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Credit Derivatives Market during Recent Financial Crisis
Buzková, Petra ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Tripe, David (referee) ; Witzany, Jiří (referee) ; Dědek, Oldřich (referee)
The dissertation is composed of three empirical research papers analyzing the development on credit derivatives markets in recent years characterized by the global financial crisis in 2007- 2009 and subsequent European sovereign debt crisis. The basic motivation of the thesis is to contribute to the clarification of the turbulent development on credit derivatives markets. The first paper addresses main flaws of a collateralized debt obligation (CDO) market during the global financial crisis. The second paper examines the impact of the Greek debt crisis on sovereign credit default swap (CDS) reliability. The third paper analyzes whether a resulting change in CDS terms restored confidence in CDS contracts. An introductory chapter presents a common framework for the three papers. In the first paper, we examine valuation of a Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) in 2007- 2009. One Factor Gaussian Copula Model is presented and five hypotheses regarding CDO sensitivity to entry parameters are analyzed. Four main deficiencies of the CDO market are then articulated: i) an insufficient analysis of underlying assets by both investors and rating agencies; ii) investment decisions arising from the valuation model based on expected cash-flows and neglecting other factors such as mark-to-market losses; iii)...
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Systemic Risk in the European Financial and Energy Sector: Dynamic Factor Copula Approach
Nevrla, Matěj ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Buzková, Petra (referee)
In the thesis we perform analysis of systemic risk in the financial and energy sector in Europe. As the econometric tool for estimating dependencies across the subjects we employ factor copula model with GAS dynamics of Oh & Patton (2013b). We apply this model to daily CDS spreads. Based on the estimated results we perform Monte Carlo simulations in order to obtain future values of CDS spreads and measure probability of systemic events. We conclude that substantially higher systemic risk is present within the financial sector. We also find that the most systemic companies from both sectors come from Spain. JEL Classification C53, C55, C58, G17 Keywords Credit Default Swap, Energy Sector, Factor Copula, Financial Sector, Generalized Autore- gressive Score Model, Systemic Risk Author's e-mail matej.nevrla@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail barunik@fsv.cuni.cz
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Credit rating agencies and their impact on the bond markets of EU countries
Havlíček, Tomáš ; Horváth, Roman (advisor) ; Jánský, Ivo (referee)
This thesis analyses long and short-term perception of announcements issued by leading credit rating agencies (Fitch, Moody's and S&P) in sovereign bond markets. Using three empirical approaches we assess the nature of impact of CRAs on 10Y sovereign bond yields and 5Y CDS of 24 countries of EU between 2002 and 2012. We find significant response of sovereign bond yield and CDS spreads to downgrades and negative outlooks. Furthermore there is evidence of anticipative power of sovereign bond markets in foreseeing negative events implying CRAs lag the market. The spillover effect from credit rating announcements has been revealed between both EMU and non-EMU parts of EU implying the financial integration is not limited only to countries with common currency. Well performing economies outside EMU are resistant to contagion. JEL Classification C23, F34, G10, G14, G15 Keywords credit rating; credit default swap; rating agency; sovereign bond; EU Author's e-mail tomhav@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail roman.horvath@gmail.com
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Reduced-form Approach to LGD Modeling
Hlavatá, Ivana ; Seidler, Jakub (advisor) ; Šopov, Boril (referee)
The rigorous thesis deals with the advanced methods for estimating credit risk parameters from market prices: probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD). Precise evaluation of these parameters is important not only for banks to calculate their regulatory capital but also for investors to price risky bonds and credit derivatives. We develop two forward looking reduced-form analytical methods for calculation of PD and LGD of corporate defaultable bonds based on their quoted market prices, prices of equivalent risk-free bonds and quoted senior and subordinated credit default swap spreads of the issuer of these bonds. This is reversed to most of the studies on credit risk modeling, as aim is not to price instruments based on estimated credit risk parameters, but to calculate these parameters based on the available market quotes. Furthermore, compared to other studies, the LGD parameter is assumed to be endogenous and we provide the method for its simultaneous calculation with the probability of default. Finally, using developed methods, we estimate implied PD and LGD for nine European banks assuming that the risk is priced correctly by other investors and the markets are efficient. JEL Classification: C02, C63, G13, G33 Keywords: credit risk, loss given default, probability of default,...
