free approach are in favor of more preciseness and versatility. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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