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Fractional decision making models in networks
Malárik, Peter ; Nechvátal, Luděk (referee) ; Kisela, Tomáš (advisor)
This thesis deals with the problem of modelling specific types of complex systems using networks, especially those that indicate the possible occurrence of so-called fractional dynamics. Two variants of the Voter Model, which is one of the basic decision models describing the propagation of opinions in a social setting, are presented. By enriching the dynamics of the model with history dependence and by setting the system over different kinds of networks, we observe qualitative changes in behavior that are typical in the presence of the aforementioned fractional dynamics. We look at this issue from the point of view of numerous model simulations, which results are graphically presented, discussed and compared with known theory.
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Methodological Optimization of the Median Research Agency's Likely Voter Model Based on Findings from Czech Household Panel Study
Kunc, Michal ; Buchtík, Martin (advisor) ; Soukup, Petr (referee)
The aim of this graduate thesis is proposing an optimization of the likely voter model parameter values utilized by Median (research agency) based on secondary analysis of data from the third wave and post-election follow-up of the Czech Household Panel Study 2017 and the Median omnibus survey. The theoretical chapter presents selected aspects of the analyzed likely voter model parameters. Secondary data analysis confirms hypotheses regarding the relationships of: 1) voter turnout, prior voting behavior and the intent to vote, 2) pre-election voting preferences and actual voting behavior, 3) reported prior voting behavior and time elapsed since the prior election. Hypotheses are confirmed, and analysis results are utilized in construction of an optimized likely voter model. This model's results are then compared to the results of four currently or formerly published likely voter models (MEDIAN, CVVM2017, CVVM2018, KANTAR), all computed using an identical dataset (September/October 2017 Median omnibus survey). Based on prior-set comparison criteria, the proposed model has the highest ranking out of all the compared models. Areas of future research proposed, namely exploring the relationship between prior voting behavior misreporting and voting preference trends, in accordance with cognitive...
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Likely voter model in February 2019
Pilnáček, Matouš
In a survey conducted by Public Opinion Research Centre in February 2019, we investigated how people trust to political Parties and whether they are willing to take part in elections to the Chamber of Deputies. In the press release there are two different types of information: the likely voter model and the party preferences. The likely voter model indicates anticipated result of hypothetical elections to the Chamber of Deputies in the time of conducting the survey. The party preferences give us information about public sympathy for political parties in the group of citizens who have voting right and there is also included a part of citizens who will not take part in elections or they do not know who to vote for.
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Methodological Optimization of the Median Research Agency's Likely Voter Model Based on Findings from Czech Household Panel Study
Kunc, Michal ; Buchtík, Martin (advisor) ; Soukup, Petr (referee)
The aim of this graduate thesis is proposing an optimization of the likely voter model parameter values utilized by Median (research agency) based on secondary analysis of data from the third wave and post-election follow-up of the Czech Household Panel Study 2017 and the Median omnibus survey. The theoretical chapter presents selected aspects of the analyzed likely voter model parameters. Secondary data analysis confirms hypotheses regarding the relationships of: 1) voter turnout, prior voting behavior and the intent to vote, 2) pre-election voting preferences and actual voting behavior, 3) reported prior voting behavior and time elapsed since the prior election. Hypotheses are confirmed, and analysis results are utilized in construction of an optimized likely voter model. This model's results are then compared to the results of four currently or formerly published likely voter models (MEDIAN, CVVM2017, CVVM2018, KANTAR), all computed using an identical dataset (September/October 2017 Median omnibus survey). Based on prior-set comparison criteria, the proposed model has the highest ranking out of all the compared models. Areas of future research proposed, namely exploring the relationship between prior voting behavior misreporting and voting preference trends, in accordance with cognitive...
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Likely voter model in October 2018
Pilnáček, Matouš
In a survey conducted by Public Opinion Research Centre in October 2018, we investigated how people trust to political Parties and whether they are willing to take part in elections to the Chamber of Deputies. In the press release there are two different types of information: the likely voter model and the party preferences. The likely voter model indicates anticipated result of hypothetical elections to the Chamber of Deputies in the time of conducting the survey. The party preferences give us information about public sympathy for political parties in the group of citizens who have voting right and there is also included a part of citizens who will not take part in elections or they do not know who to vote for.
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Likely voter model in September 2018
Pilnáček, Matouš
In a survey conducted by Public Opinion Research Centre in September 2018, we investigated how people trust to political Parties and whether they are willing to take part in elections to the Chamber of Deputies. In the press release there are two different types of information: the likely voter model and the party preferences. The likely voter model indicates anticipated result of hypothetical elections to the Chamber of Deputies in the time of conducting the survey.\nThe party preferences give us information about public sympathy for political parties in the group of citizens who have voting right and there is also included a part of citizens who will not take part in elections or they do not know who to vote for.
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Likely voter model in June 2018
Pilnáček, Matouš
In a survey conducted by Public Opinion Research Centre in June 2018, we investigated how people trust to political Parties and whether they are willing to take part in elections to the Chamber of Deputies. In the press release there are two different types of information: the likely voter model and the party preferences. The likely voter model indicates anticipated result of hypothetical elections to the Chamber of Deputies in the time of conducting the survey. The party preferences give us information about public sympathy for political parties in the group of citizens who have voting right and there is also included a part of citizens who will not take part in elections or they do not know who to vote for.
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Likely voter model in January 2018
Pilnáček, Matouš
In a survey conducted by Public Opinion Research Centre in January 2018, we investigated how people trust to political Parties and whether they are willing to take part in elections to the Chamber of Deputies. In the press release there are two different types of information: the likely voter model and the party preferences. The likely voter model indicates anticipated result of hypothetical elections to the Chamber of Deputies in the time of conducting the survey. The party preferences give us information about public sympathy for political parties in the group of citizens who have voting right and there is also included a part of citizens who will not take part in elections or they do not know who to vote for.
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