Home > Search Results: Sommer, Josef
Search:
Search Tips :: Advanced Search
Search collections:
Sort by: Display results: Output format:
National Repository of Grey Literature 2 records found  Search took 0.00 seconds. 
Evaluation of predictive ability of selected exchange rate models based on statistical methods
 Sommer, Josef ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Tran, Van Quang (referee)
This diploma thesis evaluates out-of-sample predictive ability of exchange rate models. The first part of the thesis summarizes existing empirical findings about exchange rate predictability and describes exchange rate models chosen to be evaluated. The second part of the thesis evaluates predictive ability of purchasing power parity, uncovered interest parity, monetary model and Taylor rule model. The exchange rate models are evaluated on CZK/EUR and CZK/USD currency pairs. The analysis is made using quarterly data from 1999 to 2013, while 2009 to 2013 period is reserved for forecast evaluation. The predictive ability of exchange rate models is evaluated in one quarter, one year and three years horizons. The exchange rate models are specified in first differences and estimated by ordinary least squares method. The forecasts are made using rolling regression. The exchange rate models are evaluated using RMSE, Theil's U, CW test and direction of change criterion. The diploma thesis concludes with description of own empirical findings.
Detailed record
Fundamental approaches to exchange rate determination and their validity in small transitive economy
 Sommer, Josef ; Mandel, Martin (advisor) ; Brůna, Karel (referee)
The bachelor thesis concerns the topic of exchange rate determination. The first part of the thesis focuses on exchange rate characterization and explanation of differences between fundamental analysis, technical analysis and efficient markets hypothesis. This part is then followed by description of traditional theories pursuing the impact of particular fundamental factors on exchange rate in the short, medium and long run. The second part of the thesis comprises the validation of purchasing power parity, interest rate parity, international Fisher effect and interest rate differential theory in case of the Czech Republic, a small transitive economy. The closing part of the thesis summarizes the empirical findings and attempts to explain the causes of deviations of exchange rate development from the path set up by fundamental approaches.
Detailed record

See also: similar author names
5 Sommer, Jakub
Interested in being notified about new results for this query?
Subscribe to the RSS feed.
Digital Repository :: Search :: Submit :: Personalize :: Help
Powered by Invenio v1.1.2
Maintained by admin.invenio@techlib.cz
This site is also available in the following languages:
Česky  English