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Cross-border lending contagion in multinational banks
Derviz, Alexis ; Podpiera, Jiří
This paper studies the interdependence of lending decisions in different country branches of a multinational bank. This is done both theoretically and empirically. First, it formulates a model of a bank that delegates the management of its foreign unit to a local manager with non-transferable skills. Second, it constructs a large sample of multinational banks and their ranches/subsidiaries and look for the presence of lending contagion by panel regression methods.
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Determining factors of czech foreign trade: a cross-section time series perspective
Benáček, Vladimír ; Podpiera, Jiří ; Prokop, Ladislav
By quantifying the determining factors of Czech trade during 1993–2002, this paper enriches the empirical trade literature with evidence from an economy that has undergone intensive structural changes. Writer's findings lend ignificance to standard macroeconomic variables such as aggregate demand and the real exchange rate. Apart from these, however, liberalisation of tariffs, the evolution of unit prices of exports and imports, and economies of scale also played a significant role. An out-of-sample forecast for the trade balance was carried out for 2003–2004.
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Beyond Balassa - Samuelson: real appreciation in tradables in transtion countries
Cincibuch, Martin ; Podpiera, Jiří
Using the simple arbitrage model, writers of this work decompose real appreciation in tradables in three Central European countries between the pricing-to-market component (disparity) and the local relative price component (substitution ratio). Appreciation is only partially explained by local relative prices. The rest is absorbed by disparity, depending on the size of the no-arbitrage band. The observed disparity fluctuates in a wider band for differentiated products than for a commodity like goods.
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Consumers, consumer prices and the Czech business cycle identification
Podpiera, Jiří
This paper proposes an alternative method for deriving the business cycle. It interprets the varying inflationary responses to a constant demand shock in a partial equilibrium model. An above-average inflationary response indicates a boom phase and a below-average response shows an economic slowdown. Model uses data for prices and household budget shares which are not subject to revisions and are consistent with the inflation measure.
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Přeshraniční úvěrová nákaza v nadnárodních bankách
Derviz, Alexis ; Podpiera, J.
Lending contagion in multinational banks is studied theoretically and empirically. In the proposed model, contagion arises due to shareholder-manager delegation and precautionary motives. Empirically, more than one half of the multinational banks in our representative sample show signs of lending contagion.
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