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Predicting Czech Economic Activity Using Toll Data
Učňová, Jana ; Kocourek, David (advisor) ; Šestořád, Tomáš (referee)
Many analysts coincide that transportation is closely linked to economic activity. How- ever, data containing information about transportation have not been part of their re- search for a long time. Introduction of electronic toll collection systems in recent years led to a new source of data containing information about truck transport. This thesis aims to examine the ability of seasonally adjusted toll data to predict Czech economic activity. Economic activity is represented by four variables - real GDP, nominal GDP, in- dustrial production index and the volume of foreign trade. Seven models - five dynamic models, ARIMA model, and regression with ARIMA error - are constructed for each dependent variable. These models are then compared using both Akaike and Bayesian information criterion and the most appropriate model for each dependent variable is selected. It was concluded that both real GDP and industrial production index can be predicted using toll data. Both the number of kilometers travelled, and the amount of toll collected seems to be good predictors of economic activity. Particularly, data con- taining information about toll collected might be more beneficial because the amount of toll collected in given quarter can even predict economic activity in the next quarter. 1
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Innovation Aspects of the Electronic Toll System in the Czech Republic
Šindelářová, Jana ; Basl, Josef (advisor) ; Krsek, Libor (referee)
This thesis deals with the innovation of information system (IS) as a decision problem. The main objective of this thesis is the construction and the application of a method to select an optimal innovation variant of IS in an organisation of any scale. The designed method is based on the conception of the innovation of IS in the methodology "Multidimensional Management and Development of Information System (MMDIS)". The proposed selection method (Method of Innovation Modules based on MMDIS - MIM) is intended to serve mainly for decision-making on a strategic level. The IS structure is mapped in accordance with the MMDIS methodology. Innovation aspects are derived from two approaches: innovation aspects based on the MMDIS principles ("module of principles" - e.g. integration, flexibility, standardisation, measurability) and innovation aspects based on the IS dimensions defined in MMDIS methodology ("module of dimensions" - e.g. software, hardware, processes and functions, finances). The proposal method enforces a systematic approach to evaluation of the innovation variants, ensuring that the innovation aspects (the principles and the dimensions) are aligned with key requirements. As an example, this method is applied to an existing electronic toll system operated in the Czech Republic. Basic innovation variants of the electronic toll system are described - the microwave, the satellite and the hybrid toll system. Case studies from the Czech Republic, Austria and Germany are used for support the proposed innovation variants, as well as evaluation of variants. The principles and the dimensions form a framework for description and evaluation of the telematics, of the electronic toll and of the innovation variants of the electronic toll. The variants are compared within the framework of refined principles and dimensions, the optimal variant is proposed. The used evaluation parameters are a result of an analysis of published studies and specific toll system technical designs. The Method of Innovation Modules was constructed on the basis of MMDIS methodology and demonstrated by application in an example scenario (electronic toll). The key result of the proposed method is the comprehensive structured map of available system innovation opportunities.
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