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Austrian Business Cycle Theory and Its Application to Modern Economic Crises
Skala, Jakub ; Janotík, Tomáš (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
Business cycle that appeared in the US between 2002 and 2009 caused serious economic turmoil which affects the economic development until today. This paper examines the ability of Austrian business cycle theory to explain the cycle. The theory claims that disequilibrium on market for loanable funds appears after monetary expansion. As a result, interest rate does not correspond to individuals' preferences, which induces distortion in relative prices, capital misallocation, and unsuitable structure of production. The inevitable market correction then incurs economic recession. First, the paper describes the methodological origins of the theory and then summarizes its main principles. The description of the US economy during the examined period follows. At the end, the theory is confronted with reality. Although there are some minor differences between predictions of the theory and the actual development of the US economy, it can be concluded that Austrian business cycle theory can help us explain the recent business cycle.
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The housing bubble in China
Ba, Lei ; Novák, Jiří (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
Language: English Title: The Housing Bubble in China Abstract: This paper studies the housing price boom in recent decade since 2003 in China. The study focuses on four municipalities of China, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and Chongqing. Despite the fact that the whole country is suffering a sky soaring housing boom, this paper reveals a regional difference between two types of big cities. Better developed cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are experiencing greater volatility in the boom and economic fundamentals have less explanatory power to the price increases. Oppositely, less developed cities such as Tianjin and Chongqing have relatively sustainable housing prices which are better supported by economic fundamentals. Finally, this paper concludes that Beijing and Shanghai are experiencing a bubble in the housing prices, if the public expectation on economic growth cannot maintain, the bubble will burst.
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Comparative analysis of factors influencing children's smoking
Tesař, Tomáš ; Pertold, Filip (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
Smoking of children definitely is a huge social problem, which many governments around the world try to solve. Some of them are successful, other less. This paper focuses on the USA with the very good situation and, on the other hand, on the Czech Republic, where the situation is not so satisfactory. There are many factors that influence if a child smokes or not. And the main aim of this paper is to find the important factors in the both countries. Other aim is to compare significance of the factors' influence in the USA with the ones in the Czech Republic. Statistical description of datasets from NYTS survey in the USA in 2009 and from GYTS surveys in the Czech Republic in 2002 and 2007 show that there are less than 10% of child smokers in the age of 14 in the USA and the situation in the Czech Republic is getting better, although the amount of children who smoke is still three times higher. The influences of the factors are estimated by LPM methods, probit and logit models. American children are more affected by school class explaining danger and by other people who smoke in their presence, while the Czech children are mostly influenced by smokers among their closest friends and their parents.
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How Rewarding Is Technical Analysis? Evidence from Central and Eastern European Stock Markets
Hrušová, Ivona ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
This thesis assesses whether technical analysis can generate substantial profits in Central and Eastern European stock markets with a special focus on the Prague Stock Exchange. It investigates a well established trend follower MACD as well as a counter- trend indicator stochastic oscillator and relative strength index and introduces test statistics and bootstrap methodology in order to explore the profitability of these technical trading rules. The empirical results suggest that rewards of technical analysis differ according to individual stock markets. Whereas both indicators considered are found to yield significantly positive returns especially in the Bucharest and Prague Stock Exchanges, but have no predictive power on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The findings raise a question about the efficiency of the less developed stock markets.
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Profitability of technical analysis : evidence from Central and Eastern European stock markets
Hrušová, Ivona ; Teplý, Petr (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
This thesis assesses whether technical analysis can generate substantial profits in Central and Eastern European stock markets with a special focus on the Prague Stock Exchange. It investigates a well established trend follower MACD as well as a counter-trend indicator stochastic oscillator and introduces test statistics and bootstrap methodology in order to explore the profitability of these technical trading rules. The empirical results suggest that rewards of technical analysis differ according to individual stock markets. Whereas both indicators considered are found to yield significantly positive returns especially in the Bucharest and Prague Stock Exchanges, but have no predictive power on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The findings raise a question about the efficiency of the less developed stock markets.
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Analysis of Interdependencies among Central European Stock Markets
Mašková, Jana ; Baruník, Jozef (advisor) ; Princ, Michael (referee)
The objective of the thesis is to examine interdependencies among the stock markets of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Germany in the period 2008-2010. Two main methods are applied in the analysis. The first method is based on the use of high-frequency data and consists in the computation of realized correlations, which are then modeled using the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model. In addition, we employ realized bipower correlations, which should be robust to the presence of jumps in prices. The second method involves modeling of correlations by means of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) model, which is applied to daily data. The results indicate that when high-frequency data are used, the correlations are biased towards zero (the so-called "Epps effect"). We also find quite significant differences between the dynamics of the correlations from the DCC-GARCH models and those of the realized correlations. Finally, we show that accuracy of the forecasts of correlations can be improved by combining results obtained from different models (HAR models for realized correlations, HAR models for realized bipower correlations, DCC-GARCH models).
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Discrimination, information and cognitive effects : evidence from a field experiment in the Czech rental housing market
Bartoš, Vojtěch ; Princ, Michael (referee) ; Bauer, Michal (advisor)
Aim of this thesis is to shed light on discriminative behavior of landlords in the Czech rental housing market using our data from a double blind Internet field experiment. The experimental design allows us to study the processes of choice of the landlords deciding about inviting or not inviting a particular member of a minority group to a visit of the offered flat. We control for various characteristics that may influence the resulting outcome and we try to disentangle their effects. Mainly we control for the minority group effect, for the effect of education and several cognitive factors that, according to a rich socio-psychological and behavioral-economical literature, affect the decision making. We introduce an innovative tool that allows us to study landlord's behavior using a special online mouse tracking program based on widely used MouseLab. The thesis is a part of a comprehensive research studying discrimination of minorities and the role of information in the Czech rental housing market.
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The stock market volatility in the Czech Republic : rises and falls
Princ, Michael ; Netuka, Martin (advisor) ; Seidler, Jakub (referee)
The thesis concentrate on a volatility analysis os a stock market in the Czech Republic in years 1994-2009 including a comparison with a data available from world developed stock markets - namely European region, USA and Japan, econometric tools include GARCH model and its most popular derivates and generalisations I.E. IGARCH, EGARCH AND APARCH PROCESSES. The thesis is split into two main parts. The first part is devoted to a PSE volatility analysis based only on domestic data series involving GARCH class model estimations, forecasting abilities comparison and also a structural-break analysis based on the ICSS algorithm including the Inclan-Tiao test and its successors. Next part involves a dynamic analysis based on DCC MVGARCH model, which describes a change in a volatility spillover effect during the time. Data source used during the model estimation includes a development of stock indices and also net profits from point of view of Czech investor investing on global markets. It is furthermore supported by Granger causality estimation, which reveals a long-lasting unidirectional dependence of PSE on other developed markets. The complex results, which arise from a synergistic compound of particular econometric models, show that the stock market in the Czech Republic came through three main phases.
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Stock exchange in the Czech Republic : entry conditions
Princ, Michael ; Mejstřík, Michal (advisor) ; Žikeš, Filip (referee)
The bachelor thesis concentrate on evaluation of conditions for using common stock financing. We explain motivation for using diffent kind of financing methods from corporate finance and corporate governance point of view and put emphasis on relationship between debt and equity financing. We evaluate influences of stock market development, institutional framework and entry procedure problems. We come to conclusion that effects, which formerly caused prevalence of debt financing and obstructed effective stock market functioning, are developing in favour of common stock financing. Powered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org)
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