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Informatory value of official rating in context of market innovations
Hrouzek, Miroslav ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Brada, Jaroslav (referee)
The subject of this thesis is recent development of credit evaluation industry and analysis of rating agency`s behaviour in relation to official rating changes. In the first chapter, fundamental limitations of analytical ratings are defined. Stating both advantages and disadvantages arising mainly from market defficiency, the second one introduces credit default swap as an alternative manner for credit risk measurement. Next part summarizes existing academic activity in context of rating informatory value, highlighting abnormal and asymmetric market reactions. Based on Moodys` approach, the fouth chapter provides reader with the concept of market implied ratings that are consequently used to analyse relation between CDS-IR and official ratings. The last subchapters investigate sensitivity ratio of how rating gap level determines prospective response of rating agency.
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Development of credit derivatives trading
Kunovjánek, Robert ; Witzany, Jiří (advisor) ; Málek, Jiří (referee)
The bachelor thesis is focused on the structure and development of credit derivatives market. The thesis provides a basic summary for insight into credit derivatives market. The first part deals with general specifications of derivatives, their structure, functions and relevant categorization. The main chapter is dedicated to the most frequently used variants of credit derivatives, namely, credit default swap, total return swap and credit-linked note. Predominantly traded credit default swap indices and basic valuation of a credit risk are described in the second and third parts. The last part analyses the trend of clearing and standardization of contracts through a centralized counterparty on over-the-counter markets and summarizes the current credit derivatives market development. The main goal is to analyze the trend and regulation of contracts settlements through centralized counterparty and examine the current credit derivatives market activity.
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The sovereign debt crisis in the Euro area
Pilař, Tomáš ; Dvořák, Pavel (advisor) ; Helísek, Mojmír (referee) ; Žák, Milan (referee) ; Kubátová, Květa (referee)
This dissertation thesis focuses on complex analysis of the problem, which is the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro area. The aim of this paper is to provide a complex overview and analysis of the current sovereign debt crisis, from the theoretical definition of the term, through an analysis of the causes and consequences of this crisis to outline the economic policy response to it. The text is divided into two parts. The first part deals with theoretical problem solving. In the second part is analyzed and described course of sovereign debt crisis. This section also analyzes in detail causes and consequences of the sovereign debt crisis in certain countries. This section is completed by an analysis of economic policy response to the sovereign debt crisis and an expert estimate of the future development of public debt countries analyzed.
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The analysis of the benefits of the European Rating Agency
Vaňková, Jana ; Titze, Miroslav (advisor) ; Šimíček, Petr (referee)
The main aim of this diploma thesis is to analyze benefits of the establishment of the European Rating Agency. The partial aim is to determine the influence of the credit ratings on economics situation in selected European countries and to analyze problems of current credit rating industry. A slight impact of the credit ratings on the observed countries has been found by way of the analysis of evolution of the yields of ten-year government bonds and the prices of CDS contracts on these bonds. Non-perfect competition, weak transparency of the rating process and conflict of interest are considered as the most important problems of the credit rating agencies. By way of the analysis of the ability of the European Rating Agency to remove or at least to partially eliminate discussed problems has been found that the European Rating Agency would not be able to remove all problems of the credit rating industry. The uncertainty about the independence of the European Rating Agency is the biggest weakness of this agency. For this reason, we can't expect that the European Rating Agency would be able to make the credit rating process more efficient and improve the situation in the credit rating industry.
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Analysis of CDS on sovereign bonds of peripheral countries of eurozone
Tesařová, Veronika ; Dvořák, Petr (advisor) ; Prokop, Martin (referee)
This thesis is about the credit default swap market and its development from the moment of its origin to the present. The focus is on the peripheral countries of eurozone, especially on Greece. The first part of the thesis is about the characteristics of CDS contracts, settlement of contracts and the relationship between CDS and insurance contracts. The other parts of the thesis are about the crisis in Greece, the CDS on sovereign greek bonds and the credit event. The last part of the thesis is about CDS on other sovereign bonds of peripheral countries in eurozone which are Spain, Italy and Portugal.
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