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Jak nová keynesiánská phillipsova křivka odhaduje míru inflace v české ekonomice?
Dřímal, Marek ; Pošta, Vít (advisor) ; Čadil, Jan (referee)
This analysis studies the phenomenon of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve - its inception from the RBC theory and DSGE modelling via incorporation of nominal rigidities, and its various specifications and empirical issues. The estimates on Czech macroeconomic data using the Generalised Method of Moments show that the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve with the labour income share or the real unit labour cost as driving variables can be considered as an appropriate model describing inflation in the Czech Republic. Compared to other analyses, we show that the inflation process in the Czech Republic exhibits higher backwardness vis-a-vis other researchers' estimates based on US data.
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CAPM and its application in the business valuation
Vavrouch, Martin ; Pošta, Vít (advisor) ; Kulbakov, Nikolay (referee)
The Bachelor thesis deals with the use of CAPM within the business valuation process. In the first, theoretical, part, the DCF model is explained, the CAPM is derived and the link between the DCF model, used for intrinsic value computation, and CAPM, used for discount rate calculation, is shown. The second, practical, part concerns itself with the application of the theoretical model CAPM in the real world and on the real company ČEZ a.s. In this part the basic methods of CAPM computation are shown as well as the main pitfalls of this calculation. At the end of the second part, the valuation of ČEZ using DCF and the discount rate obtained from the CAPM is performed.The main goal is to demonstrate to the reader how to calculate the discount rate using CAPM and to calculate the actual discount rate of ČEZ.
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Exchange rate during crisis
Tran Thi, Anh Phuong ; Pošta, Vít (advisor) ; Rusmichová, Lada (referee)
The aim of this thesis analysis of exchange rates development during financial crisis of 2008 in the case of selected currency pairs. The thesis is focused primarily on empirical analysis of exchange rate movements in small open economies, namely the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. The theoretical part is devoted to balance of payments, exchange rate theories and economic crises 2008. The analytical part is devoted to the effects of major macroeconomic indicators on exchange rate development and empirical verification of major fundamental theories of exchange rate. The work explores the possible causes of fluctuations in exchange rates during recent crisis and their impact on the real economy.
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Picking stocks with the value investing strategy
Slánský, Filip ; Pošta, Vít (advisor) ; Makovský, Petr (referee)
The Bachelor thesis focuses on the whole process of picking stocks. In the first, theoretical, part, the importance of investing both in personal and corporate life is mentioned. It also describes the screening process of a stock market inluding the list of all used screening criterias, and the DCF pricing model, as one of the most used valuing methods out there. All the parts of DCF model (cost of capital, cashflow, growth, valuation) are explained there. In the second, practical, part, we use the screening proces to pick one company from NYSE (New York Stock Exchange). The company is National Oilwell Varco, Inc., and the DCF model is used to execute valuation of the company with all necessary calculations. In closing of the second part, the investment decision is carried out applying the concept of margin of safety, and final thoughts depict the possible flaws in the valuation, acquired insights and future recommendation.
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Foreign Exchange trading – theoretic solutions, practical experience
Hladík, Lukáš ; Makovský, Petr (advisor) ; Pošta, Vít (referee)
Main goal of this bachelor thesis is to summarize both theoretical and empirical approaches to FOREX trading. Moreover we were interested in the most modern trading strategies. At first we presented the theory of Market Efficiency hypothesis which is the most discussed theory among the FOREX market theories and practice. More the Market Efficiency hypothesis is the theoretical basis explaining the financial market mechanism. At second there are the classical approaches presented. These are the technical, fundamental and even psychological financial market analysis. In the empirical part we have analyzed the relation between the spot exchange rate EUR/CZK and forward rate. The forward rate is said to be an unbiased predictor of future spot exchange rate. In conclusion we discussed presented trading strategies which optimally utilized are able to earn above average profit rate.
