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The Impact of Short-term Interest Rate on Stock Prices in the Czech Republic
Michlian, Štefan ; Princ, Michael (advisor) ; Brechler, Josef (referee)
This thesis focuses on the relationship between short-term interest rate and stock prices. The main idea is that if interest-rate increases, it makes holding stocks less attractive relative to fixed income securities. Therefore, investors change the structure of their portfolios and switch capital from stocks to banks, which results in stock prices decrease. In our thesis, we apply GJR-GARCH-t-M model to study the impact of Czech interest rate (14-day PRIBOR) on the Prague Stock Exchange (the PX index). In contrast to the majority of research on this topic, we have found no impact of the PRIBOR rate on the PX index- neither on its mean nor on its volatility. We attribute the absence of a significant relationship to exceptional composition of the PX index. Furthermore, we have found that the recent crisis has significantly changed the behavior of the Czech stock market.
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An empirical study of impact of inclusion and exclusion from an Index on stock prices
Vellechová, Karolína ; Vozárová, Pavla (advisor) ; Fanta, Nicolas (referee)
This thesis studies the effect of index components changes on the stock prices of added and deleted components. Specifically, the thesis follows two market indexes from Western Europe, CAC 40 and DAX 30, in the period from financial crisis in 2008 to 2020. The theory of Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that index components change should not impact firm's price, because the index membership is supposed to have no new information, the findings of various researchers found out the opposite. There are several hypotheses, which try to explain these effects. In this thesis three methods were used to estimate the effect of addition and deletion, these were abnormal return, abnormal trading volume and close open difference calculation. The results obtained by all three methods were mostly consistent with the results of previous studies of the US indexes. The calculation of abnormal volume reported significant and expected results for both indexes, which suggested that the day before the change has the highest abnormal volume. Also, the results for close open differences discovered expected pattern, that the highest change happens usually on the day after announcement, which informs about how fast investors reply to index change. The abnormal returns for the CAC 40 index show expected significant...
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The Impact of Short-term Interest Rate on Stock Prices in the Czech Republic
Michlian, Štefan ; Princ, Michael (advisor) ; Brechler, Josef (referee)
This thesis focuses on the relationship between short-term interest rate and stock prices. The main idea is that if interest-rate increases, it makes holding stocks less attractive relative to fixed income securities. Therefore, investors change the structure of their portfolios and switch capital from stocks to banks, which results in stock prices decrease. In our thesis, we apply GJR-GARCH-t-M model to study the impact of Czech interest rate (14-day PRIBOR) on the Prague Stock Exchange (the PX index). In contrast to the majority of research on this topic, we have found no impact of the PRIBOR rate on the PX index- neither on its mean nor on its volatility. We attribute the absence of a significant relationship to exceptional composition of the PX index. Furthermore, we have found that the recent crisis has significantly changed the behavior of the Czech stock market.
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Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Automobile Stock Prices, An Impulse Response Analysis
Malárik, Lukáš ; Jánský, Ivo (advisor) ; Mikolášek, Jakub (referee)
The goal of this master thesis is to analyze impact of shocks in oil prices to automobile industry stock prices and returns. We decompose oil price shocks on oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks and oil-specific demand shocks and assess their individual impacts on these stock prices/returns. This is done using the vector autoregression (VAR) methodology which allows us to compute impulse responses, that is the reaction paths on the individual shocks. In addition to linear VARs we also employ threshold VAR models in order to capture nonlinearities in impulse responses and besides the aggregate automobile stock price index we compute these nonlinear impulse responses also for some selected individual car producers. We think that this analysis have two different uses. First, it can be beneficial to stock market investors. Second, it can be used by policymakers in countries such as Slovakia and the Czech Republic, which are relatively heavily dependent on automotive industry. 1
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