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Labour market signaling and education
Bican, Vítězslav ; Macáková, Libuše (advisor) ; Pošta, Vít (referee) ; Volejníková, Jolana (referee)
The dissertation thesis deals with the problem of signaling behaviour at the labour market. It wants to shed more light on the difference between signaling and the traditionally accepted human capital theory, in order to find common points and distinctions. Both are later used in the model-parts of the thesis where I try to model demad for education and labour demand under both approaches. Both models are theorethical-based and explatin different possibilities how both these variables are formed in the labour market.
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Model CAPM
Burianová, Eva ; Pošta, Vít (advisor) ; Nováček, Jan (referee)
Cílem první části této bakalářské práce je - pomocí analýzy výchozích textů - teoretické shrnutí ekonomických modelů a teorií, na kterých model CAPM stojí: Markowitzův model teorie portfolia (analýza maximalizace očekávaného užitku a na něm založený model výběru optimálního portfolia), Tobina (rozšíření Markowitzova modelu ? rozdělení výběru optimálního portfolia do dvou fází; nejprve určení optimální kombinace rizikových instrumentů a následná alokace dostupného kapitálu mezi tuto optimální kombinaci a bezrizikový instrument) a Lintnera (alternativní přístup k separačnímu teorému). Ve druhé části popíši samotný model a jeho dnešní podobu. V poslední části budu vycházet z empirických studií E.Famy a K.Frenche a zhodnotím nedostatky modelu ? konkrétně vypovídací schopnost koeficientu beta, aproximaci tržního portfolia a předpoklad efektivnosti kapitálových trhů.
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Kvantitativní analýza hospodářského cyklu v České republice
Bocák, Petr ; Pošta, Vít (advisor) ; Potužák, Pavel (referee)
The aim of this thesis is to estimate monthly probability that the Czech economy is in a recession. For this purpose, I construct indexes of coincident and leading variables from multiple time series by Maximum Likelihood. Changes in coincident index are preceded by changes in the leading index by almost one year for peaks and about one month for troughs on average. To assess the probability of recession, I estimate multiple mixture models for growth rates of coincident index focusing on Markov-Switching specification for the latent business cycle process. I found that the two-state Markov-Switching AR (1) is superior to other models based on information criteria. Lagged values of leading index further improve the model fit but the model provides less clear signals of recessions compared to models based solely on coincident index.
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Analýza evropského energetického průmyslu se zaměřením na dopad opatření na snižování CO2 emisí
Sabová, Katarína ; Pošta, Vít (advisor) ; Hnilica, Jiří (referee)
The goal of this diploma thesis was to create a comprehensive overview of the recent devel-opment in the fight against the climate change in European Union and complement it with evidence on how the CO2 reduction measures impacted the energy industry. Firstly, the ener-gy industry of the European Union is introduced with its basic characteristics. Information on the climate change and on actions that have been established so far in order to fight the cli-mate change is also provided. Next, the theoretical knowledge from the environmental eco-nomics is presented together with the various concepts on how to address the issues connected with the externalities. EU ETS and renewable energy subsidies (FiTs) are further analyzed and practical insights on how the measures work are also offered. The practical part contributes with analyses of case studies of Germany and Czech Republic, in which the key success factors of the policies and their impact are assessed.
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Impact of productivity on current account behavior
Pivoňka, Tomáš ; Pošta, Vít (advisor) ; Pikhart, Zdeněk (referee)
This thesis is considered with impact of productivity on current account of Czech Republic. It is based on model presented by Glicka, R., and K. Rogoffa "Global versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Account". In this model productivity is distinguished on country specific and global productivity in countries of G-7. Other authors followed this model by extension or revision. In my thesis I was working with several series of productivity based on different data from some sectors of economy. To capture productivity is used Solow residuum of Cobb-Doublas production function. Country specific productivity shock worsen current account as initial model says. Analysis of time series revealed the most suitable series for description of current account behaviour as series of total industry with investment based on gross fixed capital formation.
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